November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TigerWoodsLibido]

North winds have made it to Kelso!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Only a 100 miles to Monmouth...

We'll get a slight northwesterly component to the wind later tonight. Should drop temps to about 40 or so.

[wx_statman]

They're in a good spot for northerly gradients. I remember driving north to Seattle early on 11-28-06 and hit strong northerlies around Kalama that persisted to just south of Castle Rock. Kind of weird to be driving with a decent headwind going north on I-5 during the cold season. We just don't get them down here all that often.

 

No, we really don't. We need legitimate CAA from Fraser outflow (I'm thinking 12-28-1990) to develop strong northerlies here during the winter. At least outside of any mircoscale stuff, passing showers, etc. 

[Deweydog]

No, we really don't. We need legitimate CAA from Fraser outflow (I'm thinking 12-28-1990) to develop strong northerlies here during the winter. At least outside of any mircoscale stuff, passing showers, etc.

November 2003 and 2010 both had pretty decent bursts. The frontal passage leading to the 11-19-03 event was a pretty interesting one. I loved that whole stretch from mid October to mid November 2003. A lot of dynamic stuff packed in there.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, just drove back from Cle Elum around noon today. Plenty of snow up at the summit, but a very sharp line of absolutely no snow at all literally just a couple hundred feet in elevation below. Then it changed back to rain/snow mix as soon as you hit Bellevue, and by the time I got home to Capitol Hill it was all snow and accumulating. Pretty strange.

 

The Fraser River air has a very easy path down Puget Sound.  This is one of the more extreme cases I've seen of that.

[snow_wizard]

Seattle's high was 43 degrees at 4AM, coldest maximum ever recorded for this date.

 

Also finished off with a trace of snow. Not bad!

 

My high was only 40 here today and yet SEA certainly had a longer period of snowfall.

[Jesse]

Looks like a 34/31 spread at BLI so far today. Pretty crazy.

[HighlandExperience]

My high was only 40 here today and yet SEA certainly had a longer period of snowfall.

You think Saturday night will be better?

[Jesse]

They're in a good spot for northerly gradients. I remember driving north to Seattle early on 11-28-06 and hit strong northerlies around Kalama that persisted to just south of Castle Rock. Kind of weird to be driving with a decent headwind going north on I-5 during the cold season. We just don't get them down here all that often.

The topography of the Cowlitz valley is favorable for funneling northerly winds through there. I have observed similar phenomena passing through.

[Geos]

Still some snow on the hill here. Best estimate is that another 0.4" fell this afternoon. 

 

Sun just peaked out before it went down. Temp sliding under 35.

[Geos]

Statement from SEW.

 

WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-041200-
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Southwest Interior-
Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Admiralty Inlet Area-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
Olympics-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-
Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-North Coast-Central Coast-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-
Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
1230 PM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...Another chilly weather system arrives Saturday night...

The next weather system will reach Western Washington Saturday
night. A low pressure system will drop down out of the northwest
and move over Southwest Washington. The snow level could be low
enough for some areas in the lowlands to see snow.

Snow will fall in the Capitol Forest near Olympia. The hills
around Shelton and up along Hood Canal could see heavy snowfall.
The hills around the Seattle-Tacoma metro area might see a couple
inches of wet snow. Low elevations near the water, like downtown
Seattle, should see little or no accumulation.

The coldest air will remain up over Whatcom county--but northern
areas will probably see the least amount of precipitation. The
track of the weather system could change, so stay tuned to
current forecasts.

[wx_statman]

November 2003 and 2010 both had pretty decent bursts. The frontal passage leading to the 11-19-03 event was a pretty interesting one. I loved that whole stretch from mid October to mid November 2003. A lot of dynamic stuff packed in there.

I would gladly take a repeat of September 2003 to January 2004. Great stretch.

[snow_wizard]

You think Saturday night will be better?

 

The numbers look very promising for that event.  The track of the low is excellent for our area.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hope bothell can get more snow to stick this time around

[Jesse]

Light northerly drift has arrived in Scappoose.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KSPB&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[HighlandExperience]

Hope bothell can get more snow to stick this time around

Yea I’m hoping Saturday night can bring more accumulation. I suppose today’s taste of winter made me greedy for more!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like a 34/31 spread at BLI so far today. Pretty crazy.

 

A 38/32F spread here today, with sun and dry air all day. Most of the snow that wasn't in the sun is still around and it's already back down to 32F. I foresee a hard frost tonight, which feels bizarre with green leaves remaining on many trees.

[Deweydog]

Light northerly drift has arrived in Scappoose.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KSPB&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

Scattered reports of darkness coming in from that area.

[Timmy]

Light northerly drift has arrived in Scappoose.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KSPB&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

woot

[Deweydog]

woot

It should be noted that calm winds always default as coming from the north.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[HighlandExperience]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The Saturday night even is looking a bit iffy. Multiple models have been hinting at temperatures being just a bit too warm for snowfall at the lower levels. The 3K NAM had a good handle on this past event once things got close to the 24 hour window. Tonight's run shows rain falling even in the path of the outflow. Seems crazy with it currently sitting at 32F with a 25F dewpoint but I have seen dewpoints rise rapidly before precipitation even arrives in situations like this. 

 

 

The upper levels may be a bit on the warm side for snow:

 

[TT-SEA]

00z NAM shows it being too warm to snow tomorrow night with some places picking up a little on Sunday morning.

 

Although, it also showed 1-4 inches this morning over greater Puget Sound so take it with a grain of salt.

 

 

So... it will be overly-optimistic with snow again?

[HighlandExperience]

So... it will be overly-optimistic with snow again?

I was under the impression that the NAM is always overly generous. The fact that it shows nothing doesn’t bode well for us.

[seattleweatherguy]

Let's go with either model consensus or which model was more accurate

[jcmcgaffey]

Interesting week of weather started this week almost 70degrees to snowing later in the week. Which model has been most accurate with the cold and snow so far?

[ShawniganLake]

36/29 so far here today. The snow cover looked awesome tonight under the full moon

[TT-SEA]

The track of the low tomorrow night is just insanely good for the Seattle area... and its comes through at night too.

 

[Geos]

33/28 here. Hoping the NAM is being slightly too warm for tomorrow night. Would love to see back to back snow events.

[Brennan]

Would be cool to see Seattle hit the sweet spot and start the winter with a half a foot of snow before the end of the first week of November.

 

Also wouldn't mind a slight norther trend

[HighlandExperience]

The track of the low tomorrow night is just insanely good for the Seattle area... and its comes through at night too.

 

Hope this is a repeating pattern.

[TT-SEA]

Hope this is a repeating pattern.

 

No doubt... this would be amazing in the middle of winter with arctic air available to the north.  

[seattleweatherguy]

Nws still going with 1 to 3 inches for my area tmr night

[TigerWoodsLibido]

41 here.  Light NW wind.  Couple degrees below normal.  Looks like tomorrow/Sunday will be more chilly onshore flow in the warm sector.

[snow_wizard]

The Saturday night even is looking a bit iffy. Multiple models have been hinting at temperatures being just a bit too warm for snowfall at the lower levels. The 3K NAM had a good handle on this past event once things got close to the 24 hour window. Tonight's run shows rain falling even in the path of the outflow. Seems crazy with it currently sitting at 32F with a 25F dewpoint but I have seen dewpoints rise rapidly before precipitation even arrives in situations like this. 

 

 

The upper levels may be a bit on the warm side for snow:

 

 

The NAM has the low track completely different from the GFS and the ECMWF.

[snow_wizard]

Nws still going with 1 to 3 inches for my area tmr night

 

The WRF certainly agrees.  As Tim said the track of the low is utter perfection.  No way it doesn't snow if that track verifies.  Another thing to remember about that track is we end up on the NW quadrant of the low, which almost always produces surprises the models don't pick up on.

[snow_wizard]

Hope this is a repeating pattern.

 

Remember how the pattern repeated last winter in Portland's favor?  Things have a tendency to work out that way during a given season.

[snow_wizard]

I got back on Weatherbell earlier today.  Just too much going on to not have those maps!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Remember how the pattern repeated last winter in Portland's favor?  Things have a tendency to work out that way during a given season.

 

PDX only had 1 big event.  All the other events brought minimal snowfall.  We totaled about 7 inches for the entire winter down in the central valley.  Was mostly just consistent cold with the occasional inch or so.  Going to be really bummed if we are in the warm sector of these every time. At least you guys got the cold temps last winter.  We are stuck in the 40s.

[ShawniganLake]

PDX only had 1 big event. All the other events brought minimal snowfall. We totaled about 7 inches for the entire winter down in the central valley. Was mostly just consistent cold with the occasional inch or so. Going to be really bummed if we are in the warm sector of these every time. At least you guys got the cold temps last winter. We are stuck in the 40s.

I think you’re screwed. Feels like this pattern is locked in now. Every system will come ashore to your north this winter