October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

Too much east wind out here today near west Gresham so I could only manage a wimpy 67 degrees. Amazing late October weather!

 

This gorgeous day was brought to you by a much dreaded and horrific 594DM ridge that was maligned by some on here as being very disappointing and disgusting.    

[Jesse]

This gorgeous day was brought to you by a much dreaded and horrific 594DM ridge that was maligned by some on here as being very disappointing and disgusting.

I don’t remember anyone saying that.

[Jesse]

Thanks. It's getting to be that time of year, so I'm sure I'll pop in at times. I haven't been here in so long I honestly wasn't even sure if the forum was still around.

Welcome back Rob.

[wx_statman]

21.0C over SLE this afternoon. Incredible for this time of year. 598 heights this morning over both MFR and RNO. 

 

I noticed Buckeye RAWS @ 2,264' in the S. Cascades hit 82 today without any downslope assist. 

 

http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=PKFO3

[TT-SEA]

I don’t remember anyone saying that.

 

Winky.   

 

I exaggerated for dramatic effect.   You certainly did not want this ridge though... and by extension the stunning weather it has delivered after almost a week of rain and wind.   Nice break to get out and enjoy the fall colors.  

[TT-SEA]

21.0C over SLE this afternoon. Incredible for this time of year. 598 heights this morning over both MFR and RNO. 

 

I noticed Buckeye RAWS @ 2,264' in the S. Cascades hit 82 today without any downslope assist. 

 

http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=PKFO3

 

Have to give credit to the GEM which all of last week showed a 600DM ridge and we all thought it was completely out to lunch.

 

An almost 600DM ridge in late October is actually downright gorgeous at the surface though.   It would have been pretty miserable 6 weeks ago.

[Jesse]

Winky.

 

I exaggerated for dramatic effect. You certainly did not want this ridge though... and by extension the stunning weather it has delivered after almost a week of rain and wind. Nice break to get out enjoy the fall colors.

There is no point to what you are doing right now. It really doesn’t matter, and just makes you look like a goon.

 

And the ridge was a given. I was hoping for a stronger clipper to follow, in which case we would have kept the sunshine but ended up with cooler temperatures and frosty mornings.

[Front Ranger]

21.0C over SLE this afternoon. Incredible for this time of year. 598 heights this morning over both MFR and RNO. 

 

I noticed Buckeye RAWS @ 2,264' in the S. Cascades hit 82 today without any downslope assist. 

 

http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=PKFO3

 

Kinda makes you wonder how some of the numbers with 1949, 1929, 1987, etc were achieved. I'm guessing more southerly flow?

[wx_statman]

Have to give credit to the GEM which all of last week showed a 600DM ridge and we all thought it was completely out to lunch.

 

An almost 600DM ridge in late October is actually downright gorgeous at the surface though.   It would have been pretty miserable 6 weeks ago.

 

Today was perfect. Couldn't ask for a nicer day anytime of the year. 

[snow_wizard]

Just a tad of similarity between this year and 1949 for the first 22 days of October over the NE Pacific and GOA.  Then of course 1949 had a big ridge the final 5 days of the month.  Very good match!

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Have to give credit to the GEM which all of last week showed a 600DM ridge and we all thought it was completely out to lunch.

 

An almost 600DM ridge in late October is actually downright gorgeous at the surface though.   It would have been pretty miserable 6 weeks ago.

 

I tried to give the GEM credit a couple days ago and was told not to. 

[wx_statman]

Kinda makes you wonder how some of the numbers with 1949, 1929, 1987, etc were achieved. I'm guessing more southerly flow?

 

I'm not the best person to ask that. I believe 1949 was entirely offshore flow driven, like 2010. Nov 1929 as well judging by the 88 in Brookings. 

[Jesse]

Fall colors really popping at the WSU Salmon Creek campus this afternoon.

 

 

 

 

 

[wx_statman]

Also 78 at TMK today. Their COOP has only seen one higher reading this late, the 80 on 11/1/1962. Seaside had a monthly record of 79 on that day as well. 

[snow_wizard]

There is no point to what you are doing right now. It really doesn’t matter, and just makes you look like a goon.

 

And the ridge was a given. I was hoping for a stronger clipper to follow, which in which case we would have kept the sunshine but ended up with cooler temperatures and frosty mornings.

 

I'm still thinking frost for Friday night when the gradients die.

[Jesse]

Also 78 at TMK today. Their COOP has only seen one higher reading this late, the 80 on 11/1/1962. Seaside had a monthly record of 79 on that day as well.

That year seems to keep coming up as well.

[Front Ranger]

I'm not the best person to ask that. I believe 1949 was entirely offshore flow driven, like 2010. Nov 1929 as well judging by the 88 in Brookings. 

 

I actually meant the event right around this time in October 1929 when SLE and Corvallis both hit 83.

[TT-SEA]

I'm still thinking frost for Friday night when the gradients die.

 

Air mass seems too warm.   ECMWF shows mid 40s for most of the area on Friday night and even some upper 50s to around 60 near the foothills for lows on Saturday morning.

 

Then the marine layer locks in on Saturday night and stays through Halloween.  

[wx_statman]

I actually meant the event right around this time in October 1929 when SLE and Corvallis both hit 83.

 

That's right, there was a biggie about 10 days prior. Looks like that one was offshore flow driven as well, judging by the 30.51" pressure in Baker City on the 22nd. I just checked the monthy climo report for Oct 1929 and that was listed as the highest pressure in the state that month. 

[wx_statman]

That year seems to keep coming up as well.

 

Yeah, we were just talking about the similarity of this pattern to 1962 a few days ago. 

[snow_wizard]

That year seems to keep coming up as well.

 

Kind of interesting looking at the years being talked about here...1929, 1949, 1962.  All were followed by very cold Januaries.

[snow_wizard]

Air mass seems too warm.   ECMWF shows mid 40s for most of the area on Friday night and even some upper 50s to around 60 near the foothills for lows on Saturday morning.

 

Then the marine layer locks in on Saturday night and stays through Halloween.  

 

We'll see.  It will be interesting to see how dry of air gets brought in after the clipper.

[Jesse]

Kind of interesting looking at the years being talked about here...1929, 1949, 1962. All were followed by very cold Januaries.

Definitely.

[wx_statman]

It's interesting that both 1929 and 1949 reeled off massive compressional heating events in late Oct/early Nov. The following January's were worthwhile. 

[wx_statman]

Kind of interesting looking at the years being talked about here...1929, 1949, 1962.  All were followed by very cold Januaries.

 

Was thinking the same thing at about the same time.

[Jesse]

It's interesting that both 1929 and 1949 reeled off massive compressional heating events in late Oct/early Nov. The following January's were worthwhile.

It would be interesting to look at a January composite for all the years where PDX had 585+ heights between 10/20 and 11/5.

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome back! 

Thanks!

 

Welcome back Rob.

Thank you, Jesse.

 

21.0C over SLE this afternoon. Incredible for this time of year. 598 heights this morning over both MFR and RNO. 

 

I noticed Buckeye RAWS @ 2,264' in the S. Cascades hit 82 today without any downslope assist. 

 

http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=PKFO3

That's incredible. Good thing we didn't have a ridge this robust in late July with thermal trough support over western Oregon.

[snow_wizard]

It's interesting that both 1929 and 1949 reeled off massive compressional heating events in late Oct/early Nov. The following January's were worthwhile. 

 

I would say both of those Januaries qualify as insane.  The cold was brutal with both.

[snow_wizard]

It would be interesting to look at a January composite for all the years where PDX has 585+ heights between 10/20 and 11/5.

 

I wish the CPC site where you make the composite maps had a feature to find analogs to a given pattern.

[Phil]

I wish the CPC site where you make the composite maps had a feature to find analogs to a given pattern.

Stormvista does.

[Front Ranger]

It looks like 1929 had the mean ridging position for 10/20 - 11/5 in a fairly similar spot to what we're seeing.

 

[wx_statman]

It's interesting how the mean ridge position seemed to drift west as we approached the 1949-50 cold season. There was a historic heat wave in July in the east (98 in Burlington VT), another historic heat wave centered on WY/MT around August 7th, then two huge ridges over the PNW (late Sep with 91 at PDX, followed by late Oct/early Nov), and then over AK/GOA in January resulting in we-all-know-what around here. 

[wx_statman]

I would say both of those Januaries qualify as insane.  The cold was brutal with both.

 

#1 and #2 coldest for some places here in the valley. 

[TT-SEA]

I feel good about this winter... no doubt.

 

But to assume things will progress the same as they did 80 years ago or 60 years ago might be a little foolhardy.   Or so I am told each spring with analogs. 

[snow_wizard]

Stormvista does.

 

Is that a pay site?  Do you mean you can enter a date and will spit out all of the years that had a similar pattern?

[Front Ranger]

It would be interesting to look at a January composite for all the years where PDX had 585+ heights between 10/20 and 11/5.

 

Several days ago I made a post about all -ENSO years that featured a similar ridge pattern to what we're seeing now, in late October - early November. The years were 1949, 1954, 1962, 1966, 1989, 1995, 1996, and 2013. Not sure what 1929 was ENSO-wise?

 

Here's the composite without 1929 for the following Januaries.

 

[luminen]

I feel good about this winter... no doubt.

 

But to assume things will progress the same as they did 80 years ago or 60 years ago might be a little foolhardy.   Or so I am told each spring with analogs. 

 

And I am quite sure you are looking forward to the inevitably wet Spring of 2018.

[Kayla]

Several days ago I made a post about all -ENSO years that featured a similar ridge pattern to what we're seeing now, in late October - early November. The years were 1949, 1954, 1962, 1966, 1989, 1995, 1996, and 2013. Not sure what 1929 was ENSO-wise?

 

Here's the composite without 1929 for the following Januaries.

 

cd75.166.85.240.296.21.27.45.prcp.png

 

Wow, that is an amazing set of years for out here as well.

[TT-SEA]

And I am quite sure you are looking forward to the inevitably wet Spring of 2018.

 

Planning ahead now!  

 

I know its very likely coming again.   They tend to come in bunches.  

[Front Ranger]

Wow, that is an amazing set of years for out here as well.

 

It's nice overall, but of course also includes years like 1966...which was pretty much a nation-wide torch in January. Can't throw away that analog, unfortunately.