Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not a forecast, but just some perspective.

The GHD storm in 2011 had about a 56 mb pressure gradient between the surface high and low.  What the Euro is progging is substantially more.

Any idea what the pressure gradient between the surface high and low was for this?

 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Any idea what the pressure gradient between the surface high and low was for this?

 

I'd have to double check, but at the max (when the low was down in the 950s) I believe it was around 75-80 mb.  So that gradient is similar to what the 12z Euro had.

IF IF IF something like the Euro verified, it would not be out of the question to see a burst of 70-80 mph gusts on the west/southwest side of the surface low... kind of like what happened in Cleveland in 1978 when the arctic front passed through there.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Right.  Reason being that the gradient is stronger further west.  

For the real big wind scenario to pan out (in an overall sense, not specific to anyone's backyard), we're going to need BOTH a very deep surface low and very intense surface high.  Preferably a low deepening through the 980s (or lower) and a surface high in the 1050s.  Failing on just one of those will make it a run of the mill windy snowstorm.

I think the potential is certainly there for whichever portion of the Sub this ends up hitting. The problem with a Sub that's half the nation wide is that inevitably somebody's back yard gets shafted. That's why I'm a fan of the W to E sliders vs a cutter, let alone a hard cutter. The slider puts much more of us in the game and not riding the bench. I am a fan of the epic bombs no doubt, it's just tough right now being the furthest north area of our Sub that is continually riding the bench in some form or another. Hoping for improvements ofc, just hard to expect any the way things have gone. Dec 15 '87 worked out ok for SEMI despite bombing west. The occlusion saw it go from T-showers back to a good 4" of snow. E winds were ferocious in the pre-dawn hours. That 12z Euro with the crazy isobars in Iowa - and that's 1 am conditions mind you! 

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd have to double check, but at the max (when the low was down in the 950s) I believe it was around 75-80 mb.  So that gradient is similar to what the 12z Euro had.

IF IF IF something like the Euro verified, it would not be out of the question to see a burst of 70-80 mph gusts on the west/southwest side of the surface low... kind of like what happened in Cleveland in 1978 when the arctic front passed through there.

Everything I've read say there were some 100 mph gusts in W or NWOH, plus the 106 gust off shore in Lk Erie. That was basically a deepening CAT-3 hurricane tho. Deepest baro for a non-tropical SLP at those latitudes. Hit 950 mb in Lk Huron but not over land so wasn't given its proper due in the actual data set. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, winterfreak said:

I feel all of this. Welcome to the club. At least you have LES…right?

Not really. There are LES "belts" in MI, but Detroit is anything but. In just the right scenario, we can get a little bit like in Nov there was 1-2" amounts with the arctic front. Ripped like a bliz for about 30 or 40 mins and it was done. 

[jaster220]

 

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

First the GFS is an EC special and too far east. Now most models go too far west. Great stuff. Chasing my 2" scraps again as usual. New CPC map today has the "Heavy Snow" line LESS THAN 3 (about 7) MILES North of mby. Cannot make this sh+t up I swear. I know it's not done changing but only those couple runs where the Euro had the SLP running W to E treated this corner of The Mitt good. Everything else has been the usual garbage. Thus why the MEAN refuses to get beyond blues here. Which when halved for reality is the 2" I am left chasing. Going to be a great LOW party here again like in Nov.

(oops) Fixed above for the 22nd. Apparently the snow stops on the 23rd?? And I forgot this storm crosses the CPC map cut-off dates. They actually do have mby in the Heavy Snow/High Winds/BN temps risk on Christmas Eve Day on their d8-14 map. I'm back on my horse.. 

[jaster220]

@Tom

As Hoosier noted, the dates prolly need extending on the thread title if my region may still be in action on the 24th, not to mention follow-on LES

[jaster220]

Wondering how depressed @Niko is since NYC is no longer looking to score?

[winterfreak]

Not that the ICON matters, but it took a big jump towards the GFS on the 0z run.

[winterfreak]

0z GFS is uhh… storm, what storm? What a disaster. Not a good start to the 0z suite.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS-

[Hawkeye]

The 00z GFS is not good at all.  The energy is weaker and there's no improvement in the general flow.  It's just a modest clipper for some of us.

I'm now not expecting much good from the rest of the models tonight.

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z GFS is not good at all.  The energy is weaker and there's no improvement in the general flow.  It's just a modest clipper for some of us.

I'm now not expecting much good from the rest of the models tonight.

I still put more stock in the Euro than any other model.  If the Euro takes a huge turn for the worse tonight, then I'll be concerned.  but just 10 hours ago, it showed 20" for eastern Iowa, so the potential is still there.  

[Hawkeye]

Well, the 00z GDPS (Canadian) is nearly identical to the 12z, so it did not cave at all.

[mlgamer]

32 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Not that the ICON matters, but it took a big jump towards the GFS on the 0z run.

This is what got my attention...

[winterfreak]

CMC stayed the course. Don’t have much faith in it though. UKIE and EURO on deck…

[jaster220]

Still too far away to expect much consistency. Then we go thru that part of the cycle where it falls back out of ROAB network once it gets away from AK. That always causes more wild ups-n-downs. Monday b4 we have a better picture imo.

[jaster220]

@Stacsh Boom! buried. Don't even have to look at the snow map

[bud2380]

UK

Really bad where I live.  

[winterfreak]

UKIE still on board with the cutter idea. We all know what we’re really waiting on… at 5 1/2-6 days out.

[Hawkeye]

The UK 500 mb flow is very close to the 12z, but, ultimately, like the Canadian, the upper low closes off too far northeast, so the storm overall doesn't wrap up until it's northeast of Iowa.

[Hoosier]

55 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Still too far away to expect much consistency. Then we go thru that part of the cycle where it falls back out of ROAB network once it gets away from AK. That always causes more wild ups-n-downs. Monday b4 we have a better picture imo.

Monday will be the day that our wave reemerges into the Pacific.  

[Hoosier]

A little late, but here's a loop of the 12z Euro.  Because who knows if we will see another run as crazy as that 

[winterfreak]

0z EURO holding serve through 120.

[winterfreak]

6 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

0z EURO holding serve through 120.

Not as amped as 12z.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is close to 12z, but is a bit more progressive so it's east of Iowa before it wraps up.

[hawkstwelve]

Not quite as hefty with QPF but still pretty nice and looks better for Nebraska folks!

[Hoosier]

Gonna pretend that I didn't see that run, lol.

Absolutely crippling blizzard in a box centered over Lake Michigan, rivaling or exceeding GHD 2011 around Chicago/Milwaukee and especially over in northern IN and western MI. 

Too early for details, but one thing catching my eye on the modeling is the eventual slowdown of the surface low.  This would tend to prolong the wind event.

[OmahaSnowFan]

0Z Euro

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

0Z Euro

Between snow amounts and wind, we would begin to enter into the theater of the absurd if something like that happens.  One thing to put those crazy amounts where few people live, but Gary to South Bend and northward... that area is decently populated.

[Hoosier]

Kuchera ratios will be overinflated if it's that windy, but just posting this zoomed in map from COD for posterity.  

[Naptownwx]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Between snow amounts and wind, we would begin to enter into the theater of the absurd if something like that happens.  One thing to put those crazy amounts where few people live, but Gary to South Bend and northward... that area is decently populated.

This would qualify as a rare severe blizzard if it were to verify 

[Madtown]

A European BEAST!

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Kuchera ratios will be overinflated if it's that windy, but just posting this zoomed in map from COD for posterity.  

That's a weenie snow map for the Ages...I'll match that with this pretty one!  BTW, max wind gusts over LM are in the low 70's Knots (75 knot max = 86 mph!).  My, oh my, that would be a historic Blitz if this comes close to anything like this.

 

 

 

0z EPS has really blossomed the outreach of the SN shield...

 

 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

0Z Euro

Enters serious rare air for sure

 

[Tom]

0z EPS members...

 

 

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z EPS members...

 

 

Lots of good hits and cutters.  Ensemble 5, 7 and 18 hummm

[Tom]

I gotta tell ya, the Bomb Potential with this storm has been on the rise among the ensemble members each day.  What is noteworthy, are some of the EPS members and GEFS members showing a similar outcome to the Euro Op.  

We also have the GEPS shifting the storm track farther West...more now in line with the EPS....

 

 

[Tom]

0z GEPS...expanding the snow shield farther W and S... @OKwx2k4

[Tom]

@BAMWx made this comparison to the '78 Blizzard...

 

[Naptownwx]

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

@BAMWx made this comparison to the '78 Blizzard...

 

I really wish they would be more responsible. 

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Naptownwx said:

I really wish they would be more responsible. 

I mean, they are a pretty good outfit and a growing business.  Gotta give them props to be able to thrive in a competitive field.

[Money]

Looking forward to some tracking again this year! 

[Naptownwx]

 

[Naptownwx]

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

I mean, they are a pretty good outfit and a growing business.  Gotta give them props to be able to thrive in a competitive field.

Yes they are very good but tend get little carried away sometimes. I do however agree an extreme event is definitely on the table if the pieces come together right

[Money]

12z ICON with significant improvements compared to 0z (Through HR 120)

[Money]

12Z ICON 

[Naptownwx]

The icon is coming in strong

[winterfreak]

12z ICON back to showing something closer to yesterday’s 12z solution.

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

12z ICON back to showing something closer to yesterday’s 12z solution.

Would be close to a blizzard for KC