Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I've been watching the long range models pretty closely since late summer and the common theme has been a more northern focused cold anomaly and my leading analog (1996) for this winter also points to this. Disclaimer - This is NOT a forecast. Fair enough! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Warm this morning, already up to 58F.Not that warm here. But it did jump from 43 to 52F during the night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I've been watching the long range models pretty closely since late summer and the common theme has been a more northern focused cold anomaly and my leading analog (1996) for this winter also points to this. Disclaimer - This is NOT an official forecast. I love the disclaimer, when I read that it says “ I don’t want blamed when I’m wrong, but I want credit when I’m right” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I've been watching the long range models pretty closely since late summer and the common theme has been a more northern focused cold anomaly and my leading analog (1996) for this winter also points to this. Disclaimer - This is NOT an official forecast. Some blend of 2007, 1996, 1984, 1966, and 1962 seems like a decent analog group. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I love the disclaimer, when I read that it says “ I don’t want blamed when I’m wrong, but I want credit when I’m right” You just quoted the weather industry golden standard. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Some blend of 2007, 1996, 1984, 1966, and 1962 seems like a decent analog group. Agreed. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 12z GFS not looking as top-heavy with the block at hour 180 when compared to 06z/00z. Just looks wet now... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just looks wet now... Axl Rose will be pleased. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Looks pretty seasonal. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just looks wet now... Both the euro and GFS look similar in that range. Transitioning to a cool and potentially wet pattern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Since the GEM proved itself a little bit with the ridge earlier this week... here is what the 12Z GEM shows for later next week. Very different pattern... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Looks pretty seasonal.*Seezinable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Nice improvements on the 12Z ECMWF for Sunday. Previous runs had been consistently showing a solid marine layer all day... in fact even deepening it during the day as well. But that little system under the ridge appears to be weaker on the 12Z run and it shows sunny skies now except near the water in the morning. Be nice to have nice weather on both days this weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 That’s only true for 1966-67, and in that case I think OLM north just got lucky with a snowstorm. The other years from the list I think you are talking about didn’t feature a notable north/south gradient to speak of, sans perhaps 1996-97. I haven’t really heard anyone talking about this being a big N-S gradient winter until just now. Of course it’s late October so who is to say if this will even be a big winter for anyone. Well, 1966-67 wasn't a second year Niña. It followed the very strong El Niño of 1965-66. I'd re-frame it as Niña/-QBO winters having the tendency for stronger jets/tighter gradients, but even then the correlation only holds for moderate/strong Niñas. Weak Niñas seem to open the door to more intraseasonal variability/blocking and solar forcing as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 12z Euro is sort of a disappointing run all around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 12z Euro is a sort of disappointing run all around. Sure turns wet later next week! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Sure turns wet later next week! Guts the little system that gave us potential for a somewhat chilly Halloween, then turns rainy but not very cold. Boo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Glad of this. Don't want to start having PV drops too early. I want it in December/January where it's coldest. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Guts the little system that gave us potential for a somewhat chilly Halloween, then turns rainy but not very cold. Boo. Good news is the EPS looks drier and colder. Ridge doesn't get pinched off. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Good news is the EPS looks drier and colder. Ridge doesn't get pinched off.Yeah, I figured the Euro might be showing its general cutoff bias toward days 8-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Yeah, I figured the Euro might be showing its general cutoff bias toward days 8-10. Yeah, wouldn't be the first time. The EPS control run actually looks really good days 10-15. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 That's one heck of a -EPO/Alaskan ridge on the 12z EPS. The entire country west of the Appalachians is colder than average, verbatim. Coldest anomalies of the entire NH are over Montana and North Dakota. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 WPAC warm pool is getting destroyed. It's the primary heat source for the extratropical NH (especially during winter), so I'm anticipating some very cold air to develop in the high latitudes in about a month, should the low frequency degradation of the last few months continue. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Yeah, wouldn't be the first time. The EPS control run actually looks really good days 10-15. Screen Shot 2017-10-25 at 2.19.47 PM.pngScreen Shot 2017-10-25 at 2.14.40 PM.png That would be epic. Early November snowfall here we come! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Colder than normal waters from Ecuador straight across to Papua New Guinea now. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Here comes the MJO-driven WWB. This might be enough to force a downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave, in which case the Niña has probably peaked, structurally speaking (similar to last year's early peak). Still quite uncertain, though. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Here comes the MJO-driven WWB. This might be enough to force a downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave, in which case the Niña has probably peaked, similar to last year's early peak. Still quite uncertain, though. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif It was quite the Nina! Time for it go now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Pretty morning... Sure turned ugly today... drizzle storm 2017. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 It was quite the Nina! Time for it go now. Interesting how we went from La Niña conditions last autumn, to El Niño conditions during the Spring, to La Niña conditions again this autumn, to perhaps something else within 3-4 months. These higher frequency vascillations in the ENSO system just scream low frequency regime change. The last two periods with such behavior were the late 1970s/early 1980s (great Pacific climate shift) and the late 1950s/early 1960s, which flipped the AMO and brought on the blockiest stretch of winters since the LIA. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Up to 56 after a low of 41 this morning. Have had a few sprinkles today and now a little drizzle. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Clouds starting to creep in here. I doubt the precip makes it this far south. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 One thing working against an OKW response is the higher frequency nature of this MJO/CCKW/what have you. Might not be enough time for a big slosh as easterlies return in a few weeks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Sure turned ugly today... drizzle storm 2017. I think it's beautiful. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Sneak peak to this winter?Hopefully not. I would enjoy the first ever blizzard warning for the Willamette Valley. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 18z sure looks different from it's brethren.Yeah. AK Block gets pinched off. You can't even wishcast this run if you tried. Onto 00z GFS!Begins in 4 hours 9 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 We seem to be stuck in a rut right now where everything trends warmer as it gets closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 We seem to be stuck in a rut right now where everything trends warmer as it gets closer. Seems to go in cycles. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Seems to go in cycles.I’ve noticed the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Ensembles look gooder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Everyone in the PNW will get something this year. I just don't think it'll happen til mid-December Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.