October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Gradient Keeper]

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017102600/240/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF surface map shows a high of only 37 at SEA on day 10... and 44 at PDX on that day.

 

Precip is mostly gone by that time though.    It does show a tiny bit of snow in the lowlands close to the foothills before it clears out.

[snow_wizard]

00Z ECMWF surface map shows a high of only 37 at SEA on day 10... and 44 at PDX on that day.

 

Precip is mostly gone by that time though.    It does show a tiny bit of snow in the lowlands close to the foothills before it clears out.

 

Something like that is certainly possible in early November.  The fact the GFS and ECMWF both trended colder is interesting.  The GFS ensemble has sped up the return to colder 850s also.

 

Rather interestingly it is exceedingly rare for a cold snap to begin in early November in this area.  There have been many that began in late Oct and went into November, but cold actually beginning in the Nov 1 to Nov 5 time frame is almost unheard of.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 2 hours!

Who's staying up for it ?

 

Edit: Just kidding, but ahhh yes soon enough we'll be analyzing every model run scrutinizing every detail.

[Karl Bonner]

Today (yesterday?) in The Dalles it was 73, only one degree shy of the daily record high.  And it was WEST WIND that made the 73 possible, not east wind.

[Gradient Keeper]

10/26/17 2:42 AM 00z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs

 

Day 6-10, 8-14 (*1985 popped up 3 times!)

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=265099

[Jesse]

Today (yesterday?) in The Dalles it was 73, only one degree shy of the daily record high. And it was WEST WIND that made the 73 possible, not east wind.

Downsloping. That’s going to be a much more efficient way to heat you guys up at this point. You should know this stuff Bon Bon!

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

10/26/17 2:42 AM 00z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs

 

Day 6-10, 8-14 (*1985 popped up 3 times!)

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

 

November 1985 was a "wonderful" month. In fact, one of the best from my childhood. 2 weeks of (often) bitter cold, multiple snow events, clear cold sunny days with over 15" to 20" of snow on the ground w/ very little to no melting. It was a rare and special event... 

[Geos]

Sitting around 50 with some fog/haze this morning.

Have almost completed the process of setting up my weather station. I got a Bloomsky setup. Has a great camera on it and the instruments are power by solar. I'll post the link once it starts transmitting data on WU.

[Kayla]

Looking more and more like a maritime verses a continental airmass next weekend...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking more and more like a maritime verses a continental airmass next weekend...

 

Bring on the rain. 

[Kayla]

Bring on the rain. 

 

Continental airmass would likely bring you snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

A little teaser video I shot last year at the beginning of the 12" dumping we got in February.

 

https://vimeo.com/202707542

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Continental airmass would likely bring you snow.

 

I know, but I don't really expect snow in November. Earliest snowfall since moved here in 2011, was 11/14/15. Most significant snowfall was in November 2011, had about 6.5" the weekend before Thanksgiving. 

[Kayla]

I know, but I don't really expect snow in November. Earliest snowfall since moved here in 2011, was 11/14/15. Most significant snowfall was in November 2011, had about 6.5" the weekend before Thanksgiving. 

 

November 2011 isn't going back very far... Early November snowfall isn't all that unheard of at your elevation.

 

Although early November cold waves are I suppose.

[Kayla]

12z GEM is kind of a blend of the GFS and ECMWF FWIW.

[stuffradio]

This has to be good news, no? This is the first run this year I think I have seen the GFS showing snow within the lower mainland/fraser valley BC region within 200 hours.

 

[Kayla]

This has to be good news, no? This is the first run this year I think I have seen the GFS showing snow within the lower mainland/fraser valley BC region within 200 hours.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_34.png

 

Consensus here is that no one likes first half of November snow, so...no! 

[stuffradio]

Consensus here is that no one likes first half of November snow, so...no! 

12Z GEM showing the same type of idea. I wonder if this thing will actually verify... we'll have to see!

[Kayla]

12Z GEM showing the same type of idea. I wonder if this thing will actually verify... we'll have to see!

 

Yeah... it's definitely a nice blend of the GFS and Euro.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah... it's definitely a nice blend of the GFS and Euro.

Yea that blocking configuration would be ideal for a big snowstorm somewhere in the PNW. Not so sure it would work out being so early.

[Geos]

Socked in with low clouds over a big area this morning.

 

[Jesse]

As long as this torch ends soon I’m happy.

[stuffradio]

As long as this torch ends soon I’m happy.

Torchy McTorch face.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Consensus here is that no one likes first half of November snow, so...no! 

Well, I would rather it hold-off a bit later in the season for a number of reasons, but other than that, what I like about this year is the overall larger scale patterns which give us some good possibilities from late fall through winter. Could be a good year winter-white wise, no matter what does or does not happen in the next 200 hours. 

[BLI snowman]

Some pretty cold rain on the Euro!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro says snow at Tim, Timmy's, and Andrew's....

[ShawniganLake]

Euro says snow at Tim, Timmy's, and Andrew's....

NW Washington and BC too

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Omg so dam close to the WV. Let's keep doing this once every 2 weeks!

[Timmy]

Euro says snow at Tim, Timmy's, and Andrew's....

Woot

[Deweydog]

Another seventysaster at PDX???

[Jesse]

Another seventysaster at PDX???

Fairly solid chance every day between now and Saturday. This is a pretty crazy climo ridge!

[Deweydog]

Fairly solid chance every day between now and Saturday. This is a pretty crazy climo ridge!

Stop looking for trouble, Mr. Trouble McTroubleson. My butt already took a pounding last night.

[Gradient Keeper]

A little teaser video I shot last year at the beginning of the 12" dumping we got in February.

 

https://vimeo.com/202707542

Wow great job on this!

[Gradient Keeper]

Absolutely MASSIVE early Fall ridge!

 

[Timmy]

Absoutely beautiful fall day! Should get the mushrooms popping finally. I know Jesse will be excited about that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now getting out of the low clouds between Eugene and Corvallis. Should be pleasant for the Stanford blowout of the Beavers tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Sure wish the east wind would surface here like in Portland.   

 

Sunny morning became foggy late morning and its still foggy.    But its sunny just a couple miles to the east.

[ShawniganLake]

Sure wish the east wind would surface here like in Portland.

 

Sunny morning became foggy late morning and its still foggy. But its sunny just a couple miles to the east.

Clear blue skies and calm winds here all day. Right about 60F currently.