Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[bud2380]

We've been watching this one for days already.  All signs point to a storm somewhere.  So far models have been fairly judicious in giving a large portion of our forum a White Christmas out of this.  So hopefully that holds true.   The 12z Euro is shown below, which really went crazy this run with heavy snow.  

 

 

[gabel23]

Nice Cresent Moon screw hole right through Nebraska love it. 

[Hawkeye]

The surface temp map is pretty wild.  Cedar Rapids initially drops to near zero, but the storm is so wrapped up it pulls warm air back into eastern Iowa.

[Hoosier]

This is one of the most impressive pressure gradients I have ever seen modeled in this part of the country.

Power outages/wind damage would be a real possibility, besides it being a blizzard.

[hawkstwelve]

With the changes on ICON/UKMET/GEM/Euro today, certainly feels like we are at a turning point in forecasting this upcoming pattern. Going to be hard to not start getting excited.

[gabel23]

If in fact the LRC is somewhere between 45-50 days, this would be exactly 47 days after the negative tilted trough moved through back on Nov. 3rd-5th. This is what I have in my notes.

 

[Bellona]

14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The surface temp map is pretty wild.  Cedar Rapids initially drops to near zero, but the storm is so wrapped up it pulls warm air back into eastern Iowa.

That right there is a thing of beauty!

[Hoosier]

Not a forecast, but just some perspective.

The GHD storm in 2011 had about a 56 mb pressure gradient between the surface high and low.  What the Euro is progging is substantially more.

[Tony]

This really changes things big time. Unfortunately, many more runs to go but some consistency in the modeling today.

[hawkstwelve]

Big move on the EPS as well. All good things!

[Hoosier]

This wraps warm air north and cold air underneath with the best of them.

[mlgamer]

The storm track for the Nov 3-6 storm shows up nicely on these 24-hr precip maps for Nov 5 and Nov 6. This would be a great track for me and points northeast if the upcoming storm were to pan out in a similar fashion...and strength.

24-hrs 7:00 AM EST NOV 5th

 

24-hrs 7:00 AM EST NOV 6th

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not a forecast, but just some perspective.

The GHD storm in 2011 had about a 56 mb pressure gradient between the surface high and low.  What the Euro is progging is substantially more.

My thoughts yesterday mirror yours today...check out this animation of peak wind gusts per the 12z Euro and the WALL of WIND behind the arctic front...my goodness!

 

 

The "Baffin Bay Ridge" is increasingly stronger and also more ridging downstream over Ontario will dictate the ultimate track...

 

If you look at the Vorticity animation below, it appears the main energy of this system is already in the upper air network sliding down the West Coast of Canada, then stalling out while it "waits" for a weak peace of energy that peals off the huge trough NW of Hawaii.  This is also a key player in this complex scenario.  I am encouraged to see the models somewhat show consistency that a formidable storm is going to hit our Sub.

[CentralNebWeather]

Sure hope it slows down and comes farther west.  This is not good signs for Nebraskans if you look at these maps from November.  Much rather have a scenario more like the ICON or Canadian.  Will be fun to watch the evolution of this.  Not getting my hopes as we usually tend to be disappointed in these scenarios.

[Clinton]

This storm really cranks of the LES @bud2380may want to extend the dates through Christmas.

[Tom]

12z CMCE have also shifted West with the storm and causing more of a rain storm along the EC.  Could the MW/GL's steal and EC bomb??  

[Clinton]

25 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The storm track for the Nov 3-6 storm shows up nicely on these 24-hr precip maps for Nov 5 and Nov 6. This would be a great track for me and points northeast if the upcoming storm were to pan out in a similar fashion...and strength.

24-hrs 7:00 AM EST NOV 5th

 

24-hrs 7:00 AM EST NOV 6th

You shared this back on Nov 5th look how the comma head rotated through your area.

[Tom]

12z GEFS showing several big hitters...

 

[bud2380]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GEFS showing several big hitters...

 

The GEFS looks a lot like the Euro.  

[tStacsh]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GEFS showing several big hitters...

 

I'll take #5 and not care about winter ever again.

[bud2380]

Just have to post this for fun.  

 

[Hawkeye]

If we do get a blizzard, the snow ratio will probably be closer to 10:1 due to the flakes getting blown apart as they fall and then blown around and compacted on the ground.  My measured ratio is always trash when there is strong wind.

[mlgamer]

23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You shared this back on Nov 5th look how the comma head rotated through your area.

Just reread that thread and forgot I had posted that. Even mentioned the storm coming back around Christmas. Should be interesting tracking the models in the coming days...

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

If we do get a blizzard, the snow ratio will probably be closer to 10:1 due to the flakes getting blown apart as they fall and then blown around and compacted on the ground.  My measured ratio is always trash when there is strong wind.

Yes, that is something to keep in mind.  I have seen like 12:1 or 14:1 in blizzard conditions but it's hard to get much above that when it's so windy.  

I remember making a call of 20-30" in Chicago for GHD 2011.  Actual amounts were in range but more toward the lower end... I think because of underestimating the wind impact.

[hawkstwelve]

Nice change on the 12z EPS control.

 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, that is something to keep in mind.  I have seen like 12:1 or 14:1 in blizzard conditions but it's hard to get much above that when it's so windy.  

I remember making a call of 20-30" in Chicago for GHD 2011.  Actual amounts were in range but more toward the lower end... I think because of underestimating the wind impact.

Yup, GHD-1 was mostly pixie dust flake size...no fatty's whatsoever till we got the back-end LehS/LES band that puked 1-2"/hr for about a couple hours or more.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=10&year=2011&month=2&day=2&hour=0&minute=25

[tStacsh]

From GRR: 

 

  AS THIS CHANGE IN AIR MASS OCCURS, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE   LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND MONITOR THE ORIENTATION OF UPPER   LEVEL HEIGHTS AND POSSIBLE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CUSP OF THIS   ARCTIC AIR BLAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM   ARE DEPICTING BORDERLINE WILD CYCLOGENESIS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN   LATER NEXT WEEK. THESE TYPES OF SOLUTIONS ARE NOT UNCOMMON AT THIS   FORECAST RANGE AND FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE TEMPTING TO DISCARD   THEM AS FANTASY, A CLOSER LOOK AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECE AND   CMC REVEALS THAT THERE ARE SOME MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT A DEPENDING   LOW IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES. NOTABLY, WHILE THE ECE STILL FAVORS   THE EAST COAST TO HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR A DEEP   LOW / NOR'EASTER, THERE WAS A JUMP IN MEMBERSHIP FROM THE 00Z   SUITE TO THE 12Z SUITE THAT SHOWS A GREAT LAKES CYCLONE   DEVELOPING. THESE FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE   UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT WE CAN SAY THAT   THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL RISK FOR A WINTER STORM MID TO LATE NEXT   WEEK WITH POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT TO FOLLOW THAT.  

[gosaints]

This thread length is going to be epic

[tStacsh]

30 minutes ago, gosaints said:

This thread length is going to be epic

Too far out still.  Could end up a dud.  Although, Someone is going to be happy (most likely me, I have have Lake effect insurance).  Some are going to be very disappointed.  

[hawkstwelve]

18z ICON upped totals through D5.

[bud2380]

DVN isn't buying the Euro solution yet.

 

A shortwave rotating around the upper level low over
southeastern Canada is forecast to dive into the northern US
Wednesday night into Thursday. The ECWMF has a much more intense
clipper-like storm system than the GFS. It is also producing more
precipitation than the GFS. The lower QPF seems more likely at the
moment given the cold air in place across the region.  Precipitation
would fall as all snow. On Thursday, the pressure gradient will
intensify across the area and bring gusty northwest winds and strong
cold advection. High temperatures on Thursday into Friday are
currently in the single digits above zero with lows in the single
digits below zero. This seems more likely with a snowpack across the
region. At this time range though considerable uncertainty remains
with this storm system on the exact timing, track, and intensity.
Those with travel plans next week should keep an eye on the forecast
over the next several days.

[winterfreak]

18z GFS looking appetizing so far…

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is closer, but the big upper low over southeastern Canada, which the Euro does not have, forces the storm farther south.

GFS

Euro

[bud2380]

GFS no bueno around here.  Way further south/west and suppressed.  It's nothing like the Euro.  Takes the storm into the low Ohio/TN valley region. Still manages to spit out a few inches IMBY though.  

 

[bud2380]

I hope nobody here lives in the big screw hole in IL on this run. A good chunk of this total map comes from the Monday system that the GFS is clinging on to.  If that actually materializes, some areas of IA/NE/MO and KS could get a nice surprise snow. 

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS definitely had a move to the Euro/GEM/ICON/UKMET camp. First map shows the 500mb change between 12z and 18z runs, which is fairly large shift similar to what we saw with the 12z Euro. Totals end up reflecting this change and coming more in-line with the better camp of models. 

Pretty sure we are seeing the GFS blink and the 00z GFS should finish off the transition to the more west-based storm track with the low wrapping up into the Great Lakes region. Obviously a little ways to go to determine the exact track but I love seeing this consistency start to develop among the models.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS definitely had a move to the Euro/GEM/ICON/UKMET camp. First map shows the 500mb change between 12z and 18z runs, which is fairly large shift similar to what we saw with the 12z Euro. Totals end up reflecting this change and coming more in-line with the better camp of models. 

Pretty sure we are seeing the GFS blink and the 00z GFS should finish off the transition to the more west-based storm track with the low wrapping up into the Great Lakes region. Obviously a little ways to go to determine the exact track but I love seeing this consistency start to develop among the models.

Great analysis and I’m in agreement that we will see the GFS correct west in future runs.  This storm has huge potential to be a memorable storm system for the MW/OHV.  I just got a feeling that every will line up.

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS is closer, but the big upper low over southeastern Canada, which the Euro does not have, forces the storm farther south.

GFS

Euro

That feature (or lack of) is certainly a key player in this setup.

[Hoosier]

What I'd like to see on a model run -- and maybe I'll get my wish soon -- is something close to the Euro/GFS intensity but more in the OV.  I'd like to see what that would look like wind-wise around Chicago with the full fetch down the lake.  

[Tony]

Lots of moving parts associated with this storm so we will see lots of model inconsistencies from run to run at least into Monday. Good news so far is GFS is on its own and has been correcting its way back towards the other models. Either way we have a major storm(Blizzard) on the horizon for Christmas week so "buckle up". 

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What I'd like to see on a model run -- and maybe I'll get my wish soon -- is something close to the Euro/GFS intensity but more in the OV.  I'd like to see what that would look like wind-wise around Chicago with the full fetch down the lake.  

Imagine what a Buffalo like fetch in the Chi-Town would look like. 

[Clinton]

It's not often I get to post these in 2 different storm threads at the same time but this week is different.  Another good write up from EAX.

The focus then becomes what to make of a potential system on
Thursday. Deterministic models, primarily the GFS and the EC seem to
be increasingly aggressive with the impacts for the local area.
Previous runs seemed to have more of a glancing, open-wave, clipper
type system with minimal moisture and fleeting lift. However the
EC`s latest run has indicated a close mid level low dropping into
the central CONUS, with a surface trough drawing moisture northward
into the charged up system. The GFS isn`t closed with this system,
but has been insistent on having useful moisture in place for at
least some accumulating snow. The one thing that does seem certain
with this Thursday time frame is that a massive blast of cold air
will very aggressively encroach the area. This will cause wholesale
decrease in temperatures to dangerously low levels for the rest of
the week, and Christmas weekend. It may also bring hazardous winds.
the EC has indicated a strong low level pressure gradient, which may
bring high winds with it. The GFS hasn`t produced quite the same
gradient, but winds will still be gusty on Thursday. The big
question with all this will be just how organized this system can
get with respect to useful moisture. If it can draw in some moisture
before it`s arrival we could see an impactful system prior to
Christmas weekend. There`s of course much much uncertainty
regarding all this, and subsequent model runs may actually
decrease these potential impacts quite a bit. But given its
proximity to the Holiday season and potential large scale travel
this Thursday system bears watching.

The frigid temperatures will remain in place likely through
Christmas weekend. Temperatures Thursday and Friday morning will be
extremely cold, with actual temps likely approaching or dropping
below 0. With the aforementioned strong winds it`s possible to see
wind chills go 15 to 25 degrees below zero both mornings.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Tony said:

Imagine what a Buffalo like fetch in the Chi-Town would look like. 

Whoa there now.  

I keep trying to stay reserved, but it's hard to not dream about the potential with this storm.  I would literally be ok with punting the rest of winter if we could get the highest end scenario to pan out.

[Black Hole]

Model runs showing brutal arctic cold even down here with 925 mb temps challenging all time record lows. Some models showing significant snows too. Could see below zero readings if that worked out. Going to be some fun model riding coming up. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Just have to post this for fun.  

 

I love snow. I have witnessed  some incredible  monster noreasters having lived in the hills of Maryland  and Pennsylvania. But if Ottumwa  Iowa were to receive  20 to 30 inches of snow and 10 foot drifts this would change my life. We are responsible  for so many properties  I probably  wont sleep for 10 days, neither will our employees. 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is one of the most impressive pressure gradients I have ever seen modeled in this part of the country.

Power outages/wind damage would be a real possibility, besides it being a blizzard.

Doesn't even get my area strong winds. Toss pls

[jaster220]

Last 6 runs of the Euro Op focused on Thurs 7 am:

 

[jaster220]

First the GFS is an EC special and too far east. Now most models go too far west. Great stuff. Chasing my 2" scraps again as usual. New CPC map today has the "Heavy Snow" line LESS THAN 3 MILES North of mby. Cannot make this sh+t up I swear. I know it's not done changing but only those couple runs where the Euro had the SLP running W to E treated this corner of The Mitt good. Everything else has been the usual garbage. Thus why the MEAN refuses to get beyond blues here. Which when halved for reality is the 2" I am left chasing. Going to be a great LOW party here again like in Nov.

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Doesn't even get my area strong winds. Toss pls

Right.  Reason being that the gradient is stronger further west.  

For the real big wind scenario to pan out (in an overall sense, not specific to anyone's backyard), we're going to need BOTH a very deep surface low and very intense surface high.  Preferably a low deepening through the 980s (or lower) and a surface high in the 1050s.  Failing on just one of those will make it a run of the mill windy snowstorm.

[winterfreak]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

First the GFS is an EC special and too far east. Now most models go too far west. Great stuff. Chasing my 2" scraps again as usual. New CPC map today has the "Heavy Snow" line LESS THAN 3 MILES North of mby. Cannot make this sh+t up I swear. I know it's not done changing but only those couple runs where the Euro had the SLP running W to E treated this corner of The Mitt good. Everything else has been the usual garbage. Thus why the MEAN refuses to get beyond blues here. Which when halved for reality is the 2" I am left chasing. Going to be a great LOW party here again like in Nov.

I feel all of this. Welcome to the club. At least you have LES…right?