Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[mlgamer]

Just now, Clinton said:

12z models for mby, we shall see who wins.

NAM:  3.3

RGEM: 7.0

HRRR: 3.0

ICON: 3.5

FV3:  4.5

GFS:  5.0

CMC: 7.0

Euro:  2.5

 

That's not too bad Clinton. Maybe you'll come out with a decent event. Mine are all running about half that (except 6.0" on RGEM).

[jaster220]

27 minutes ago, tbone8 said:

Yes, and a blizzard is a very dangerous situation. Watched a documentary a few yrs ago about the 77 or 78 blizzard where a fella got out of his stuck vehicle and attempted to walk home a relatively short distance. He got disoriented and froze to death only a stones throw away from his home. Back in 78, very few folks had 4wd vehicles and most were smart enough to shelter inside during that storm. I fear today with everyone having a cell phone and an suv, some will feel bulletproof with this dangerous storm potentially costing them their lives. I let people close to me know to be off the roads NLT 6pm and stay put till it is over!

In '78, a Toledo plow truck operator broke down or got stuck? (can't remember). Thought he'd just walk for help -died. And that wasn't way out in the country somewhere on a dead-end road. I've seen the story you mention too. Tragic

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

That's not too bad Clinton. Maybe you'll come out with a decent event. Mine are all running about half that (except 6.0" on RGEM).

The GFS and Canadian models are the best for us no doubt.  18z HRRR is a slight improvement down here but a big jump to our north.  Grizz has to be happy about this.

 

[Niko]

Skies have clouding and sure does look and smells like snow. You can tell by the cloud deck that snow is coming.

[tStacsh]

I'll tell you one thing.  It's usually "warm" ahead of a big storm like this.   Which usually kills any snowpack we had.  Looks like I will still have a depth of around 7-8" by the time this starts.  Something I don't remember seeing ahead of a potential monster snowstorm, let alone a blizzard.  

[BMT]

latest RAP

[CentralNebWeather]

Had our last day of school today for the semester. Off for the next 2 weeks. Yeah. 18 degrees with heavy fog and some sort of granules falling. Everything frosted over. Waiting for the front and hopefully the good snow band. 

[tStacsh]

To me it seems, the models are not as "intense" as they were yesterday.   So I'll just get a blizzard and not the mega blizzard that could have been.  Sounds perfect to me.  

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Tony said:

This is what happens when we try to steal away a storm that was meant for the East Coast!  Not doing this ever again.

 

[Bellona]

Both NAM's look decent anyone along and north of 80 in Iowa

[Grizzcoat]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Up to 1.3 inches here as of 2PM with snow tapering off for now.

GFS had us at 0.3 and Euro at 0.6, both by 3PM. RGEM was at 1.7 and NAM at 1.0, both by 2PM.

thanks for the update...

[mlgamer]

3 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Several models have shown this scenario where KC is sandwiched between higher amounts.  If you asked me to draw a picture of what it's like to live in KC during the winter in terms of snow, it would be something like this.

And you would have many, many years of images to choose from...lol

[Andie]

13 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I'll tell you one thing.  It's usually "warm" ahead of a big storm like this.   Which usually kills any snowpack we had.  Looks like I will still have a depth of around 7-8" by the time this starts.  Something I don't remember seeing ahead of a potential monster snowstorm, let alone a blizzard.  

I totally agree. Texas is really bad about having an unseasonably warm day then the bottom falls out.  

We’re at 49 and may see 51-2 today. 
Theres a low of 9 tomorrow.  
Mt Cedar is off the charts. Everyone sick as hell and a 43 degree change won’t help!

Hitting allergy meds, literally showering pollen off of me.  It’s the only time I wish I wasn’t here. Hawaii might be nice. 

(Yeah, right, that’ll happen)

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I'll tell you one thing.  It's usually "warm" ahead of a big storm like this.   Which usually kills any snowpack we had.  Looks like I will still have a depth of around 7-8" by the time this starts.  Something I don't remember seeing ahead of a potential monster snowstorm, let alone a blizzard.  

Not sure about yby, but generally the LES belts had a depth around 12" when '78 hit. But yeah, most biggies like '67, '99, '00 etc started from scratch. GHD-1 and 2 had good to nice depth pre-storm.

@Tom noticeably absent in here

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

And you would have many, many years of images to choose from...lol

I could lend a plethora of images from here of misses in all directions.

[winterfreak]

17 minutes ago, BMT said:

latest RAP

This one is my favorite so far lol.

[BMT]

Just now, winterfreak said:

This one is my favorite so far lol.

Ha... i hope you score a few inches after every model has been shafting you.  

[tStacsh]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure about yby, but generally the LES belts had a depth around 12" when '78 hit. But yeah, most biggies like '67, '99, '00 etc started from scratch. GHD-1 and 2 had good to nice depth pre-storm.

@Tom noticeably absent in here

If I remember correctly we had around 4" or so ahead of GHD-1.  I was drinking and spent the night at my brother's house though...

[jaster220]

GRR morning snippit. This is one of the "oldies" for that office and usually very low-key.

All things considered though a consensus blend of latest short to
medium range guidance still supports significant snow late
Thur/Thur night through Friday. Some of our guidance is likely
underdone with snowfall amounts since falling temps through the
day Friday will lead to increasingly favorable snow ratios. Snow
combined with very strong winds will cause blizzard conditions
regardless of how much snow ultimately falls across our area.

[bud2380]

3k NAM

 

[Andie]

And now for something completely different.  
Lake effect snow in Texas….honest. 
 

I live near the far west lake. 

[james1976]

Had a lull but now snow is filling back in. Cleared 1.3" off the patio table. Let's get this thing rolling.

[Clinton]

25 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Several models have shown this scenario where KC is sandwiched between higher amounts.  If you asked me to draw a picture of what it's like to live in KC during the winter in terms of snow, it would be something like this.

There is about 60 miles between your place and mine and the differences in weather are amazing sometimes.  Last February was a big example of that.

[mlgamer]

15z SREF plumes made a big jump for me again. Mean is 7.50". These are usually overdone for me. But still, have no idea why the big jump.

[gosaints]

starting to see a solid signal for dendrite growth in the overnight hours.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

15z SREF plumes made a big jump for me again. Mean is 7.50". These are usually overdone for me. But still, have no idea why the big jump.

Just noticed that and the SREF Mean all of a sudden looks good.  Not sure what to make of that.

The 3z had this earlier today.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

I've found myself looking at these experimental snowfall forecasts.  They failed miserably for last weeks lake effect snow.  So who knows how good they actually are.  Last week I had less than a 10 percent chance of seeing over 6" of snow.  I got 14.5"   So clearly it is struggling with lake effect.  

You guys will get crazy convection coming off LM and streaming east all the way into Detroit.  I can't wait to see what the radar is going to look like.  Buckle up for one hellova wintry period!

 

44 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I'll tell you one thing.  It's usually "warm" ahead of a big storm like this.   Which usually kills any snowpack we had.  Looks like I will still have a depth of around 7-8" by the time this starts.  Something I don't remember seeing ahead of a potential monster snowstorm, let alone a blizzard.  

This x100 is probably the best Snow on Snow scenario you get to experience.  We've had plenty of cold air out ahead of this system and the cold behind is about as extreme as it gets this time of year.  Enjoy the show!

 

31 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure about yby, but generally the LES belts had a depth around 12" when '78 hit. But yeah, most biggies like '67, '99, '00 etc started from scratch. GHD-1 and 2 had good to nice depth pre-storm.

@Tom noticeably absent in here

I've been non-stop busy since I arrived at the house doing final yard clean up, grocery shopping, just picked up a new Christmas Tree, going to make an attempt to put up some last minute Christmas lights outside if I finish up in time.  Plus I have work to do and answer calls from clients...I literally just stepped in the read up on posts and I have to go back outside.

[Tom]

ORD SREF's up to 10" mean...as @Clintonposted, looks good to me but we'll see if its onto something or not...

[OmahaSnowFan]

Not the main “show” but everything developing just barely to the east of me and moving away with this initial batch

[Bellona]

Arx discussion suggests 20:1 snow ratios, perhaps higher. Mentioned latest data would put northeast Iowa/Southwest WI in 6-8 inches. A good increase from the 3-5 from earlier.

[Bellona]

1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Not the main “show” but everything developing just barely to the east of me and moving away with this initial batch

That sucks mate! One of these days you will score huge! Might be the year 2222, but eventually.

 

[Clinton]

18z RGEM believe! lol

[westMJim]

Well we now have the much anticipated  Blizzard warning so now everyone has officially been "warned" I stopped at Meijer to pick up a couple of things for Christmas. In looking at how busy Meijer was I would think they would like a Blizzard warning every other week. The grocery section was very busy the  merchandise area not so much. And boy the shelves are very bare. Looking at some peoples carts one would think that they plan on being snowed in for a month. I have more than enough food for more than two weeks. The longest I have ever been "snowed" in was for 5 days and that was in the 1967 storm. In 1978 I lived in a small town and they had the streets plowed on the night the snow stopped and we could drive around the whole town but just could not leave the  village. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

ORD SREF's up to 10" mean...as @Clintonposted, looks good to me but we'll see if its onto something or not...

The SREF's can be fickle sometimes but gets your attention when it jumps this close to the event.  Maybe EAX will discuss it in their afternoon AFD.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yikes!!

[Jayhawker85]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z RGEM believe! lol

This model has been very persistent in providing a good snow cover to much of the reason unlike the other popular models. What if this model actually verifies!!

[Jayhawker85]

There is some radar returns over us but is not reaching the ground. Hopefully this will help saturate the air early and will be a preview for later tonights event 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This model has been very persistent in providing a good snow cover to much of the reason unlike the other popular models. What if this model actually verifies!!

That would be amazing.  It's not flinching yet.

[winterfreak]

The RGEM is still drying out little by little with each run. SREF’s are notoriously unreliable as well. I’ll ride the EURO. DAB-2”.