Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[Hoosier]

Comical differences between the GFS and ICON at 96-108 hrs.

[jcwxguy]

Almost drops too far west for us in eastern nebaska

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

While we're waiting on other models, it's kind of cool to loop the 00z ICON and watch the surface low.  At 111 hrs it's around Lake Michigan, and then you see it readjust south and deepen explosively as heights crash southeast and the wave rounds the base of the trough.  Other models have been doing this kind of thing as well... just varying with location/magnitude.

17/0z or 18/0z??

[winterfreak]

Oof,  not a good look on the 0z GFS.

[Bellona]

Ouch that GFS run...

[gosaints]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

Goalposts are gonna be huge for at least another 24 hours

[Money]

Storm starts to wrap up around HR 126 MI/IN/OH do well 

[Money]

Big differences on the 0z GEM…

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

17/0z or 18/0z??

The 00z 18

[winterfreak]

3 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Yeah.  7 inches in Kc the week of Christmas sucks. 

Not just talking about imby…

[Hoosier]

Nothing has really looked like the GFS.  I'd cautiously toss/weight lower at this point.

[Money]

GEM looks more like the icon than the GFS but still a much weaker solution 

[Money]

GEM 

[Hawkeye]

Frankly, I'm not feeling great about this.  It's just too progressive and not digging early enough for Iowa.

[MKEstorm]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nothing has really looked like the GFS.  I'd cautiously toss/weight lower at this point.

Honestly, I really only care what the EURO shows at this point!

[Black Hole]

Obviously multiple pieces in play here, but right before it all gets going there is the main low in SE Canada and a second somewhat connected low in SC Canada. Seems that when more "energy" is exchanged between the two and the western low is weaker it doesn't dig as much and shoves east faster. But not just that, it's also weaker. 

[Money]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Frankly, I'm not feeling great about this.  It's just too progressive and not digging early enough for Iowa.

Everything has to go right and when there’s so many things in play it won’t take much to screw it up

If everything comes together though…watch out 

 

plenty of time for changes yet for good or bad 

[jaster220]

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The 00z 18

Hmm. TT wasn't loaded yet for me. Are you getting from paid option somewhere?

[mlgamer]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Frankly, I'm not feeling great about this.  It's just too progressive and not digging early enough for Iowa.

Same here. More like a cold front with a narrow window for advisory level snow is my gut feeling. Oddly enough, I wouldn't be surprised if I got more snow with Monday's small system. Keeping an open mind though...

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nothing has really looked like the GFS.  I'd cautiously toss/weight lower at this point.

Maybe but makes the statement that it continues to move towards the Euro a little bit untrue. Yes, it moved from an EC to a GL's storm, but not all the way west to Lk Mich SLP. Still could obviously, but just noticing where it has shifted in past 24 hrs or so. Keeps OH Peeps dreams alive for sure. 

[Money]

Ukie caved and shifted way towards the GFS..

[jaster220]

GFS was an OH special

[Bellona]

Wow, quickly turned to nothing special around here.

[jaster220]

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nothing has really looked like the GFS.  I'd cautiously toss/weight lower at this point.

18/0z suite making my call for tamer storm run(s) look good (or bad depending on your zip code). I obviously need the further SE track, but some of the deepening seen in former GFS/Euro runs. Not sure if I can get the best of both worlds tbh. Could see this going back to more amped and a RN-->SN here by the time full sampling is in play. Going to be a long week of not getting much focus at the office. 

[winterfreak]

I’ll take the 0z UKIE here. Definitely flatter though… 

[Money]

Ukie 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

I’ll take the 0z UKIE here. Definitely flatter though… 

I'd take that path if it were much more amped. Did that go limp or what?

[Hoosier]

UKMET looked like it was going to be a huge bomb into the Lakes, but then it just sort of shunted east.

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hmm. TT wasn't loaded yet for me. Are you getting from paid option somewhere?

It was on TT for me.

[winterfreak]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'd take that path if it were much more amped. Did that go limp or what?

Yeah, that’s been the theme with tonight’s set of model runs.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

UKMET looked like it was going to be a huge bomb into the Lakes, but then it just sort of shunted east.

I'm kinda ok at this range with things not getting too amped and becoming an MSP/Wisco special. Plenty of time for the models to go back to at least a bit more amped solution(s) that hopefully makes most on here happy. Would be great to see a Big Dog work out for the Lwr Lakes as well as those SW of us. 

[Hoosier]

If you only saw this...

 

What would you think the next few frames would look like?

Actual result:

[Hawkeye]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

UKMET looked like it was going to be a huge bomb into the Lakes, but then it just sort of shunted east.

The problem is up in Canada.  Just north of the lakes, the 00z run lowered the heights considerably compared to previous runs, which forces the storm's energy to slide much farther south and east.

[Hoosier]

32 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The problem is up in Canada.  Just north of the lakes, the 00z run lowered the heights considerably compared to previous runs, which forces the storm's energy to slide much farther south and east.

Yeah I see that. 

Onto the Euro.

[Hoosier]

Wouldn't say this often from this distance, but this is becoming pretty failproof for Chicago as far as achieving a plowable snow.  There's certainly ways that it ends up not being a big storm, but that's not what I'm talking about.

Even if a GFS solution verifies, it would prolong the favorable fetch into the city for lake enhancement.  Other models aren't as favorable with the lake enhancement there, but have more snow from the synoptic storm.

[Money]

I don’t see too much changes on euro at hr 90 compared to 12z. Looks similar so far 

[Money]

3 MB weaker and a tad east at 114 but overall pretty identical track. We’ll see if it bombs out again in a few frames 

[Hawkeye]

Certainly no problem with lower heights over southeast Canada on the Euro.  The whole thing just takes off too far east for Iowa.

[Money]

Euro 

[Hawkeye]

I sure hope we can get a couple inches out of this so the ground isn't bare when the arctic air moves in.  Of course, even if we do get a couple inches, the wind will scour the ground.