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What's Up With The Solar Activity Lately?


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The 10.7cm radio flux is the more ideal measurement of overall solar activity levels, especially during solar minimum when sunspots are often unable to form. It picks up phenomena such as prominences,

NASA's Prediction of Solar Cycle 25  

Sunspot number: 0 What is the sunspot number? Updated 05 Jun 2019   Spotless Days Current Stretch: 17 days 2019 total: 91 days (58%)     Solar scientists say we've reached Minimum. Well, zero spot

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My husband is in Federal Emergency Management for North Texas. He mostly deals with Huriricanes and very large wildfires, but one of the things that worry all the responders is that our power grid needs to be hardened for several reasons... Space weather, terrorism, and Emp's from weapons detonated overhead.

We are way behind on taking care of this. One can only hope they'll get it done in time. I know security has been undergoing a tightening, but the grid is still very vulnerable, especially on the big feeder lines that criss-cross the country from generation stations.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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While it'd be nice to see the cycle end soon for shorter term results in the high latitude circulations, a longer cycle would be more typical entering a grand minima, and would make predictions much easier.this was posted today about the current solar cycle 24 some still reading the comments are not convinced that solar plays into cooling and warming cycles even those the evendence says strongly other wise.[/quotehttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/11/solar-cycle-24-activity-continues-to-be-lowest-in-nearly-200-years/
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For anyone interested in understanding the nature of solar forcing, and its expression through the Holocene as well as more recently, this is a must-read paper:

 

http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/lrsp-2008-3Color.pdf

 

The worldwide agreement noted in the Beryllium-10 proxies, regarding the magnitude of the recent solar maximum, is astounding.

 

 

For those who prefer visual representations of the compiled studies, here's a summary. The exceptional nature of the modern maximum, at least geomegnetically, is quite mind boggling when looking at the data over the duration of the Holocene.

 

Reconstruction of HMF at Earth-orbit using the Berrylium-10 isotope fractal:

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

 

Full Carbon-14 based solar activity reconstruction through the Holocene:

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

 

Aggregate of first two (BE^10, C^14) at base integral, plus the modern GSN on a higher resolution:

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

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While it'd be nice to see the cycle end soon for shorter term results in the high latitude circulations, a longer cycle would be more typical entering a grand minima, and would make predictions much easier.this was posted today about the current solar cycle 24 some still reading the comments are not convinced that solar plays into cooling and warming cycles even those the evendence says strongly other wise.[/quotehttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/11/solar-cycle-24-activity-continues-to-be-lowest-in-nearly-200-years/

 

Some scientists are taking a way too simplistic view on how solar grand maxima and grand minima effect the temperatures on Earth.  The effect is fairly small on a total global average temperature scale, but the placement of anomaly centers is greatly altered.  Grand minima are thought to cause highly amplified ridges over the Oceans which makes the continents (which is where everyone lives) much colder in the winter.  I think some scientists are playing dumb because they want to imagine everything happening to the climate is man caused.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The sun is very near spotless now.  Just two tiny spots and one is about to rotate off the edge.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The dramatic drop in solar activity over the past two week looks to continue with the sun going spotless in one or two days.  Looking at past records the current drop off (if it continues) will rate as one of the sharpest in this stage of the solar cycle on record.  Very interesting indeed!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Robert Filex posted a new update on the solar drop http://iceagenow.info/official-april-sunspots-continue-massive-downturn/

 

Just saw this. That's a huge dip!

 

Going to be even lower by year's end.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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The sun is finally blank again, zero sunspots the last 2 days. We are hopefully beginning a long period of very low solar activity at this point. This will be a crucial test to see what affects this can have on global temperature/climate. 

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The sun is finally blank again, zero sunspots the last 2 days. We are hopefully beginning a long period of very low solar activity at this point. This will be a crucial test to see what affects this can have on global temperature/climate. 

 

And today (5th) as well.

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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The sun continues with its "Zzzzzz" sleep...yet another spotless day recorded over the last 3-4 weeks.  That makes 4 days this year without a sunspot.  Trending lower with time...

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

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Pretty impressive how the solar acitvity is collapsing so quickly with solar min still 4 to 5 years out.  This is going to be a very long deep minimum it would appear.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4th day in a row the sun has zero sun spots...very interesting...wonder what implications this will create as we move forward towards the cold season.  CFSv2 has been gun hoe on intense Greenland Blocking along with a -AO.

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Wow!  Four consecutive spotless days and the x-ray flux is still dropping.  That makes 8 spotless days in the past few weeks.  Very impressive for this stage of the game.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 Days in a row and counting...no sunspot activity...

 

Here is the Sunspot Number Progression updated through May...

 

http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

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This is an astounding run of inactivity for this early in the cycle.  Not only have there been no spots for a week, but the flux continues a slow downward trend.  The flux numbers at present are essentially unable to support spots.  This run could go many more days.  At this stage in the last cycle there were only occasional isolated spotless days here and there.  Already looking like a good shot at the deepest and longest minimum in 200 years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Still spotless.  That makes over 10 consecutive days now.  This is looking like a BIG deal alright.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Still spotless. That makes over 10 consecutive days now. This is looking like a BIG deal alright.

Actually, it's at 11 days currently and NASA isn't expecting any flares today. I was not expecting to see this long of a stretch. It's rather interesting and we may be entering unchartered territory.

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The streak of spotless days on the sun has been broken at 12 days as 2 small sunspots have been recorded today.  We shall see how much activity we see throughout the Summer and how this may effect our Fall/Winter season.

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  • 3 weeks later...

It is expected that the sun may be blank for a good 10+ day stretch.

 

 

 

It's worth noting that Solar Minimum isn't here yet. Indeed, only one half of the sun is blank. Sunspot complex AR2565-AR2567 still exists on the farside of the sun, and it could return ~12 days from now when the sun's rotation spins those dark coresback around in our direction. Until then, stay tuned for blank suns.
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I believe THIS is noteworthy:

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 21 days (8%)  
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 25 Oct 2016

 

As per http://www.spaceweather.com

 

Now, I am not smart enough to make an educated guess on whether or not the 2016 spotless days has anything to do with the current stratosphere behavior. I can however speculate that the sunspots, or lack thereof, have something to do with it. Hmm...

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I believe THIS is noteworthy:

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2016 total: 21 days (8%)

2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (

2013 total: 0 days (0%)

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 25 Oct 2016

 

As per http://www.spaceweather.com

 

Now, I am not smart enough to make an educated guess on whether or not the 2016 spotless days has anything to do with the current stratosphere behavior. I can however speculate that the sunspots, or lack thereof, have something to do with it. Hmm...

I'd be inclined to agree with you. That doesn't include the massive number of days with low spot numbers this year either.

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The sun has been blank 4x in the past week or so.  Seemingly, we are heading towards the next minimum at a quick pace.  Next year should be interesting to watch these trends in solar activity.

Spaceweather.com says there has been 32 blank days this year, and I would add a lot of single spot days too. Definitely just about there for the minimum. 

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Spaceweather.com says there has been 32 blank days this year, and I would add a lot of single spot days too. Definitely just about there for the minimum. 

2017 and the sun is asleep...Zzzzzz.....wonder what implications this will have for volcanic activity this year and for the following winter.  Haven't had true blocking overall this winter season, except during the Autumn when the AO tanked in October.

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I think this solar minimum is going to be very deep. Probably a lot deeper than the last one. We could easily still be 3 years from the bottom.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I think this solar minimum is going to be very deep. Probably a lot deeper than the last one. We could easily still be 3 years from the bottom.

while the sun spots have been weak the solar wind has been still on the reather high end side of things as solar winds tends to lag a few years after the max.I just wonder those once the solar wind weakens what kind of strong blocking we will see in a few years with the nao and Ao.
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