PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[RentonHill]

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Jeez. How much snow did you end up with that month?

About 36” when all was said and done. And that at 280’ ASL. There was even more where I live now at 580’. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon off to a good start.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The system over the weekend has similarities to 12/14/08. 

Think I ended up with about 3” that day though it’s fuzzy. I only have pics well into the event where I was already buried. I do have this though! 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
359 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2008
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-
TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
359 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST
TODAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY.

THE COMBINATION OF SUB-FREEZING AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FROM THE NORTH AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

[Gradient Keeper]

You guys beat me to it. 00z ICON bit further southwest with the arctic trough might be colder and snowier.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Road trip to Maine! 

Funny I was just looking at the Maine coast on google earth.  

I would love living there. Dämn.

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

This could be a tough one north of Longview. 

After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine  

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i think he was referencing a single day in that stretch lol

Well I would take 3” going onto this…Like what I got on that date! Though I am seeing a lot of Euro maps as showing zilch up here. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS HR 6!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine  

You will at least get Kold. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine  

Speak for yourself buddy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon is legit. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I asked my Cat if she wanted to go ahead and take over running the 00z GFS tonight, but she just looked at me and licked her butt.

I guess you're stuck with me tonight.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Speak for yourself buddy

November 29th-December 4th was pretty solid here with snow every day for 6 days straight. Then a significant arctic blast with close to 1” of snow 12/20-12/23. We’ve had 6” of snow already this season so if we get nothing I’m happy with how it played out. We still could get surprised by this pattern though and get some snow but I don’t think so. 

[Doinko]

58 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

One step at a time. The initial block seems like it will probably float poleward. Quite a bit of support for it on the models and it’s been a pretty consistent theme here for several years now.

The Sunday pattern has some potential to be similar at least, depending on how far west the vort max decides to set up shop. Given the longwave favorability consistently shown right now, it’s hard to imagine that thing won’t have an opportunity to develop pretty rapidly. Either way, most models currently show a quick ramp up of offshore flow while there is still some decent lift around for favored areas.

I checked the NWS PNS from that, looks like we had around 3.5"? That would be very nice. Was that the event Clark County missed out on?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend) Cut-off/Kona low several notches to the west

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend) Hmmm....

[Gradient Keeper]

IR/WV Imagery, 00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Somehow I missed this massive 943mb(27.85 in) low near Kamchatka. Impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uh oh…

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend) base of the block several notches south with more width overall. Kona low further west. Aleutian low several notches stronger.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 (4-run trend) Where exactly is the block going? Weird seeing it so much further south. Aleutian ridge healthy and seeming to merge with the block.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend) Block is enormous this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3.5 (4-run trend) Where exactly is the block going? Weird seeing it so much further south. Aleutian ridge healthy and seeming to merge with the block.

I can tell you what the result short term is going to be…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Colder shot, less snow. Let’s see the implications later on. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 (4-run trend) Not sure what to make with the southern shift of the block.

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Absolutely no doubt in terms of snow.   

But the Twin Cities is better for cold.   The average today (near the depth of winter cold) in Buffalo is 31/18 while its 23/8 in Minneapolis.  

I was talking to my sales guy in Minneapolis today during a meeting, and he told us how the rest of the season goes there....They are of course cold now, then in February they will have 1-2 weeks where it won't get much above zero, then in March they get absolutely buried in snow.  If you like snow and cold, sounds like the place to be!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4.5 (4-run trend) Not sure what to make with the southern shift of the block.

Less likely to be undercut? 

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I checked the NWS PNS from that, looks like we had around 3.5"? That would be very nice. Was that the event Clark County missed out on?

Yeah, we got downsloped pretty hard.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Way less snow 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Way less snow 

There goes 2008. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gem is going to be cold. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend) Outstanding run to run consistency. Lol

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM HR 102

[SpaceRace22]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4.5 (4-run trend) Not sure what to make with the southern shift of the block.

Pure uninformed speculation here, but it feels like the block looks a little more stable in this position. I think I like that change.

[Requiem]

Definitely not throwing this run out or anything because I suppose it could happen, but that run to run fluctuation is pretty odd

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Op Day 3+ is a blindfolded lost puppy.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 5 850s

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM Day 5 850s

Gets even colder after. Wow this run is cold

[SouthHillFrosty]

TOUCHDOWN 

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Day 7

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely not throwing this run out or anything because I suppose it could happen, but that run to run fluctuation is pretty odd

We can expect anywhere from 0-25 inches of snow. 

[OysterPrintout]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely not throwing this run out or anything because I suppose it could happen, but that run to run fluctuation is pretty odd

For the GFS flailing wildly in the 4-7 day period is the new normal.

[snow_wizard]

Lovely overrunning event on this run after the cold is already in place.  Tasty!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM HR 126 850s -18c PDX

[SouthHillFrosty]

Warms up doe

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. GEM is a legit blast. 

[Gradient Keeper]

No model agreement after Day 3 with the 00z GFS, GEM. Volatility is increasing with this pattern.