December Weather In the PNW

[MikeInEverett]

"Forecast models lie satellites don't" - NWS retiring forecaster.

 

Let's get cold snow within 96 hours not 384 hrs.

Doesn’t mean we can’t have fun with the eye candy!

[Jesse]

Yeah, I’m thinking it lasts ~ 3 weeks.

Another midwinter sustained cold pattern would be a trip coming off of last December/January.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]

Next up.................

*00z GFS in 2 hours 21 minutes (7:24 PM)

00z CMC(Canadian) in 3 hours 6 minutes (8:09 PM)

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 42 minutes (9:45 PM)

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄❄☃❄❄❄☃

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Time to watch models 24/7. No sleep till Brooklyn.

[Prairiedog]

Its been fun watching this group a few years ago when anyone who even dared salivate and talk about  a model run 10 or more days out, was laughed and mocked into submission.  Then little by little we started peeking and salivating a little farther out and a little further out.  Now we are doing a happy dance in the 14 day la la land clown range models.  Ok, I'm in.  We all know how this "usually" turns out, but not always.  So there IS a chance?  Maybe this is the year it all holds together from this far out.   

[Jbolin]

Time to watch models 24/7. No sleep till Brooklyn.

Intergalactic Planetary 

[Deweydog]

Intergalactic Planetary

Your mom threw away your best (model) porno mag...

 

Busted.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Better correlation SCORE, maybe the best yet. By the way, refresh my memory as to what that actually is. Some good years too, 1985, despite the white Christmas bust, 1990 too.

 

[Jesse]

Better correlation SCORE, maybe the best yet. By the way, refresh my memory as to what that actually is. Some good years too, 1985, despite the white Christmas bust, 1990 too.

 

500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

I don’t see 1993, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2008 or 2011 (our 6 best Januaries of the last half century). Bad sign.

[Jesse]

Its been fun watching this group a few years ago when anyone who even dared salivate and talk about a model run 10 or more days out, was laughed and mocked into submission. Then little by little we started peeking and salivating a little farther out and a little further out. Now we are doing a happy dance in the 14 day la la land clown range models. Ok, I'm in. We all know how this "usually" turns out, but not always. So there IS a chance? Maybe this is the year it all holds together from this far out.

This isn’t really an accurate narrative. We’ve always looked at the long range with impunity.

 

Granted the long range models have probably gotten more accurate over the years, overall.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Love to see another 1990 again. To this day its still the most aggressive winter storm I've ever seen here.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I’m thinking it lasts ~ 3 weeks.

 

Hopefully it doesn't start until after Christmas so our very cold January calls will still be on the table. 

[Front Ranger]

Doesn’t mean we can’t have fun with the eye candy!

 

Too much eye candy will make you sick, though.

[westcoastexpat]

This isn’t really an accurate narrative. We’ve always looked at the long range with impunity.

 

Granted the long range models have probably gotten more accurate over the years, overall.

I agree. I think getting excited for hour 384 is basically the theme of every west coast winter. Sometimes that's all there is to look forward to.

[Front Ranger]

This isn’t really an accurate narrative. We’ve always looked at the long range with impunity.

 

Granted the long range models have probably gotten more accurate over the years, overall.

 

Someone can feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I read (granted, a few years ago) that the stuff within 10 days has gotten quite a bit more accurate in the past 20 years, but not so much the stuff out past 10 days.

[Front Ranger]

I agree. I think getting excited for hour 384 is basically the theme of every west coast winter. Sometimes that's all there is to look forward to.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Question for Phil, how have the verification scores been lately for the GFS vs. the Euro?

 

Some ridiculous eye candy on these GFS runs, but it's hard to feel optimistic without the Euro being onboard.

 

Looks like the Euro is pretty much on board. Not as extreme, but still cold. Like Ben Noll said a pretty respectable Nina like this won't be denied.

 

[Winterdog]

Was out and unable to look at models most of the day. The GFS is outrageous. The 18Z shows snow north of Seattle on the 21st. I'm not buying any of it though until we get inside a week with all models going in the same direction. We've seen stuff like this completely disappear before. In fact more times than not they either disappear or get severely truncated. Anyway it's fun to follow. Had a 41/27 day today but the frost all melted with the cloud cover. Currently 32 though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Cold pool much?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Better correlation SCORE, maybe the best yet. By the way, refresh my memory as to what that actually is. Some good years too, 1985, despite the white Christmas bust, 1990 too.

 

500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

This is looking really quite good if not exceptional with a number of very cold/snowy years. Another huge change is note the pattern shown in the D+8 now. Interesting. Correlation Score has also improved as you mentioned.

[Winterdog]

Oh dear lord...

 

I think this is a much nicer map from a few hours earlier.

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx

Unusually good agreement between GEFS and EPS on major pattern change in time for Christmas; Colder and stormier west while ridge builds east coast

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/940674861231468545

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 42 minutes

[Winterdog]

Or this.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Every time a clown range map is posted, that scenario becomes less likely to verify. Science.

[Winterdog]

Every time a clown range map is posted, that scenario becomes less likely to verify. Science.

Now that you said that it will happen. Whoops, now it won't, now it will, now it won't... you get the idea.

[van city]

Now that you said that it will happen. Whoops, now it won't, now it will, now it won't... you get the idea.

In Phil we trust!!!

[Front Ranger]

Now that you said that it will happen. Whoops, now it won't, now it will, now it won't... you get the idea.

 

I only hope that my post will make people more aware of the issue, and therefore avert future disasters.

[Winterdog]

I only hope that my post will make people more aware of the issue, and therefore avert future disasters.

I have a rule that I don't tell my wife about a modeled arctic front or snow event until I'm sure it's going to happen. Every time I disregard the rule it goes away so I know it's a scientific fact that counting your chickens before they hatch is a truism.

[Deweydog]

In Phil we trust!!!

******AND FLATIRON TOO******

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 4 minutes! OMG

 

[Winterdog]

******AND FLATIRON TOO******

Don't forget about Snow_Wiz. He is putting this winter on the list of great ones all by the force of his will.

[Front Ranger]

******AND FLATIRON TOO******

 

We both went cold for January.

 

One of us officially went cool for December. The other went warm. 

 

[Jesse]

I have to give credit to Phil because at the mid/end of November he marked mid-December as the time for when the models would start to show the goods in the clown range, which has turned out to be true.

 

Now it's all about sticking the landing. Let's hope for this forum's sake he does.

 

Phil has done pretty well with the blow by blow out here since July or so. It's definitely been impressive.

[Front Ranger]

Don't forget about Snow_Wiz. He is putting this winter on the list of great ones all by the force of his will.

 

Also remember Rob, who as always is putting in more hours and depriving himself of more sleep than any of us tracking the models. That's like herding cats.

[umadbro]

Don't forget me. I look at them when I have the chance between work, family, fishing and video games!

[Jbolin]

Don't forget me. I look at them when I have the chance between work, family, fishing and video games!

[van city]

******AND FLATIRON TOO******

No, in Phil week trust. Lol

[umadbro]

Who can turn down a cookie?

[Deweydog]

No, in Phil week trust. Lol

Elders from the Analog Church of Flatiron will soon be biking to your door and trying to convert you.