Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[Stacsh]

57 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Absolute Mitt Crusher. Another State of Emergency declaration possible like in '78 if this is happens:

 

I feel like the models could be underestimating the warm Lake Michigan as well.  

[Hoosier]

Been thinking a lot about this setup.  For Chicago metro, I feel like where/how quickly the surface low really starts to explode is going to be a big factor.  If this process happens say about 6 hours sooner (and maybe only a few hours for the Indiana counties in LOT), then there could be substantially more precip pulled back westward toward the city.

[Andie]

I’ll let you guys have the frigid cold.  
As a Texas brat I’m spoiled to lows usually now worse than 20-22 in Jan.  
I know. Weather Forum Weenie!!

[Andie]

29 minutes ago, Niko said:

18z Euro is a beautiful hit for Detroit. It crushes the area.

 

Could we be looking at this:

I went through that in 1978 in Aurora, Ill.  
Dug snow for a week.  
Also, couldn’t leave fast enough.  It was then I realized I was a “dyed in the wool Texan.”  
Better suited for 102* that blizzards!

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, Andie said:

I went through that in 1978 in Aurora, Ill.  
Dug snow for a week.  
Also, couldn’t leave fast enough.  It was then I realized I was a “dyed in the wool Texan.”  
Better suited for 102* that blizzards!

That must have been a doozy. Yikes!

[Hoosier]

00z HRRR is fairly uninspiring.  Slow to get the low cranking farther south.  

The good news in that is that it can probably only trend better, instead of doing a stepdown with time.

[BMT]

NAM and 3KNAM both look promising for Eastern IA

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR is rather paltry for my area, the lowest of any model, because it's weak with the first wave.  However, the 00z 3kNAM and FV3 are quite good.

[jaster220]

46 minutes ago, Niko said:

18z Euro is a beautiful hit for Detroit. It crushes the area.

 

Could we be looking at this:

Far SEMI (Flint and south) actually got screwed pretty badly with '78 compared to the rest of the state. There was a narrow area where a warm bubble aloft brought north by the southern Low caused a prolonged period of mixing and ZR while just a county west in AA it was a full-on bliz. This "could" treat the Metro better than '78 if we indeed get the more easterly track and a timely bombing. Stay tuned..

[Clinton]

Just slightly better tilt on the FV3 made a nice jump in it's totals from it's previous run.  It wouldn't take much to get this puppy going.

12z Run

[jaster220]

You know those d3/4/5 NCEP maps that always look lame and disappointing except for other regions. Well not today

[Niko]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Far SEMI (Flint and south) actually got screwed pretty badly with '78 compared to the rest of the state. There was a narrow area where a warm bubble aloft brought north by the southern Low caused a prolonged period of mixing and ZR while just a county west in AA it was a full-on bliz. This "could" treat the Metro better than '78 if we indeed get the more easterly track and a timely bombing. Stay tuned..

Models are now bringing in the snow earlier (Thursday nite near or after midnite) vs Friday morning. Colder air coming in sooner. This arctic airmass is very strong, so I don't think the mixing issues will last long. This will go to an all out blizzard, especially very late Thurs (if not sooner) thru early Saturday. Friday will be an nightmare driving.  Airports are already cancelling flights.

[winterfreak]

The NAM was not a good start to the 0z suite…

[BMT]

HRRR is really the only Hi-Res model I'm not happy with this evening.  6+ would be sweet

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, Niko said:

Models are now bringing in the snow earlier (Thursday nite near or after midnite) vs Friday morning. Colder air coming in sooner. This arctic airmass is very strong, so I don't think the mixing issues will last long. This will go to an all out blizzard, especially very late Thurs (if not sooner) thru early Saturday. Friday will be an nightmare driving.  Airports are already cancelling flights.

Was just going to post that my fave SR model seems to have us switched over by 1 am Friday. Not a fan of the way it refuses to show a bombing SLP coming up from the south, but it's still a ways out. 

[gabel23]

The nam and high rez are picking up exactly what Jim flowers mentioned in the video today with a heavy band. Just what the Canadian model has been showing for a while now. That will determine who picks up 3-5”. I’m hoping that thing stays along the I-80 corridor and north like the Canadian. Otherwise I might get nothing but flakes. 

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Was just going to post that my fave SR model seems to have us switched over by 1 am Friday. Not a fan of the way it refuses to show a bombing SLP coming up from the south, but it's still a ways out. 

Looks beautiful. I think the SLP will eventually as more models capture more details, especially, once that piece of energy enters onshore.

Picture Postcard!

[gabel23]

5 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

The nam and high rez are picking up exactly what Jim flowers mentioned in the video today with a heavy band. Just what the Canadian model has been showing for a while now. That will determine who picks up 3-5”. I’m hoping that thing stays along the I-80 corridor and north like the Canadian. Otherwise I might get nothing but flakes. 

Definite clear banding setting up. Oh Canada has it way wider. Something to watch tonight. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Barf.

 

[mlgamer]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

So far the 00z mesoscale models have somehow gotten even worse for my area. Now showing less than an inch. What an absolute bust this thing has turned into out here.

Same thing here. Nothing more than wind-blown flurries if these early models verify (mostly around 0.10" QPF).

Edit: 00z RDPS slight QPF improvement from the 18z run from 0.2" to 0.3".

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Definite clear banding setting up. Oh Canada has it way wider. Something to watch tonight. 

I think the Canadian got an update last year, it seems a little better than it use to be.

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

So far the 00z mesoscale models have somehow gotten even worse for my area. Now showing less than an inch. What an absolute bust this thing has turned into out here.

I had impaled yesterday when the over-correcting GFS had me down to an inch. This ain't over. Actually not a flake has flown yet. Don't bail yet. I get the disappointment tho. 

[winterfreak]

0z RDPS:

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

0z RDPS:

Don't know if it's right but it sure has been consistent.

[jaster220]

DTX

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Don't know if it's right but it sure has been consistent.

Unlikely. Usually overdone.

[gabel23]

Not sure how to take this. Although this cold front is something we haven't seen in decades. Goes along with the banding that is showing up. 

 

 

 

[Madtown]

Well this is what we got going up this way. I am just on the bottom right edge of the white circle. 10" total and I'll be happy

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sure, there are always room for surprises especially when working with a highly anamolous cold airmass dropping down behind the front. But you guys have a bit more room for surprises than out here as we are relying solely on the initial band over performing while you guys have the added benefit of a very dynamic, potentially strong system developing very quickly practically overhead. Much higher likelihood for good surprises.

Honestly, while I am admittedly a little salty about how this looks to have turned out, ultimately we still have snow on the ground heading into Christmas which not everyone can say who is also getting screwed by this storm. So I don't have much room to complain, I suppose.

All those GFS Op runs a day or so ago (losing track of time, lol) that had Chicago and E Wisco getting bombed while I got more and more RN and dryslotting. Those runs were just a cycle or two from showing me getting 12+. Talk about a rug pulling! And I'm not sitting on a snow pack like your area. 

[BMT]

schools are closing more than a day in advance for this storm.  never seen that before.  

[Niko]

Here is something ya don't see everyday:

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

FWIW, it has done fairly good here on previous winter storms this season and I think I've read on the PNW side that it's also gotten a few things right over there. Moreso than say, the NAM.

I had no clue the CMC had jumped the GFS

How accurate is the CMC model?

 

 

The Canadian Model actually comes in second in accuracy with an accuracy correlation of 0.899. But NOAA's U.S. main model, called the Global Forecast System (GFS) is in third place at accuracy in this case. The five day accuracy is 0.894, and just slightly less accurate than the Canadian Model.Jun 17, 2020

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I had no clue the CMC had jumped the GFS

How accurate is the CMC model?

 

 

The Canadian Model actually comes in second in accuracy with an accuracy correlation of 0.899. But NOAA's U.S. main model, called the Global Forecast System (GFS) is in third place at accuracy in this case. The five day accuracy is 0.894, and just slightly less accurate than the Canadian Model.Jun 17, 2020

And that date is 2+ yrs old. Somebody hinted it's even better since supposed upgrade. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

And that date is 2+ yrs old. Somebody hinted it's even better since supposed upgrade. 

Well heck I'll just ride or die with the Canadian lol

[shakjen]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I had no clue the CMC had jumped the GFS

How accurate is the CMC model?

 

 

The Canadian Model actually comes in second in accuracy with an accuracy correlation of 0.899. But NOAA's U.S. main model, called the Global Forecast System (GFS) is in third place at accuracy in this case. The five day accuracy is 0.894, and just slightly less accurate than the Canadian Model.Jun 17, 2020

Just curious, how do they determine “accuracy”? Meaning, all models are more accurate closer to the event so is that accuracy 24 hours out or 48 or 72. And for a storm like this they were accurate pretty far out on wind and temp but WAY off on snow and timing. 

[Hoosier]

To my eyes the 00z GFS will be more impressive than 18z.

[Bellona]

Gfs holds well for Iowa peeps. 

[Clinton]

0z GFS gets the 6 inch line nosing back into mby.

[gabel23]

Yet another model coming in hot with the band! This one riding highway 92 from my area straight into downtown omaha! 

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, Niko said:

Here is something ya don't see everyday:

I could see that being extended. Back to the west where cold and snow more likely, and even some more for IN & OH even. 

Cannot remember if/when I last saw or noticed Lk Erie under a Storm Watch. Usually by the time these strong winter storms come together, that lake is mostly ice covered. Prolly went Storm Warned by upgrade tho during some autumn gale a few yrs ago. 

.MARINE...
A storm watch has been issued for all of Lake Erie starting at 12Z
Friday with a current end time of 15Z Saturday for the western basin,
and 0Z Sunday for the rest of the lake. A very strong cold front
will move west to east across the lake Friday morning, ushering in
strong, southwesterly winds of 40 to 50 knots with higher gusts of
60 to perhaps 65 knots possible. These strong, southwesterly winds
will persist through Friday into Saturday. Low water is also
possible across the western basin of the lake, with current
forecasts suggesting water levels to fall as low as 3 to 4 feet
below the low water datum. Finally, in addition to the strong winds,
an anomalously-cold air mass will descend south across the Great
Lakes. Heavy freezing spray will be likely across much of the lake
beginning Friday afternoon with the threat persisting through
Saturday. A Heavy Freezing Spray Watch may be needed going forward.