December Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Alaskan ridge looking pathetic

[Timmy]

Ridge has really retreated around day 6 last several runs now

[BLI snowman]

Not really even close.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 -- Meh.... Well, cut-off at base of ridge is weaker and further south

[Timmy]

This whole thing is looking to turn into a progressive trough.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We are getting shitt on.

[ShawniganLake]

Southerly flow. Rain incoming.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What happened to the block?

[Gradient Keeper]

Not really even close.

Yeah. Awful.... but I still like the trends to suppress the ridge over us more quickly. If we can just remove that initial lead cut-off system. The weaker Alaskan ridge really is not in agreement with any Ensembles or latest 00z EPS though. Keep that in mind.

[Jesse]

Nice to see PDX score another freeze. 28 here.

[Deweydog]

Clipper alert!

[Gradient Keeper]

It is definitely a trend on the Op past 4 runs to weaken the ridge, but not on the Ensembles yet

[Winterdog]

Wow, this is a revolting turn of events.  This ship is heading out of port and will likely take a long time to return.  

[Gradient Keeper]

BUT WAIT. HOLD UP

 

Latest Teleconnections Indices forecast could promote or support a more favorable pattern change in models soon.

 

[BLI snowman]

It is definitely a trend on the Op past 4 runs to weaken the ridge, but not on the Ensembles yet

 

Getting to the point with the overall pattern where the OP is superior, though (~Day 4/5). 

 

Gonna take another pattern reset.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

BUT WAIT. HOLD UP

 

 

 

Latest Teleconnections Indices forecast would promote or support a more favorable pattern change in models soon.

 

 

As long as the goddam ridge over Alaska amplifies. Otherwise we are 33.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'll work on keeping the PNA tanked after the 23rd

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It can change tomorrow to great just as easy as it turned to lastnight. Pretty common.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMC certainly is not ideal, but it's MUCH better with a stronger block(as Ensembles consistently show) This is even better than it's 00z run last night.

[Timmy]

The gem is quite different at day 10 than the gfs

[Deweydog]

The gem is quite different at day 10 than the gfs

There's a first time for everything!

[Gradient Keeper]

 

12z CMC certainly is not ideal, but it's MUCH better with a stronger block(as Ensembles consistently show) This is even better than it's 00z run last night.

 

 

 

The gem is quite different at day 10 than the gfs

Yep as I posted above. Entirely different than the Jekyll-Hyde GFS Op

 

I find the improvements on 12z GEM encouraging coupled with what may be a trend to suppress the ridge over us day 3-6.

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison - If this is a trend it's encouraging.

 

00z CMC last night at Day 10

 

 

and today's 12z at Day 10

[Winterdog]

According to the GFS it looks like a warm and wet Christmas.  Happy sledding everyone.

[Front Ranger]

 

BUT WAIT. HOLD UP

 

Latest Teleconnections Indices forecast could promote or support a more favorable pattern change in models soon.

 

Unfortunately, that's not how it works. The models lead to the teleconnections forecasts, the teleconnections don't lead the models.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMC look what's digging south at Day 10. I don't see anything to impede this either.

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately, that's not how it works. The models lead to the teleconnections forecasts, the teleconnections don't lead the models.

That's still a hell of a lot better than even yesterday's indices.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s nice having a few different models to look at. We can always find something promising.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Didn't this happen in 2008? Models went back to warm then blasted us as we got within 8-10 days.

[Front Ranger]

That's still a hell of a lot better than even yesterday's indices.

 

Yeah, it shows the near-miss with the blocking ridge as we get -PNA, but it starts to go up as soon as the EPO starts to tank. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I heard the model riding back during the historic 1919 event was legendary full of ripe sarcasm, one liners, and political jabs.

 

12z ECMWF in 49 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, it shows the near-miss with the blocking ridge as we get -PNA, but it starts to go up as soon as the EPO starts to tank. 

Yeah, and we really need to work on keeping the PNA negative after the 24th.

[BLI snowman]

Didn't this happen in 2008? Models went back to warm then blasted us as we got within 8-10 days.

 

It's pretty common for models to jump the gun on a significant pattern change. It happened to an extent in 2008, but not at this range.

 

It's also pretty common for long range models to just throw sh*t at the walls and hope it sticks. That seems likely to be the case here.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS begins soon. If it's anywhere close to the 12z CMC Op that would be great.

[ShawniganLake]

Didn't this happen in 2008? Models went back to warm then blasted us as we got within 8-10 days.

When you say models, are you referring to a couple of rogue GFS runs? The EPS has been pretty consistent. We will likely continue to wait.

[Gradient Keeper]

When you say models, are you referring to a couple of rogue GFS runs? The EPS has been pretty consistent. We will likely continue to wait.

Without a doubt the EPS has been the most consistent.

[Gradient Keeper]

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 2 hours ago

La Nina Winters often feature large shifts in the pattern over North America. Looking like another significant shift in the pattern between the 6-10d and 11-15d period forecasts.

 

 

 

 

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 3 hours ago

Great example of our @WxCoEnergy Clusters in 12-hourly resolution in which models are having a very difficult time in predicting the timing and placement of an arctic cold front for Christmas Eve. GEFS Clusters on Top, ECMWF EPS middle, and GEM Ensembles on bottom.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Didn't this happen in 2008? Models went back to warm then blasted us as we got within 8-10 days.

Yes a phew times... there was even a few pull backs with smaller scale stuff within 7 days but in the end it worked out beautifully. ... the larger overall picture was pretty clear at 10 days, but it did get pushed out a number of times.

[Gradient Keeper]

Through day 10 12z GEFS holds a block near 140-135 W. Ensembles are I guess decent through day 8. Op obviously an outlier how 500mb pattern and ridge/block evolves.

[MossMan]

Another amazingly slick drive this morning...guess Snohomish Co is saving all of their sand and de icer for the big event coming up!