Jump to content

Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22


bud2380

Recommended Posts

 

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

First the GFS is an EC special and too far east. Now most models go too far west. Great stuff. Chasing my 2" scraps again as usual. New CPC map today has the "Heavy Snow" line LESS THAN 3 (about 7) MILES North of mby. Cannot make this sh+t up I swear. I know it's not done changing but only those couple runs where the Euro had the SLP running W to E treated this corner of The Mitt good. Everything else has been the usual garbage. Thus why the MEAN refuses to get beyond blues here. Which when halved for reality is the 2" I am left chasing. Going to be a great LOW party here again like in Nov.

(oops) Fixed above for the 22nd. Apparently the snow stops on the 23rd?? And I forgot this storm crosses the CPC map cut-off dates. They actually do have mby in the Heavy Snow/High Winds/BN temps risk on Christmas Eve Day on their d8-14 map. I'm back on my horse.. 

955484494_22-12-16CPCHazardsd8-14.png.a661dda2582e0bcc6d85d086c1a7766a.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Tom

As Hoosier noted, the dates prolly need extending on the thread title if my region may still be in action on the 24th, not to mention follow-on LES

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wondering how depressed @Niko is since NYC is no longer looking to score?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 00z GFS is not good at all.  The energy is weaker and there's no improvement in the general flow.  It's just a modest clipper for some of us.

I'm now not expecting much good from the rest of the models tonight.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z GFS is not good at all.  The energy is weaker and there's no improvement in the general flow.  It's just a modest clipper for some of us.

I'm now not expecting much good from the rest of the models tonight.

I still put more stock in the Euro than any other model.  If the Euro takes a huge turn for the worse tonight, then I'll be concerned.  but just 10 hours ago, it showed 20" for eastern Iowa, so the potential is still there.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still too far away to expect much consistency. Then we go thru that part of the cycle where it falls back out of ROAB network once it gets away from AK. That always causes more wild ups-n-downs. Monday b4 we have a better picture imo.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Stacsh Boom! buried. Don't even have to look at the snow map

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_24.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The UK 500 mb flow is very close to the 12z, but, ultimately, like the Canadian, the upper low closes off too far northeast, so the storm overall doesn't wrap up until it's northeast of Iowa.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Still too far away to expect much consistency. Then we go thru that part of the cycle where it falls back out of ROAB network once it gets away from AK. That always causes more wild ups-n-downs. Monday b4 we have a better picture imo.

Monday will be the day that our wave reemerges into the Pacific.  😛

  • Facepalm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gonna pretend that I didn't see that run, lol.

Absolutely crippling blizzard in a box centered over Lake Michigan, rivaling or exceeding GHD 2011 around Chicago/Milwaukee and especially over in northern IN and western MI. 

Too early for details, but one thing catching my eye on the modeling is the eventual slowdown of the surface low.  This would tend to prolong the wind event.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Windy 1
  • Shivering 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

0Z Euro

3C6F1C43-3219-41AD-9FBF-1BADE11BC775.jpeg

Between snow amounts and wind, we would begin to enter into the theater of the absurd if something like that happens.  One thing to put those crazy amounts where few people live, but Gary to South Bend and northward... that area is decently populated.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Between snow amounts and wind, we would begin to enter into the theater of the absurd if something like that happens.  One thing to put those crazy amounts where few people live, but Gary to South Bend and northward... that area is decently populated.

This would qualify as a rare severe blizzard if it were to verify 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Kuchera ratios will be overinflated if it's that windy, but just posting this zoomed in map from COD for posterity.  

ECMWFNIL_prec_kuchsnow_192.png.5c58182dfe5cfa9f36fa67ff5a641286.png

That's a weenie snow map for the Ages...I'll match that with this pretty one!  BTW, max wind gusts over LM are in the low 70's Knots (75 knot max = 86 mph!).  My, oh my, that would be a historic Blitz if this comes close to anything like this.

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

0z EPS has really blossomed the outreach of the SN shield...

 

image.png

 

image.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

0Z Euro

3C6F1C43-3219-41AD-9FBF-1BADE11BC775.jpeg

Enters serious rare air for sure

 

NWS Bliz of 78-GRR Snow Map.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I gotta tell ya, the Bomb Potential with this storm has been on the rise among the ensemble members each day.  What is noteworthy, are some of the EPS members and GEFS members showing a similar outcome to the Euro Op.  


We also have the GEPS shifting the storm track farther West...more now in line with the EPS....

image.gif

 

image.gif

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

I mean, they are a pretty good outfit and a growing business.  Gotta give them props to be able to thrive in a competitive field.

Yes they are very good but tend get little carried away sometimes. I do however agree an extreme event is definitely on the table if the pieces come together right

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...