Tom Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 18z NAM now in the same camp...hmm, might have some wx headlines from the afternoon crew... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 18z NAM3km very similar.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 more interesting than a packer browns game....lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 This clipper is looking mighty fine! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 18z NAM3km very similar.... But for some reason, is very skimpy across SMI...go figure as it's often the most jacked-up model of them all. Euro very similar to GEM with a healthy qpf streak across SMI but places it about a county north, thus I vote GEM, lol. Also, the Euro seems to be missing the backside LES signature that's quite obvious on all the other models. Quite an array of solutions for a 36 hr time frame. As for headlines, knowing my office, they'll find some excuse not to issue for mby. Their two faves are "long duration" and "moderate rates". Remember, we never got a WSWatch for an 18-20" Mega-dog. I get headlines (see Thursday) when I shouldn't, and vice-versa. Lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 This clipper is looking mighty fine! I'm crossing body parts that the more amped models win out, and we get the late-game uptick that is often the theme with classic clippers. Was in South Kalamazoo area this afternoon. I expected to find the snow there twice as deep as here in Marshall, but was surprised to find that it was about the same. Actually, I prefer the covering in my hood to what I saw there tbh. All in all tho, there's solid ground cover from Marshall on west, even in the open freeway median. I know Van Buren got hit good Saturday, so it's truly snow-on-snow time across SWMI. My commute Monday evening will have that winter wonderland flavor that I relish so! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 And with zero fan-fare (as expected) GRR completely down plays the synoptic part of the storm, going so far as to mention their arm wrestling surrounding offices into forgetting about using the very tools they've been given for warning the public! Focusing not on the widespread snows, but only on the backside LES. Winters just begun, and ive already had it with that office's total LES bias! "Some sort of winter weather headline will eventually be needed forthis event for those areas. Further inland snow accumulations willbe significantly less. Thanks for extensive coord on the NO HEADLINEdecisions at this time APX/DTX/IWX." Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 I'm crossing body parts that the more amped models win out, and we get the late-game uptick that is often the theme with classic clippers. Was in South Kalamazoo area this afternoon. I expected to find the snow there twice as deep as here in Marshall, but was surprised to find that it was about the same. Actually, I prefer the covering in my hood to what I saw there tbh. All in all tho, there's solid ground cover from Marshall on west, even in the open freeway median. I know Van Buren got hit good Saturday, so it's truly snow-on-snow time across SWMI. My commute Monday evening will have that winter wonderland flavor that I relish so!This area usually gets double the amount of snow you receive. Wow, shocked there was an equal amount of snow between both locales. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Jaster, how much snow are ya forecasted to get w tomorrows clipper?! I am in the 2-4" category, maybe a bit higher, depending on where the deformation band forms. Close call for me....and Noaa explains beneath this post.... Still looking ata wide swath of 1-2 inch snowfall across SE MI with a band ofheavier snow around 3 inches likely with the deformation band on thenortheast flank of the low. Currently this band looks to set upbetween M59 and I94. A lead leaf of broad isentropic ascent ahead ofthe broader trough will bring light snow showers to the areastarting 15-18Z with the heavier band occuring between 21-03Z.Remnant light showers will taper off around 12Z Tuesday when drierair moves in. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Jaster, how much snow are ya forecasted to get w tomorrows clipper?! I am in the 2-4" category, maybe a bit higher, depending on where the deformation band forms. Close call for me....and Noaa explains beneath this post.... Still looking ata wide swath of 1-2 inch snowfall across SE MI with a band ofheavier snow around 3 inches likely with the deformation band on thenortheast flank of the low. Currently this band looks to set upbetween M59 and I94. A lead leaf of broad isentropic ascent ahead ofthe broader trough will bring light snow showers to the areastarting 15-18Z with the heavier band occuring between 21-03Z.Remnant light showers will taper off around 12Z Tuesday when drierair moves in.Looks like 2-3" attm per my local text. I like DTX's wording for that heavier band. Hoping it comes just half a county south tho, for obvious reasons, then we'd both be "in the goods" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Many hrs old already, but this from IWX is a much better disco on the clipper than my office had: .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Evening)Issued at 246 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 A minor low amplitude disturbance, embedded in northwest flow,will force a weak sfc trough the area early this evening. Nothingmore than clouds and few flurries expected with this wave givenweak forcing and shallow moisture profile. A more robust shortwave will drop southeast into the NorthernPlains tonight and into the Lower Great Lakes by later Monday/Mondayevening. Leading WAA/isentropic ascent wing will focus an area oflight snow on the nose of this warm advection into WI/MI Mondaymorning through mid afternoon. The southern edge of this precipshield will likely clip our far northern zones, with areasalong/south of US 30 likely remaining mainly dry. Deeper ascentwith the main vort max...and tightening low level baroclinicresponse... should promote full top-down saturation and chancesfor a healthier fgen band to set up across lower MI (and possiblyfar nrn IN/nw OH) in the afternoon and evening, though whereexactly this sets up is still uncertain. Pacific origin with850-700 mb layer specific humidities nearing 3 g/kg enough tosupport a quick 1-3" of snow and difficult travel where bandingmaterializes. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Looks like 2-3" attm per my local text. I like DTX's wording for that heavier band. Hoping it comes just half a county south tho, for obvious reasons, then we'd both be "in the goods"I think we both bold well for tomorrows snow-event. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Many hrs old already, but this from IWX is a much better disco on the clipper than my office had: .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Evening)Issued at 246 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 A minor low amplitude disturbance, embedded in northwest flow,will force a weak sfc trough the area early this evening. Nothingmore than clouds and few flurries expected with this wave givenweak forcing and shallow moisture profile. A more robust shortwave will drop southeast into the NorthernPlains tonight and into the Lower Great Lakes by later Monday/Mondayevening. Leading WAA/isentropic ascent wing will focus an area oflight snow on the nose of this warm advection into WI/MI Mondaymorning through mid afternoon. The southern edge of this precipshield will likely clip our far northern zones, with areasalong/south of US 30 likely remaining mainly dry. Deeper ascentwith the main vort max...and tightening low level baroclinicresponse... should promote full top-down saturation and chancesfor a healthier fgen band to set up across lower MI (and possiblyfar nrn IN/nw OH) in the afternoon and evening, though whereexactly this sets up is still uncertain. Pacific origin with850-700 mb layer specific humidities nearing 3 g/kg enough tosupport a quick 1-3" of snow and difficult travel where bandingmaterializes.That is a good start. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 0z NAM laid an egg on Tom's hopes tho! Izzi @ LOT is buying what it's selling, says the last minute north trend's legit. As I've mentioned, it's early Dec, climo doesn't favor suppressed-n-south outcomes. Heck, NAM even has me dry-slotted, but actually looks better for SEMI. Niko's storm me thinks.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 0z NAM laid an egg on Tom's hopes tho! Izzi @ LOT is buying what it's selling, says the last minute north trend's legit. As I've mentioned, it's early Dec, climo doesn't favor suppressed-n-south outcomes. Heck, NAM even has me dry-slotted, but actually looks better for SEMI. Niko's storm me thinks..Yup, that's why I dislike being on the southern end of any clipper track. The lack of any Greenland block is also a factor for a northerly nudge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 0z NAM laid an egg on Tom's hopes tho! Izzi @ LOT is buying what it's selling, says the last minute north trend's legit. As I've mentioned, it's early Dec, climo doesn't favor suppressed-n-south outcomes. Heck, NAM even has me dry-slotted, but actually looks better for SEMI. Niko's storm me thinks..Lets hope so! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 wow...local met just removed all the snow...how far north did this thing go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 wow...local met just removed all the snow...how far north did this thing go?Light snow here right now - they are suggesting 2-3 inches in a Madison to Milwaukee swath this afternoon. We’ll see of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Light snow here right now - they are suggesting 2-3 inches in a Madison to Milwaukee swath this afternoon. We’ll see of course.00z Euro looks about right... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121100/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_36.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 00z Euro looks about right... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121100/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_36.png "Snow-on-snow watch" in effect for mby! I was hopeful with this system having better ingredients to exceed my score from Saturday, not the other direction, lol. Guess I'd take another 1.5" at home, even tho a melt-off is looming. Gotta take snow when you're given the gift! Many others nasso lucky, I'm fully aware.. So I turn in last night with zero headlines, and don't take time early in the morning to get any updates. Driving into work, and the Kzoo station is saying WWA in effect there, then I hit Van Buren and the MDOT digital sign (where they normally will flash any NWS wx headlines) was lit up with WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY. Needless to say, I was stoked! #awesomeness! Such a Monday morning pick-me-up! better than a cup of strong Joe-to-go from Starbucks! Snow OTG wasn't deep util I got within about 10 miles of the coast, then it quickly ramped to 5-7" depth with that "we just got hit with a snowstorm" look - fresh white plow banks and parking lot piles. Roads still very snow covered and slippery. My AWD is a lot of fun when it's like this outside. On top of this, IWX has a WSWatch hoisted and it could be really rocking here tomorrow! .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)Issued at 418 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 Very impressive lake parameters coming together on Tuesday asextreme instability is present for the entire day as sfc-700mbdelta Ts eclipse 30 setting stage for intense snow bands. NAM120-2km ThetaE lapse rates remain impressive and nearing -4 k/km.Flow will be from a north northwest direction with tap into LakeSuperior moisture for pre-conditioning before long NW fetch overLake Michigan. Hires models all in general agreement with severallong and intense bands streaming well southeast and into Ohio andbeyond. The differences as expected are on where each of thesebands will set up and how they will migrate during the period. At this time step there is enough confidence for a watch assynoptic and mesoscale parameters will support very intense bandswith snowfall rates likely reaching 2-3 inches per hour onTuesday. The extreme instability, lake induced CAPE nearing 1000j/kg on NAM12 bufkit, would also suggest rare thunder snow apossibility. Strong flow of 30 to 40 knots expected to push thesebands well inland and they should remain quite strong throughcentral portions of CWA. Several models have high end advisory orlow end warning criteria amounts as far south as Kosciusko andnoble counties. With combination of snow and wind have opted toinclude these inland counties in the watch with significantimpacts expected. Also thinking advisories will be needed evenfurther south and southeast where the most dominant band ends up,possibly into Fort Wayne area and beyond on Tuesday. The only possible negative for this event is theinversion heights appear to remain between 7 and 10kft throughentire event. However, strong lift is coincident with saturatedDGZ and with upstream conditioning think convection should besufficient to occur in the saturated layer. Expect event to beginwaning late Tuesday night as low level flow backs and drier airworks in crashing inversion heights overnight. Total accums right now expected in the 5 to 9 inch range withlocal accums around a foot possible where one of the bands remainsstationary. Question remains on which of the multiple bandsexpected will become most dominant. Also must point out that thistype of flow/event often leads to merging bands and increasedsnowfall rates. A few hires models hinting at this but no way toanticipate when or where it will actually happen. Still looks like another clipper Wednesday into Thursday followed bymore lake effect. Only adjustment to blend was to increase NW areapops to likely for expected next round of lake effect. May be a snoozer for mby in Marshall, but I'll get in the LES action since it's work day timed. Euro's quite the sexy map for those in the right flow off the lakes, should be HUGE for peeps east like NOH, NWNY, etc Bliz there no doubt! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Per NOAA: As far as snowfall amounts go,including the light snow from the daytime hours, 1-4 inch totalsstill seem reasonable, and will favor the Euro solution highlightingthe middle tier (M-59/I-69) counties with highest totals. Thisscenario also has support from the 6z RAP13 through 3Z Tuesday. Anadvisory may be needed as 3 inches in six hours is possible, but dueto uncertainty with the exact placement and bulk of activity nowlooking to come just after the evening commute. Note: An WWA might be posted for my area by the pm hour. Still plenty of opportunities for additional snow late in the work week into theweekend as active baroclinic zone looks to be straddling the GreatLakes Region with temperatures residing fairly close to normalvalues. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 "Snow-on-snow watch" in effect for mby! I was hopeful with this system having better ingredients to exceed my score from Saturday, not the other direction, lol. Guess I'd take another 1.5" at home, even tho a melt-off is looming. Gotta take snow when you're given the gift! Many others nasso lucky, I'm fully aware.. So I turn in last night with zero headlines, and don't take time early in the morning to get any updates. Driving into work, and the Kzoo station is saying WWA in effect there, then I hit Van Buren and the MDOT digital sign (where they normally will flash any NWS wx headlines) was lit up with WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY. Needless to say, I was stoked! #awesomeness! Such a Monday morning pick-me-up! better than a cup of strong Joe-to-go from Starbucks! Snow OTG wasn't deep util I got within about 10 miles of the coast, then it quickly ramped to 5-7" depth with that "we just got hit with a snowstorm" look - fresh white plow banks and parking lot piles. Roads still very snow covered and slippery. My AWD is a lot of fun when it's like this outside. On top of this, IWX has a WSWatch hoisted and it could be really rocking here tomorrow! .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)Issued at 418 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 Very impressive lake parameters coming together on Tuesday asextreme instability is present for the entire day as sfc-700mbdelta Ts eclipse 30 setting stage for intense snow bands. NAM120-2km ThetaE lapse rates remain impressive and nearing -4 k/km.Flow will be from a north northwest direction with tap into LakeSuperior moisture for pre-conditioning before long NW fetch overLake Michigan. Hires models all in general agreement with severallong and intense bands streaming well southeast and into Ohio andbeyond. The differences as expected are on where each of thesebands will set up and how they will migrate during the period. At this time step there is enough confidence for a watch assynoptic and mesoscale parameters will support very intense bandswith snowfall rates likely reaching 2-3 inches per hour onTuesday. The extreme instability, lake induced CAPE nearing 1000j/kg on NAM12 bufkit, would also suggest rare thunder snow apossibility. Strong flow of 30 to 40 knots expected to push thesebands well inland and they should remain quite strong throughcentral portions of CWA. Several models have high end advisory orlow end warning criteria amounts as far south as Kosciusko andnoble counties. With combination of snow and wind have opted toinclude these inland counties in the watch with significantimpacts expected. Also thinking advisories will be needed evenfurther south and southeast where the most dominant band ends up,possibly into Fort Wayne area and beyond on Tuesday. The only possible negative for this event is theinversion heights appear to remain between 7 and 10kft throughentire event. However, strong lift is coincident with saturatedDGZ and with upstream conditioning think convection should besufficient to occur in the saturated layer. Expect event to beginwaning late Tuesday night as low level flow backs and drier airworks in crashing inversion heights overnight. Total accums right now expected in the 5 to 9 inch range withlocal accums around a foot possible where one of the bands remainsstationary. Question remains on which of the multiple bandsexpected will become most dominant. Also must point out that thistype of flow/event often leads to merging bands and increasedsnowfall rates. A few hires models hinting at this but no way toanticipate when or where it will actually happen. Still looks like another clipper Wednesday into Thursday followed bymore lake effect. Only adjustment to blend was to increase NW areapops to likely for expected next round of lake effect. May be a snoozer for mby in Marshall, but I'll get in the LES action since it's work day timed. Euro's quite the sexy map for those in the right flow off the lakes, should be HUGE for peeps east like NOH, NWNY, etc Bliz there no doubt! 20171211 0z 48hr Euro 500 mb.pngI like that band of darker blue color stretching right into my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Both NAM's showing a weenie band across MSN/MKE due east towards Niko's pad... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Both NAM's showing a weenie band across MSN/MKE due east towards Niko's pad... Dare I say a 6inch storm for me???!!! I am thinking that is where the deformation band sets up. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 12 NAM has that look the Euro/Euro Control have been showing for the Wed/Thu clipper...advisory snows??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 12 NAM has that look the Euro/Euro Control have been showing for the Wed/Thu clipper...advisory snows???That is further north than this mornings GRR discussion had it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Www from 11 to 6....up to 3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 GRR early am AFD was pretty positive for the defo-band snows to be down along i-94, but nowcast trends putting it back north, eh? From this morning: .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017I have decided (in coordination with our Gaylord and North Websteroffices) to issue a Winter Storm Warning for all of our lake shorecounties for tonight through Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Thisis a dangerous situation as there will be heavy snow squalls fromwith winds will be gusting to over 40 mph resulting in near zerovisibilities in the heavier snow bands.We have a clipper type low tracking south southeast towardChicago for late this afternoon. That will keep all of our CWA inthe snow from the warm advection / isentropic lift part of theevent. This will bring two periods of snow. The first one is thewarm advection part of the event, which will last only about 3hours in any one place. It will for the most part occur fromaround 8 am near Muskegon end by Jackson by 1 pm. That should be a1 to 2 inch snowfall event. The second part of this is thedeformation zone snow band that from most of the high resolutionmodels (for several runs in a row) to occur near I-94 from around4-5 pm till around 9 pm. This will have heavier snow with it, morelike 2 to 3 inches. I considered an advisory for this event butthe event tonight into Wednesday morning seems to this forecast tobe a much more significant event so to keep the headlines simpleI only have headlines for the Lake Effect event tonight intoWednesday morning.With the coldest air of the season crossing water that is stillover 40 degrees, and 850 temperature near zero, that is by far andaway a very unstable setup. Bufkit time sections show strong liftin the DGZ from around midnight tonight till around earlyWednesday morning. The inversion heights are near 10000 ft. Giventhere is 40 knots in the mixed layer for wind gusts, this seemslike an event that would need a warning.I put an advisory for the counties next to the warning area asthere will be some snow squalls that get into those counties. Theinland counties near route 10 will have a Lake Superior connectionand some upslope to help the cause.Inland of all that it will just be windy and cold Tuesday intoTuesday night. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Gfs came in a bit south with the Wed system Now showing 2-3 inch amounts in southern WI 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Hot off the press. This is getting serious for my office! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-112330-/O.EXT.KGRR.WS.W.0002.171211T1525Z-171213T1200Z/Mason-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-Including the cities of Ludington, Hart, Muskegon, Grand Haven,Jenison, Holland, and South Haven1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Travel will be verydifficult to impossible, including during the evening commuteon Tuesday. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches,with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are expected.* WHERE...Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan and Van Burencounties.* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph willcause areas of blowing and drifting snow.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow meanssignificant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that willmake travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in caseof an emergency.$ (my director already said I should prepare to stay and work at home if need be..this happened fast!) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Hot off the press. This is getting serious for my office! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-112330-/O.EXT.KGRR.WS.W.0002.171211T1525Z-171213T1200Z/Mason-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-Including the cities of Ludington, Hart, Muskegon, Grand Haven,Jenison, Holland, and South Haven1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Travel will be verydifficult to impossible, including during the evening commuteon Tuesday. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches,with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan and Van Burencounties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph willcause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow meanssignificant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that willmake travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in caseof an emergency. $ (my director already said I should prepare to stay and work at home if need be..this happened fast!) Dang! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Snow has started here and falling in a moderate clip. Everything is white. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 50 dBZ returns over gosaints. Woah. Wonder if that's all snow and what kind of rates are under there. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 GEM looks solid for the Wed clipper Looks a lot like the 12z nam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Gem is also solid for MN/WI/MI with the system this weekend 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=snku_024h&rh=2017121112&fh=66&r=us_mw&dpdt= Gem for Wed system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 @ GEM Nice..keep 'em coming - gonna be #buried in parts of SWMI the way it's going IWX, since GRR is yet to show a map (is that 12+ reds showing up I see??) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Rumors on the SMI forum is that the latest short-short-term guidance and nowcast radar will indeed pull that defo-band south a bit to the 94 corridor! Could be a 2013-14 flash-back moment for me this evening! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 @ GEM Nice..keep 'em coming - gonna be #buried in parts of SWMI the way it's going IWX, since GRR is yet to show a map (is that 12+ reds showing up I see??) 20171211 IWX am snowfall graphic.pngGuess those lollipop long range GFS/Euro snow maps weren’t far off in the snow belts of MI. Good luck! Pattern is shaping up to be pretty good for WI/MI posters. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Guess those lollipop long range GFS/Euro snow maps weren’t far off in the snow belts of MI. Good luck! Pattern is shaping up to be pretty good for WI/MI posters. Yep, these longer range model maps have come a long ways, even with that deep south snows for Houston that we laughed off cuz they seemed so ridiculous. Thanks for the well wishes and can't wait til everyone on here joins the party! Gonna be a blast when that happens! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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