November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

Still big differences between the Euro and GFS for the weekend, in particular with thermal profiles.  

[jaster220]

I am up in Bay City for my birthday. The temperature here this AM is 30° there are broken clouds but no frost. I said yesterday I would report on the leaves here as there are still a lot of leaves on the trees in the GR metro area. Well on the trip here it varies going from areas of a lot of leaves with good color to areas of no leaves and a more November like look. Here in Bay City being near the Saginaw Bay there are still a lot of leaves on the trees and some good color. But note the low could be down in the mid 20’s tonight (as will most of Michigan) and the low here on Friday morning could get get down to mid to upper teens so I would expect all of the leaves to be off the trees by the weekend.

As for the cold this week not much snow is expected could that be the trend this winter? The moisture and wind direction are not right for lake snows for much of lower Michigan, There could be some near the lake shore (Michigan) and to the east of here(the Bay City area) where lake snows can happen with a north wind.

 

 

Happy Birthday WMJim!  When I lived in Bridgeport and Frankenmuth my fam would often meet for occasions/holidays at Krzysiak's House in Bay City. Kinda miss that tbh.

[jaster220]

Liking this.

 

Yeah, gonna be a close call if there's enough of the cold air aloft or not, but I'd rather have a light snow at this point. Heavy snows too early act like a blanket and keep soil temps too warm. My city lot seems overly prone to that problem like no place I've owned before..so rooting for pond icing wx before any heavier stuff hits tbh

[VMB443]

Yeah, gonna be a close call if there's enough of the cold air aloft or not, but I'd rather have a light snow at this point. Heavy snows too early act like a blanket and keep soil temps too warm. My city lot seems overly prone to that problem like no place I've owned before..so rooting for pond icing wx before any heavier stuff hits tbh

Yeah, I'm not quite sure I'm ready to shovel yet - but I like the cold and would love to see some snow flying.

[St Paul Storm]

Yeah, gonna be a close call if there's enough of the cold air aloft or not, but I'd rather have a light snow at this point. Heavy snows too early act like a blanket and keep soil temps too warm. My city lot seems overly prone to that problem like no place I've owned before..so rooting for pond icing wx before any heavier stuff hits tbh

Couldn’t agree more on holding off on the heavy snow until Dec.

[Madtown]

So...its weather related...my wife and Jim Cantore! Hope to meet him soon. She asked him for me his thoughts on winter... plenty of snow for the midwest was his response.

[Money]

Anyone have euro snowmaps?

[Madtown]

So...its weather related...my wife and Jim Cantore! Hope to meet him soon. She asked him for me his thoughts on winter... plenty of snow for the midwest was his response.

[Niko]

Brutal cold coming for November standards. Highs on Friday remaining in the 20s and lows in the mid teens.

[jaster220]

Storm warnings hoisted for the UP already...so long LE headlines, been nice knowin ya

[jaster220]

So...its weather related...my wife and Jim Cantore! Hope to meet him soon. She asked him for his thoughts on winter... plenty of snow for the midwest was his response.

 

Coolness, how'd this happen? 

[OKwx2k4]

So...its weather related...my wife and Jim Cantore! Hope to meet him soon. She asked him for me his thoughts on winter... plenty of snow for the midwest was his response.

That's awesome.

[Niko]

Snowshowers possible on Thursday with the Arctic Express coming and also again on the weekend w that small weak disturbance passing on by.

[St Paul Storm]

Anyone have euro snowmaps?

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa_3hr.php

 

Free, courtesy of Ryan Maue and his new venture.

[Madtown]

She's the Sr.merchant for lands end outerwear....announced a new partnership today. Pretty cool stuff since I'm a weather nut!

[Niko]

The NWS forecast for International Falls now shows a potential 1st 0F low of the season for Thursday Night/Friday Morning. While Wunderground shows a 2F low instead.

 

 

That looks more like the hard of Winter. Dang!

[Niko]

Thanksgiving could be slipping and sliding!!!

Let the fun begin!

[james1976]

So...its weather related...my wife and Jim Cantore! Hope to meet him soon. She asked him for me his thoughts on winter... plenty of snow for the midwest was his response.

Way too cool!

[Niko]

Currently @ 36F. Going in the 20s tanite under clear skies.

[Niko]

The tropics are still going believe or not........TS "Rina" is hanging out in the open AO.

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Active.aspx?storm=1&type=track

[Niko]

Clearly, you can see the Arctic Front to the north of MN, WI and UP of MI positioned in Canada just ready to pour down into the US.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/namer.jpg

[jaster220]

Clearly, you can see the Arctic Front to the north of MN, WI and UP of MI positioned in Canada just ready to pour down into the US.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/namer.jpg

And GRR mentioning some places in their region hitting single digits Friday morning! Not sure I'm ready for it to plunge that fast n hard!??

[Niko]

And GRR mentioning some places in their region hitting single digits Friday morning! Not sure I'm ready for it to plunge that fast n hard!??

That is too extreme. Not ready for that either.

 

 

Btw: I dont think last year November was this cold.

[jaster220]

That's what I mean though. Until the QBO has propagated all the way down (coming soon, stay tuned), you won't see things differentiate much from what we have seen the past 2 years. Right now QBO has reversed at 10mb and 30mb but wont reach 50mb til end of this month into December. After that, boom goes the pattern.

Late Nov, (after the 17th) is when the dominoes have been set to start falling for a long time. At least since the start of September.

I'm impressed by your recognition of players at such a great distance. I've learned quite a bit in the last decade of weather forum participation, but nothing to that degree. Glad you chose to be a part of this forum even tho some distance from the region.

[jaster220]

That is too extreme. Not ready for that either.

 

 

Btw: I dont think last year November was this cold.

Short memory, eh? Nov 2016 was a bonafide dumpster FIRE!! One of the hottest November's in history iirc

[jaster220]

Of many...since October 22nd's very strong mid Autumn CF swung through the central CONUS, the pattern flipped in the all important period the Gary highlights is the "heart" of the LRC.  The cool is to rule in a pattern that seemingly trends in our favor (for those who like cold in the winter).  There have been many times already this season for stronger HP's, marry that with a snow cover, clear skies and calm wind in the winter and I think there will be a lot of cold cold periods.

From a post I made in the SMI forum today wrt a 2013-14 repeat or hybrid:

 

Let's break this down a bit..

 

2013-14 stood out for 1) consistent snow fall 2) consistent freezing or below temps, leading to the 3) historic number of days with deep snow OTG. Which, for DTW at least was the perfect combo to topple 1880-81's long standing record season (not to mention the snow depth/cover portion of the stats).

 

I think that season was the perfect combo for SEMI with just the right amount of cold, and just the right gradient set-up for that little corner to score what it did. But, tbh, back my way in Marshall, it just barely beat out 08-09 for snow totals (and I mean barely, lol). So, in this era of high moisture atmosphere it didn't stand way above other seasons, not even a very recent one (or heck several for that matter). With what's just transpired since the flip around 10/6 over SWMI, I think it's safe to say we're still in the era of anomalously high qpf potential. So it shouldn't be impossible for that component to remain in play this winter imho.

 

As for storms, 13-14 featured a bunch of plow-able events/systems, at least (10) for mby per my data set. But, due to the dominant NW flow regime, only the single big-dog in Jan, which as noted by others here prior, wasn't the classic set-up with the PV doing a lot of work and the SLP not really that strong. The storm itself was a 10-12" storm, that added about 5" on the front side with the frontal over-running, and another 1" of LES on the tail end. So, what if we have a more SW flow set-up with storms being allowed to mature/deepen/Neg-tilt-style as they hit SMI? This is ofc is a bit of conjecture, but let's entertain the possibility on behalf of WxFreeck since he had to move and was always bemoaning that we never got a good flow set-up in winter any more. Maybe we finally do this winter. Tho strong storms get a mixed review for us peeps since we range from MKG to DTW and they have usually treated extreme SEMI less friendly, so that potential could be seen as a negative for MSF, AHM, and MTJ, but a big plus for those further west. Need I say, the bar could be raised back toward Harry, myself, Adam and others.

 

As for the cold, we've had severe winters with longer lasting deep cold, and I could envision this winter delivering more frequent bouts of super-cold temps with more periods of -AO/-NAO which were lacking 4 yrs ago. Do I personally need that? Heck no! I'd be fine with a repeat of 13-14 in that dept, lol But, with some of the signs pointing to temp extremes they remain a real possibility if not likelihood.

 

So, I could indeed see the hybrid season Adam mentions, but it could be a hybrid between 13-14 and several other seasons that may go way back in time that actually take 13-14 to another level. Difficult to imagine ofc, and total conjecture at this point, but there's a lot going for it tbh. You could argue for a hybrid that combined the best segments of several historic winters rolled up into one big happy snowball of fun!!

[jaster220]

Why not a little headlines from above the Big Mack, while we Trolls down below await our turn..

 

Yeah, I'd take up to 20" lol for a first real LES event

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Marquette MI

408 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

 

MIZ006-007-085-080515-

/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.W.0005.171109T0300Z-171110T1200Z/

Alger-Luce-Northern Schoolcraft-

Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry,

and Seney

408 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM

EST FRIDAY...

 

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel

conditions, including during the morning and evening commutes on

Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches, with

localized amounts up to 19 inches, except 6 to 9 inches near

Newberry, and 5 to 7 inches near Trenary, are expected.

 

* WHERE...Alger, Luce and Northern Schoolcraft Counties.

 

* WHEN...From 10 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Friday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will

cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means

significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will

make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,

keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case

of an emergency.

[Minny_Weather]

This year, I have decided to start doing what I call the water glass test. Basically, I filled a small cup with water, put it out on my balcony, and I am going to record what day it first completely freezes. Figured it'd be a cool record to keep for myself. It'll need to be consistently below freezing (aka more than just one night). I'll keep you all posted.

[jaster220]

Including the weekend clipper, GFS paints MI with it's first state-wide snows:

 

 

[jaster220]

That was fast, 32 already! Good shot at coldest night since last winter..

[Niko]

Short memory, eh? Nov 2016 was a bonafide dumpster!! One of the hottest November's in history iirc

Now it rings a bell.......

[Niko]

Why not a little headlines from above the Big Mack, while we Trolls down below await our turn..

 

Yeah, I'd take up to 20" lol for a first real LES event

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Marquette MI

408 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

 

MIZ006-007-085-080515-

/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.W.0005.171109T0300Z-171110T1200Z/

Alger-Luce-Northern Schoolcraft-

Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry,

and Seney

408 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM

EST FRIDAY...

 

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel

conditions, including during the morning and evening commutes on

Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches, with

localized amounts up to 19 inches, except 6 to 9 inches near

Newberry, and 5 to 7 inches near Trenary, are expected.

 

* WHERE...Alger, Luce and Northern Schoolcraft Counties.

 

* WHEN...From 10 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Friday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will

cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means

significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will

make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,

keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case

of an emergency.

Sweet!

[Niko]

Including the weekend clipper, GFS paints MI with it's first state-wide snows:

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_22.thumb.png.c717a1cf284e046ae55ec0b78182dfc6.png

Shows 1-3" for my area....although, who knows, could be more or less. Still couple days more for models to get this one right.

[Niko]

Currently @ 33F.

[Niko]

Hard freeze out there as if it snowed. Currently at 23F. Arctic air on its way for tomorrow with possible snowsqualls adding up to 0.5 inch of white powda and strong winds. Lows could get into the lower teens (10-15) and highs remaining in the 20s. BRRRRRRR.

[Tom]

Waking up to a hard freeze this morning, 27F IMBY with heavy Frost on the grass, cars and roof tops.  Finally!  Some of the colder spots have dipped down into the low 20's.  Imagine if there was a snow cover??  These cold air masses have over performed since late October.

 

Local grid forecast is showing a high temp on Friday only reaching 33F with a morning low of 18F!  Ouch!

 

Edit: Friday's high temp is equivalent to an average Dec 22nd temp!

[james1976]

Upper teens over here. Pretty crazy for early Nov and no snowcover.

[VMB443]

Low 20s here - amazing to see the leaves falling off the trees - just constant dropping after the real cold - I suspect a good couple of gusts of wind would finish the job quickly.

[jaster220]

Marshall was super frosty this morning, and actually all the way to the lakeshore was in the 20's as of 7:30. I see KRMY back home dipped to 22º after I left - saw manhole covers steaming so "there's your sign" as they say. And this is just a prelude to the next couple/few days. Need to get my remote start working again asap, lol

 

As for my former back yard, this is a classic example of why leaf season there was such a funky gig. I mean, normally along the coast, the leafs would peak the last week of Oct, but all it took was one strong CF (like this week's) and within a wk or 10 days you were getting inches of snow, and in many yrs, the snow never left my front lawn til mid-April. I lived on a lot where the forest was literally just cut down enough to squeeze my little starter home into. Needless to say, I had a ton of leaves! And then often a ton of snow right after.

 

Per APX, it looks like a 3-6" kick-off to the season there just SE of Traverse..

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Madtown]

Low of 12 predicted here for Thurs night! That's incredible stuff!