October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Freeze Warning...Fail...clouds stuck around and prevented temps to drop below freezing.  So far, temps only down to 33F.  Let's try this again Monday night.

[Niko]

Currently at 39F w cloudy skies.

[Niko]

I'm guessing that by end of next week, all trees here will have gone bare. Currently at peak color. Lots of trees are bare!

[VMB443]

We made it down to 30 at the airport here - dropped a few degrees even as the sun started coming out.

[Hawkeye]

All of eastern Iowa got down to the low to mid 20s overnight, with a couple towns hitting 19.  CR hit 21.

[Tom]

We made it down to 30 at the airport here - dropped a few degrees even as the sun started coming out.

Same here...when I got up this morning at 6:00am ORD had a temp of 36F, when the clouds cleared just before sunrise, temps actually dipped to 33F by around 7:30am.

[westMJim]

With the 9.36” of rain that had fallen at GRR this is not only the wettest October in recorded history at Grand Rapids it is also the 6 wettest all time month as will and we are within reach of 5^th place as that currently is 9.52” that fell in September of 1981.  Also even with the recent cool down October mean here is still 56.9° (+5.3°) and while that will go down over the next 3 days this month will still be above average and one of the warmest October’s in the last 20 years.

[westMJim]

All of eastern Iowa got down to the low to mid 20s overnight, with a couple towns hitting 19.  CR hit 21.

 

 

Same here...when I got up this morning at 6:00am ORD had a temp of 36F, when the clouds cleared just before sunrise, temps actually dipped to 33F by around 7:30am.

On this side of the lake it was much warmer it only got down to 38° officially  at GRR and 37° here at my house and that was with some clearing

[Tom]

MKE has another chance at seeing their first flakes later tonight...

 

[jaster220]

Forecasted to hit 30, but I see that the trough axis stalled out while a SLP formed over head keeping clouds in place and temps from getting any lower. Hit 33F briefly. But, that little LP has created a nice streamer off of Lk Mich from S Haven to Kzoo. A few random showers inland have frozen precip on radar but they've missed Marshall so far.

[Tom]

Forecasted to hit 30, but I see that the trough axis stalled out while a SLP formed over head keeping clouds in place and temps from getting any lower. Hit 33F briefly. But, that little LP has created a nice streamer off of Lk Mich from S Haven to Kzoo. A few random showers inland have frozen precip on radar but they've missed Marshall so far.

I've noticed a lot of favorable days this month that should produce LES events for you guys in S MI in the cold season.

[jaster220]

I've noticed a lot of favorable days this month that should produce LES events for you guys in S MI in the cold season.

Yeah, wasn't playing it up, but you're correct. And the gales expected during Monday look to bring another round of perfect wind vectors for my area of SWMI (94 corridor)

[Niko]

EC Bomber!

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/5mie5j.png

[Niko]

Temps neva got outta the 40s today. Very Octoberish looking day.

[Niko]

Forecasted to hit 30, but I see that the trough axis stalled out while a SLP formed over head keeping clouds in place and temps from getting any lower. Hit 33F briefly. But, that little LP has created a nice streamer off of Lk Mich from S Haven to Kzoo. A few random showers inland have frozen precip on radar but they've missed Marshall so far.

Its a bit early still. Wait till next month. We got a ton coming this Winter!

[Minny_Weather]

72* today on my balcony. Nice warm day to heat my apartment back up before the next few cold, breezy days.

[jaster220]

72* today on my balcony. Nice warm day to heat my apartment back up before the next few cold, breezy days.

Wow, you guys really do bounce around. I got out of the 30's for about 5 hrs, that's it. I think it was Thursday since we saw 50

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, you guys really do bounce around. I got out of the 30's for about 5 hrs, that's it. I think it was Thursday since we saw 50

We're not as wacky as Denver but yeah it's not uncommon to have 20 degree temperature differences from day to day. Hell, we may have a 30 degree difference between today's high and tomorrow's high.

[jaster220]

EC Bomber!

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/5mie5j.png

Umm, what model is that, the North Korean? I can't find any major model lower than 971 mb in NY State.

[Niko]

Umm, what model is that, the North Korean? I can't find any major model lower than 971 mb in NY State.

No idea...a friend of mine in NY emailed it to me. I think its 00z Euro.

[Niko]

Currently at 41F under mostly cloudy skies. A warm-up coming by weeks end b4 it turns colder again. Highs may approach the upper 60s end of next week into early next week.

[Minny_Weather]

I love the part where NAM shows the line of snow dissolving right before it gets here.

[Niko]

TWC is currently "Live" talking about the big storm that is battering the EC and also "Live" reporters reporting from all sorts of locations. Great job guys.

[Niko]

Radar showing some snowshowers to my west. Looks like they are making a B-line towards my area. Currently this morning temps are in the upper 30s (37F to be exact).

[jaster220]

Yeah, wasn't playing it up, but you're correct. And the gales expected during Monday look to bring another round of perfect wind vectors for my area of SWMI (94 corridor)

 

 But, I think I will now. The overnight into early morning hours of Halloween looks like my best chance yet to score some flakes out of this pre-winter cold spell: 

 

 

 

AFD:

 

782

FXUS63 KGRR 301150

AFDGRR

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

750 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

 

LATEST UPDATE...

Aviation

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

 

Cold and unsettled today and Tuesday with numerous rain showers.

The rain will mix with or change to snow tonight and early Tuesday

inland from Lake Michigan and some minor wet snow accumulations

are possible on the grass. Temperatures will moderate mid week,

but more rain showers will return Wednesday night and Thursday as

another low pressure system approaches.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

 

Main fcst challenge is precipitation types and potential for some

light snow accumulations. Main threat for snow is from about

midnight tonight through mid morning Tuesday and best threat of

accumulation up to an inch is in the higher elevations north of

Big Rapids, but also cannot rule out a coating on the grass

elsewhere with the exception of the immediate Lk MI shoreline.

 

Overall little impact expected, but still an early taste of wintry

weather. Not a very pleasant pattern for trick or treat time

tomorrow with wind chills expected to be in the lower 30s.

 

Expect shower coverage to increase/expand this morning with

arrival of shortwave and westerly flow lake enhancement. Initially

early this morning the best coverage will be west of Hwy 131 but

as winds increase and H8 temps continue to fall behind the cold

front we should see showers spreading across the entire area

toward noon.

 

The convection should also take on more of a cellular nature this

afternoon as deeper mixing develops. Deep inversion heights

around 10K feet may lead to some briefly heavier showers with

gusty winds. Fcst soundings support a mix of rain and snow north

of I-96 but inland from lk mi through about mid morning today

before temps warm.

 

Some fairly healthy scattered lake effect convection should

persist tonight and Tuesday as we remain anchored in the H5 trough

with H8 temps around -6C. Cooling sfc temps will support a higher

potential for snow 03z-15Z Tuesday.

[Niko]

Its a cold day today. Temp so far at 41F during midday hour.

[Niko]

Lots of power outages in NYC and surrounding areas. I have been getting emails all around. Damage reports have also been seen there.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm liking model trends regarding snow showers here tomorrow. I don't care about accumulations yet, I just want to see flakes.

[gabel23]

I'm liking model trends regarding snow showers here tomorrow. I don't care about accumulations yet, I just want to see flakes.

Seen some flakes this afternoon. It was even blowing around on the road; getting me in the mood!!

[westMJim]

I was on the other (northeast) side of town a while ago and there was rain mixed with wet snow flakes. Also on the news they had pictures of hail that cover the ground and over at the lake shore there were reports of water spouts on the lake. They had pictures of the hail cover the ground and a waterspout. Her at my house at this time getting a heavy rain shower (temperature is now down to 38° but just rain here) with a good amount of wind and falling leaves. 

[St Paul Storm]

Snow showers here most the day. Didn’t accumulate with temps in the mid 30s. Speaking of snow, tomorrow marks the anniversary of the Twin Cities’ biggest snowstorm ever (1991). A 3-day event where 28.4” fell at MSP and 37” in Duluth. Cars in Minneapolis were buried in a frozen glacier until April. Man I wished I lived here for that one.

[jaster220]

Winds are howling out there and with the low baro Lake Michigan would really be responding deeper into the cold season. We'd be getting raked with some areas getting squalls and near bliz conditions no doubt. I've seen these strong clippers when I lived in NMI and some prime locales would get a foot plus, but it's much more rare downstate. This would be the entire state tho by the looks of radar

[james1976]

Light snow/sleet mix right now. Happy Halloween and hello Winter!

[jaster220]

https://youtu.be/IuNdXF0md4A

 

Some dramatic video of a funnel cloud that came ashore in Ludington. This one shows a lot of hail, another one from the north side had a bunch of snow falling. Twisters-n-snow awesome!

[Hawkeye]

Today was quite cold... got stuck at about 40 with strong wind all day.

[Niko]

Very chilly day today with showers on and off. Raw and damp at times with temps remaining in the mid 40s.

[Niko]

Some light snowshowers tomorrow may whiten up grassy surfaces in my area. Ofc, no accumulations, but Halloween goers will have to bundle up, that's for sure. Temps will be in the 40s all day w a wcf near or at freezing.

[Niko]

Today was quite cold... got stuck at about 40 with strong wind all day.

Same here. It was raw and cold all day w on and off showers and temps in the mid 40s.

[Niko]

https://youtu.be/IuNdXF0md4A

 

Some dramatic video of a funnel cloud that came ashore in Ludington. This one shows a lot of hail, another one from the north side had a bunch of snow falling. Twisters-n-snow awesome!

Pretty cool!

[jaster220]

Saw some flurries and graupel on my morning commute, but as this radar grab shows plainly, the bulk of the real wintery action is north of the 94 corridor. Got westerly winds converging to thank for that. Oh well, looks like a hefty streamer all the way across to my native Genesee Cnty. Perhaps it will sag south and clip Niko's place as well?