PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Chris]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking if the cold setup is short lived the chances are high we will get hit again later in Feb.  SSW will probably reap benefits later on.

This ECMWF isn't too bad though.  Stays pretty chilly with an inversionary type pattern after the big cold shot.  A little bit of snow in there after the cold is in place as well.

There hasn't been a SSW this winter and there may not be one.

[thickhog]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

WB map of 12Z GEM snow with arctic front.

 

PDX metro might hit the jackpot and get 0.5”!

[Prairiedog]

11 hours ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

 

I  find it very interesting that Mark would even put that bottom thought out there.  He's really good not going too far out on a limb esp one that most of the time will get sawed off.  Just the fact that he's mentioned this "small possibility" twice, two days in a row now means he really has his eye on it.  For him to make it worth mentioning when the majority of the time "pipe busting cold" as he called it doesn't come to fruition, I find it really interesting.  Can't wait to see if he sticks with it as a possibility.  He just doesn't do that.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As W7ENK once posted on the old Fox 12 blog, getting an arctic front without snow is a little like taking a bottle of Dom Perignon and emptying it into the toilet.

I disagree. In fact I’d say deep cold is more elusive than snow in the PNW. At the end of the day I can drive an hour and a half east and be in more snow than most places can dream of.

PDX is also in its longest streak on record without a sub-20 low, so hopefully it finally ends.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

33 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM has a bit of snow for PDX

 

12z UKMET just came in and snowfall with the Arctic front is more widespread. Very cold temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z UKMET just came in and snowfall with the Arctic front is more widespread. Very cold temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings.

 

Wonderful news having the UKMET on board. 

[RentonHill]

I think we’ll have more chances in February 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Yesterday versus the 12z. Significant cutbacks 

[Deweydog]

34 minutes ago, Chris said:

There hasn't been a SSW this winter and there may not be one.

Yeah, it’s just been a rough few weeks for the ol’ spinner and getting rougher. Bruised and battered but still alive.

Edited January 25 by Deweydog

[WeatherGeek2022]

It's all downhill from here onward

[fubario]

Booooooooooo!!!!!!!

[WeatherGeek2022]

Figured a one sided winter was inevitable 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

PDX is also in its longest streak on record without a sub-20 low, so hopefully it finally ends.

Really? I thought it got down to 19 at PDX last December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weeping Wednesday 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Really? I thought it got down to 19 at PDX last December.

Don’t believe it was official.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I disagree. In fact I’d say deep cold is more elusive than snow in the PNW. At the end of the day I can drive an hour and a half east and be in more snow than most places can dream of.

This one doesn’t even look like it’s going to be all that cold IMBY and it’s going to be a quick hitter so there won’t even be skatable frozen ponds as a consolation prize. Looks like the sort of outflow event I can count on getting every old winter. Color me underwhelmed.

[SouthHillFrosty]

If Mossman can’t have snow, nobody can

[SnowWillarrive]

49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This will be nothing like December up here. Between the lack of moisture and temps in the low to mid 30’s for highs and lows in the lower 20’s it will be at least 10-15 degrees warmer than last month’s festivities here. 
 

These cold shots are impotent. No juice. 
 

BTW it is snowing in Arkansas today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Well, that sucks. Enjoy your dusting, Portland!

And now for this public service message from Mr. GFS:

[Phishy Wx]

low serotonin Wednesday it looks like

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Really? I thought it got down to 19 at PDX last December.

20 degree minima during that eventa.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Not going to completely give up hope until tomorrow evening at the earliest, but let’s be honest: if you want a snowstorm, current model trends are not your friend, particularly if you live in the northern part of the area.

If the story is basically the same by tomorrow evening, I’ll be willing to call it for a dry blast. But not quite yet. Seen enough rug pulls that I wouldn’t rule out a rug being unrolled, a rug that’s thick and white.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not going to completely give up hope until tomorrow evening at the earliest, but let’s be honest: if you want a snowstorm, current model trends are not your friend, particularly if you live in the northern part of the area.

If the story is basically the same by tomorrow evening, I’ll be willing to call it for a dry blast. But not quite yet. Seen enough rug pulls that I wouldn’t rule out a rug being unrolled, a rug that’s thick and white.

You guys are completely screwed up there.

[Slushy Inch]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

06z EPS was the coldest yet, hope the 12z will continue that

I slight increase in snow too.

[Slushy Inch]

What is that one member on?

[BLI snowman]

30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Really? I thought it got down to 19 at PDX last December.

No, but every other Portland station did. Downtown hit 16 and the NWS Office on 122nd hit 17. PDX was a warm outlier as it often is.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What is that one member on?

It’s called the Jim member ensemble

[MossMan]

This one is…

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No, but every other Portland station did. Downtown hit 16 and the NWS Office on 122nd hit 17. PDX was a warm outlier as it often is.

Wow, I didn't realize downtown's numbers were so impressive. 24/17 and 28/16

[Slushy Inch]

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This one doesn’t even look like it’s going to be all that cold IMBY and it’s going to be a quick hitter so there won’t even be skatable frozen ponds as a consolation prize. Looks like the sort of outflow event I can count on getting every old winter. Color me underwhelmed.

Yea these gradients aren’t great for delivering low level cold through the Fraser Canyon.  Some sunny frosty days will be nice after the mild showery pattern of the past month though. 

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What is that one member on?

What's the chart like for HIO/PDX?

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What's the chart like for HIO/PDX?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

What do temperatures look like? Most of that is modelled to happen later next week when they are moderating. I suspect at least some of it is phantom snow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yea these gradients aren’t great for delivering low level cold through the Fraser Canyon.  Some sunny frosty days will be nice after the mild showery pattern of the past month though. 

There should at least be that. I have only had one freeze IMBY this month.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What do temperatures look like? Most of that is modelled to happen later next week when they are moderating. I suspect at least some of it is phantom snow.

Or probably just a few members with massive overrunning events skewing the mean up

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What do temperatures look like? Most of that is modelled to happen later next week when they are moderating. I suspect at least some of it is phantom snow.

Mostly falls Thursday-Monday. Temps look like mostly mid upper thirties. Maybe some big snows are driving up mean.

[OysterPrintout]

Can the euro keep hope alive for pdx? Or will Oyster be able to read comments saying "glad to see pdx score" from nothern posters and be able to see bare grass outside and a thin dusting on cars? Those stories and Andy Rooney starting now!

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, I didn't realize downtown's numbers were so impressive. 24/17 and 28/16

They often seem to be colder at the KGW station than PDX with strong CAA.

They pulled off a 20/15 in January 2004 while PDX was 24/18, and of course in February 1989 they pulled off a 12/8 while PDX was 15/9.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What do temperatures look like? Most of that is modelled to happen later next week when they are moderating. I suspect at least some of it is phantom snow.

These are totals right before it warms up.

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Actually trending snowier for PDX. LFG

[Slushy Inch]

The next time frame to watch. Negative temp anomalies only briefly drop below -4, so at least we stay below average.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

They often seem to be colder at the KGW station than PDX with strong CAA.

They pulled off a 20/15 in January 2004 while PDX was 24/18, and of course in February 1989 they pulled off a 12/8 while PDX was 15/9.

They also had a 22/17 day in 2014

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

These are totals right before it warms up.

2-3" going into this would be wonderful and with my low standards here would turn this winter from a C student into a B student.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Mostly falls Thursday-Monday. Temps look like mostly mid upper thirties. Maybe some big snows are driving up mean.

Why am I not surprised?

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Mostly falls Thursday-Monday. Temps look like mostly mid upper thirties. Maybe some big snows are driving up mean.

Handle checks out

[rsktkr]

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per 12Z ECMWF with Saturday front... step back for places south of Seattle compared to 00Z run.