December Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't believe how much worse the 00z ensembles were. Hanging by a thread. 

[Phil]

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121300/168/500h_anom.na.png

+++++++NAO.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Canadian ensembles were definitely colder than the GFS ensembles.  Not epic cold, but colder than normal.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

+++++++NAO.

 

What say you. A trend or more (MOORE) noise? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

FWIW, the GEFS tend to mirror the OP a lot more than most other guidance.

 

I see it all the time here with both tropical systems and blizzards. When the OP GFS swings, so does its ensemble mean.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Kamchatka low deepened 40mb in 24 hours

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 MEH

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Not good

[Gradient Keeper]

We could easily see 12z runs revert back to very cold solutions.... always seems unlikely of course.

[liquidsnow]

Ok clock is at 0 now. It's over.

 

Better luck next time.

[BLI snowman]

I think this was our best chance this winter. Sun angles increase soon and late January is basically spring. Westerlies will want to come back soon, too.

 

Darn.

[Gradient Keeper]

If our ridge flattens at day 7 this might be okay..... Might. Could be. IF. Maybe. Almost. Sorta. Nearly. Shoulda. Coulda. Woulda. Next frame gives me a lot of gas and digestive trouble.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We could easily see 12z runs revert back to very cold solutions.... always seems unlikely of course.

 

They could be as kinky as Matt Lauer at a holiday party.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not good

 

 

But this month is supposed to be EXTRA COLD! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXugq8vH-Ok

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 cut-off lows galore!

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

This is honestly far better than I expected

[liquidsnow]

Looks like the top of a coconut or bowling ball...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is a lot better than the GFS

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The GEM ends up in a pretty good place with shortwave action reving up off the northern BC coast. The ECMWF still looks much better than the 0z GFS at hour 168.

 

[TT-SEA]

Very little rain over the next 7 days on the 00Z ECMWF... and correspondingly very little snow in the mountains.

 

It was looking very wet from Friday - Tuesday on some previous runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 .... don't look.... don't. really. do not look

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

As the Medford NWS forecaster said earlier, the EURO has shown very poor run-to-run consistency. This run shows that for sure.

[Gradient Keeper]

I will go out on a limb.. 12z runs tomorrow will look quite a bit different, in a good way.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 ... This pattern evolution just looks weird. Throw this run out.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Okay, I wasn't going to do it...... but..... MBG 12z runs tomorrow are decidedly better.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 32 minutes

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Day 9 ... This pattern evolution just looks weird. Throw this run out.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/216/500h_anom.na.png

Every other run from every other model for the last several weeks has shown, in the long run, a massive ridge.  Where it forms has varied.  This run is the first one that I have seen with such a weak ridge.  

[Gradient Keeper]

The GEM ends up in a pretty good place with shortwave action reving up off the northern BC coast. The ECMWF still looks much better than the 0z GFS at hour 168.

 

That's not bad, but that deep trough over the east/southeast..... maybe when it swings out to the northeast..

[Gradient Keeper]

Every other run from every other model for the last several weeks has shown, in the long run, a massive ridge.  Where it forms has varied.  This run is the first one that I have seen with such a weak ridge.  

Yep. Very little model consistency either way right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not sure I should even bother posting Day 10

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/240/500h_anom.na.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That's not bad, but that deep trough over the east/southeast..... maybe when it swings out to the northeast..

 

If we got there I wouldn't be worried, it looks ripe for a snap regression.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

At least day 10 looks a bit better, FWIW.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, 00z CMCE Ensembles still show very cold surface temp anomalies

[Gradient Keeper]

In 12 hours we went from ...... REALLY

to .....

Oh... man...... really ....

 

12z GFS in 8 hours 20 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

No wizard tonight?

[Gradient Keeper]

Okay, yeah, definitely discard the 00z ECMWF Op.

 

 A massive, outer worldly surface high over nearly all of North America?

What about that funky set of double cut-off lows? Righttttt. NOPE

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/240/sfcmslp.na.png

[Phil]

Need to get that vortex out of Greenland. Would help utilize NAMT forcing and accelerate the retrogression.

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully the store will take a return on those ice skates I bought this afternoon.

[Phil]

If this busts, blame Tim’s snowblower.

[GHweatherChris]

If this busts, blame Tim’s snowblower.

And there it is.