SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 If I could I would quit looking at the models for a week or so... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Wrong Timmy, how’s your drought? Sorry, you Tims are all pretty similar. The upcoming death ridge is concerning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Day 6http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Toss this Euro run. Waaay too much SW dig in the rear quadrant there. It looks basically the same as the GFS at day 6. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Kamchatka Bomb? or does it track into the Aleutians... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Day 7http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 DJ frantically trying to create suspense...But there is none... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 DJ frantically trying to create suspense...But there is none...Doing the absolute best I can without resorting to silly wishcasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 If I could I would quit looking at the models for a week or so...You don't quit the models, the models quit you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastvanisle Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Ok, ok...very funny. Now, where are the REAL models indicating that winter is upon us? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Doing the absolute best I can without resorting to silly wishcasting.We appreciate the effort. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Day 8 NOPEhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 We appreciate the effort.There's a chance my nightly play-by-play is jinxing things. I won't be here or awake for 6z, so maybe things take a sudden turn for the better by 2:30 AM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Day 9 and very surprised to see this run is mirroring the GFS Op tonight. Only the CMC doesn't show this system moving in from the southwest cutting into the block. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 What are the “control” models.I believe Control = operational. Is that what you're asking? Edit: Actually I believe I'm wrong. If you look at the ensemble chart we always post, there is a separate entry for control members. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 It looks basically the same as the GFS at day 6.Except it really doesn't. Small errors in the handling of shortwaves can make a huge difference down the road. This is erroneous: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Day 10http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Arctic air moving southwest towards Montana southeast BC, southern AB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I believe Control = operational. Is that what you're asking? Edit: Actually I believe I'm wrong. If you look at the ensemble chart we always post, there is a separate entry for control members.Yea. They are different. I am assuming the operational is generally the most accurate though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm out. Good night all 6z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Except it really doesn't. Small errors in the handling of shortwaves can make a huge difference down the road. That was my point. It really didn't lead to much of a difference down the road. Very similar evolution to the GFS overall. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. One possible error in the handling of a shortwave doesn't mean you have to throw out the entire run. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm betting by the end of the week the models will be latching onto something good for us. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm betting by the end of the week the models will be latching onto something good for us.The ridge will likely take the first half but I believe the trough can take the 2nd half. Just need a few touchdowns. Onside kick to start the 3rd Q? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Some signs of retrogression at the end of the GEPS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Meanwhile the solar is really tanking now. The November sunspot number was only 5.9 and the AP index is currently below 5. Another reason this winter should be great. Blocky La Nina winter at the bottom of the solar cycle are usually quite good. Out of the last 3 cycles 1984-85, 1995-96, and 2008-09 all fill that criteria. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Meanwhile the solar is really tanking now. The November sunspot number was only 5.9 and the AP index is currently below 5. Another reason this winter should be great. Blocky La Nina winter at the bottom of the solar cycle are usually quite good. Out of the last 3 cycles 1984-85, 1995-96, and 2008-09 all fill that criteria.I agree with this. I have run the numbers for low solar La Niña winters in southern BC. Looking only at snowfall for YVR, YXX and Shawnigan Lake. 64, 71, 73, 74, 75, 84, 95, 07, 08. Average snowfall for those winters was 213%, 214%, and 177%, respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I agree with this. I have run the numbers for low solar La Niña winters in southern BC. Looking only at snowfall for YVR, YXX and Shawnigan Lake. 64, 71, 73, 74, 75, 84, 95, 07, 08. Average snowfall for those winters was 213%, 214%, and 177%, respectively. Yes indeed. I am seriously thinking this death ridge is a good sign for later. It has to be made up for. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 People might want to check out my post about the Dec 1956 cold wave in the This Day in History thread. It's pretty relevant to our current situation. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 PDX is all the way down to 39! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 31 and clear here! It has happened. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Another freeze here. At 30 currently. No fog like the rest of the area. Congrats Tim, you finally made it! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 37 degree rain! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just went down to 29.8. Can see just some hints of the fog in the distance. Edit: Actually fog is thickening up as it gets lighter. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Actually there are some high clouds out there making for a nice a sunrise... there is lots of ice because it was wet last night. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 30 frosty degrees here! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Tim, congratulations on your first freeze. Christmas Countdown: 21 Days12/4/17 Teleconnection Indices Forecast The massive +PNA is forecast to steadily weaken through the 18th. Compared to previous runs this is a bit promising. Hopefully in the coming days that trend both continues and drops off a bit more quickly. We need the EPO also to turn negative in-step with a -PNA. Keep in mind, this forecast often changes from run-to-run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Tim, congratulations on your first freeze. Thanks... it was a team effort. I could not have done it without all of your support! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 12z GFS Day 5http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120412/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm betting by the end of the week the models will be latching onto something good for us.I think this is very possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Day 6http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120412/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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