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Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22


bud2380

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is one of the most impressive pressure gradients I have ever seen modeled in this part of the country.

Power outages/wind damage would be a real possibility, besides it being a blizzard.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.thumb.png.5641f2e14bc1d61a8541ed42a339f5b9.png

Doesn't even get my area strong winds. Toss pls

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Last 6 runs of the Euro Op focused on Thurs 7 am:

 

trend-ecmwf_full-2022121512-f168.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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First the GFS is an EC special and too far east. Now most models go too far west. Great stuff. Chasing my 2" scraps again as usual. New CPC map today has the "Heavy Snow" line LESS THAN 3 MILES North of mby. Cannot make this sh+t up I swear. I know it's not done changing but only those couple runs where the Euro had the SLP running W to E treated this corner of The Mitt good. Everything else has been the usual garbage. Thus why the MEAN refuses to get beyond blues here. Which when halved for reality is the 2" I am left chasing. Going to be a great LOW party here again like in Nov.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Doesn't even get my area strong winds. Toss pls

Right.  Reason being that the gradient is stronger further west.  

For the real big wind scenario to pan out (in an overall sense, not specific to anyone's backyard), we're going to need BOTH a very deep surface low and very intense surface high.  Preferably a low deepening through the 980s (or lower) and a surface high in the 1050s.  Failing on just one of those will make it a run of the mill windy snowstorm.

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

First the GFS is an EC special and too far east. Now most models go too far west. Great stuff. Chasing my 2" scraps again as usual. New CPC map today has the "Heavy Snow" line LESS THAN 3 MILES North of mby. Cannot make this sh+t up I swear. I know it's not done changing but only those couple runs where the Euro had the SLP running W to E treated this corner of The Mitt good. Everything else has been the usual garbage. Thus why the MEAN refuses to get beyond blues here. Which when halved for reality is the 2" I am left chasing. Going to be a great LOW party here again like in Nov.

I feel all of this. Welcome to the club. At least you have LES…right?

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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not a forecast, but just some perspective.

The GHD storm in 2011 had about a 56 mb pressure gradient between the surface high and low.  What the Euro is progging is substantially more.

namussfc2011020121.gif.531fd42e31e47908ca2a5bb93eff6d28.gif

Any idea what the pressure gradient between the surface high and low was for this?

 

954mb 1-26-78.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Any idea what the pressure gradient between the surface high and low was for this?

 

954mb 1-26-78.PNG

I'd have to double check, but at the max (when the low was down in the 950s) I believe it was around 75-80 mb.  So that gradient is similar to what the 12z Euro had.

IF IF IF something like the Euro verified, it would not be out of the question to see a burst of 70-80 mph gusts on the west/southwest side of the surface low... kind of like what happened in Cleveland in 1978 when the arctic front passed through there.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Right.  Reason being that the gradient is stronger further west.  

For the real big wind scenario to pan out (in an overall sense, not specific to anyone's backyard), we're going to need BOTH a very deep surface low and very intense surface high.  Preferably a low deepening through the 980s (or lower) and a surface high in the 1050s.  Failing on just one of those will make it a run of the mill windy snowstorm.

I think the potential is certainly there for whichever portion of the Sub this ends up hitting. The problem with a Sub that's half the nation wide is that inevitably somebody's back yard gets shafted. That's why I'm a fan of the W to E sliders vs a cutter, let alone a hard cutter. The slider puts much more of us in the game and not riding the bench. I am a fan of the epic bombs no doubt, it's just tough right now being the furthest north area of our Sub that is continually riding the bench in some form or another. Hoping for improvements ofc, just hard to expect any the way things have gone. Dec 15 '87 worked out ok for SEMI despite bombing west. The occlusion saw it go from T-showers back to a good 4" of snow. E winds were ferocious in the pre-dawn hours. That 12z Euro with the crazy isobars in Iowa - and that's 1 am conditions mind you! 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd have to double check, but at the max (when the low was down in the 950s) I believe it was around 75-80 mb.  So that gradient is similar to what the 12z Euro had.

IF IF IF something like the Euro verified, it would not be out of the question to see a burst of 70-80 mph gusts on the west/southwest side of the surface low... kind of like what happened in Cleveland in 1978 when the arctic front passed through there.

Everything I've read say there were some 100 mph gusts in W or NWOH, plus the 106 gust off shore in Lk Erie. That was basically a deepening CAT-3 hurricane tho. Deepest baro for a non-tropical SLP at those latitudes. Hit 950 mb in Lk Huron but not over land so wasn't given its proper due in the actual data set. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, winterfreak said:

I feel all of this. Welcome to the club. At least you have LES…right?

Not really. There are LES "belts" in MI, but Detroit is anything but. In just the right scenario, we can get a little bit like in Nov there was 1-2" amounts with the arctic front. Ripped like a bliz for about 30 or 40 mins and it was done. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

First the GFS is an EC special and too far east. Now most models go too far west. Great stuff. Chasing my 2" scraps again as usual. New CPC map today has the "Heavy Snow" line LESS THAN 3 (about 7) MILES North of mby. Cannot make this sh+t up I swear. I know it's not done changing but only those couple runs where the Euro had the SLP running W to E treated this corner of The Mitt good. Everything else has been the usual garbage. Thus why the MEAN refuses to get beyond blues here. Which when halved for reality is the 2" I am left chasing. Going to be a great LOW party here again like in Nov.

(oops) Fixed above for the 22nd. Apparently the snow stops on the 23rd?? And I forgot this storm crosses the CPC map cut-off dates. They actually do have mby in the Heavy Snow/High Winds/BN temps risk on Christmas Eve Day on their d8-14 map. I'm back on my horse.. 

955484494_22-12-16CPCHazardsd8-14.png.a661dda2582e0bcc6d85d086c1a7766a.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Tom

As Hoosier noted, the dates prolly need extending on the thread title if my region may still be in action on the 24th, not to mention follow-on LES

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wondering how depressed @Niko is since NYC is no longer looking to score?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The 00z GFS is not good at all.  The energy is weaker and there's no improvement in the general flow.  It's just a modest clipper for some of us.

I'm now not expecting much good from the rest of the models tonight.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z GFS is not good at all.  The energy is weaker and there's no improvement in the general flow.  It's just a modest clipper for some of us.

I'm now not expecting much good from the rest of the models tonight.

I still put more stock in the Euro than any other model.  If the Euro takes a huge turn for the worse tonight, then I'll be concerned.  but just 10 hours ago, it showed 20" for eastern Iowa, so the potential is still there.  

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Still too far away to expect much consistency. Then we go thru that part of the cycle where it falls back out of ROAB network once it gets away from AK. That always causes more wild ups-n-downs. Monday b4 we have a better picture imo.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Stacsh Boom! buried. Don't even have to look at the snow map

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_24.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The UK 500 mb flow is very close to the 12z, but, ultimately, like the Canadian, the upper low closes off too far northeast, so the storm overall doesn't wrap up until it's northeast of Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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55 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Still too far away to expect much consistency. Then we go thru that part of the cycle where it falls back out of ROAB network once it gets away from AK. That always causes more wild ups-n-downs. Monday b4 we have a better picture imo.

Monday will be the day that our wave reemerges into the Pacific.  😛

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Gonna pretend that I didn't see that run, lol.

Absolutely crippling blizzard in a box centered over Lake Michigan, rivaling or exceeding GHD 2011 around Chicago/Milwaukee and especially over in northern IN and western MI. 

Too early for details, but one thing catching my eye on the modeling is the eventual slowdown of the surface low.  This would tend to prolong the wind event.

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4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

0Z Euro

3C6F1C43-3219-41AD-9FBF-1BADE11BC775.jpeg

Between snow amounts and wind, we would begin to enter into the theater of the absurd if something like that happens.  One thing to put those crazy amounts where few people live, but Gary to South Bend and northward... that area is decently populated.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Between snow amounts and wind, we would begin to enter into the theater of the absurd if something like that happens.  One thing to put those crazy amounts where few people live, but Gary to South Bend and northward... that area is decently populated.

This would qualify as a rare severe blizzard if it were to verify 

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Kuchera ratios will be overinflated if it's that windy, but just posting this zoomed in map from COD for posterity.  

ECMWFNIL_prec_kuchsnow_192.png.5c58182dfe5cfa9f36fa67ff5a641286.png

That's a weenie snow map for the Ages...I'll match that with this pretty one!  BTW, max wind gusts over LM are in the low 70's Knots (75 knot max = 86 mph!).  My, oh my, that would be a historic Blitz if this comes close to anything like this.

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

0z EPS has really blossomed the outreach of the SN shield...

 

image.png

 

image.png

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6 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

0Z Euro

3C6F1C43-3219-41AD-9FBF-1BADE11BC775.jpeg

Enters serious rare air for sure

 

NWS Bliz of 78-GRR Snow Map.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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