Jump to content
The Weather Forums

What's Up With The Solar Activity Lately?


Recommended Posts

The mods can feel free to move this thread, but I wanted to at least end up with a link to it here...

 

I was a bit disappointed to see the February monthly sunspot number was 102 which is the highest yet for this cycle.  Looking at past cycles it's very normal for most cycles to have a double peak, but the first peak is almost always higher than the second one.  We are currently in the second peak...at least it appears we are.  It is interesting to note the AP index has been pretty low and is currently only at 4 in spite of sunspot and flux numbers being quite high.

 

Just wondering what some of the people on here that know more about this than me think.  Does anyone have a link to a site which shows historic data for the AP index?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 154
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

The 10.7cm radio flux is the more ideal measurement of overall solar activity levels, especially during solar minimum when sunspots are often unable to form. It picks up phenomena such as prominences,

NASA's Prediction of Solar Cycle 25  

Sunspot number: 0 What is the sunspot number? Updated 05 Jun 2019   Spotless Days Current Stretch: 17 days 2019 total: 91 days (58%)     Solar scientists say we've reached Minimum. Well, zero spot

Posted Images

The mods can feel free to move this thread, but I wanted to at least end up with a link to it here...

 

I was a bit disappointed to see the February monthly sunspot number was 102 which is the highest yet for this cycle. Looking at past cycles it's very normal for most cycles to have a double peak, but the first peak is almost always higher than the second one. We are currently in the second peak...at least it appears we are. It is interesting to note the AP index has been pretty low and is currently only at 4 in spite of sunspot and flux numbers being quite high.

 

Just wondering what some of the people on here that know more about this than me think. Does anyone have a link to a site which shows historic data for the AP index?

Don't worry, it's nothing and the Sun will settle down to the SC24 mean this spring.

 

But is it any coincidence that the strongest solar flux surge in 13 years is coinciding with strong WWB activity, forcing the KW currently over the NPAC? The latest peer reviewed literature would suggest not. :)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't worry, it's nothing and the Sun will settle down to the SC24 mean this spring.

 

But is it any coincidence that the strongest solar flux surge in 13 years is coinciding with strong WWB activity, forcing the KW currently over the NPAC? The latest peer reviewed literature would suggest not. :)

 

 

I'm sure you're right.  I finally managed to find some AP data for the past 20 years and this cycle is shockingly lower than the last one.  Do you have the link for the AP graph that goes back several decades?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I've notice when solar activity is low then cold air seems to go further south.  When we had our Feb snowstorm the sun was active for months and then quieted down considerably just before the snows came then in the middle of it the solar activity picked back up and in came the westerlies.  

 

The sun isn't the only factor to look at but it does make mild weather more likely either thru riding if ocean conditions allow it or screaming westerlies depending on where ridges and lows set up.  The sun can't control placement but it does amplify strength of ridges and troughs.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Still no sign of the sun coming down off of this active period. Kind of disappointing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Still no sign of the sun coming down off of this active period. Kind of disappointing.

That is disappointing. At least it isn't getting any higher, just leveling out. Still WAY below the peak of the last cycle.

 

But yeah, let's hope it starts dropping soon.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Might as well enjoy it, because this may be the last solar max we'll see for 30-50 years. Latest magnetic data continues to suggest a Maunder-like minimum is on the way.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Might as well enjoy it, because this may be the last solar max we'll see for 30-50 years. Latest magnetic data continues to suggest a Maunder-like minimum is on the way.

When do you expect the current maximum to start dropping off?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Might as well enjoy it, because this may be the last solar max we'll see for 30-50 years. Latest magnetic data continues to suggest a Maunder-like minimum is on the way.

 

I pulled all my lawn chairs out, got my SPF 50 sunscreen on, I'm going to ******* enjoy the hell out of it baby!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

When do you expect the current maximum to start dropping off?

In 2-3 years..we're at peak now. The solar cycle will begin to fall off gradually between 2016-2018. The current blip will subside soon, obviously.

 

I think you asked this question in another thread and I replied in a more detailed manner..do you remember which thread that was? I'm too lazy to do it again. :)

Link to post
Share on other sites

As solar activity gradually fades off, expect periods of somewhat enhanced activity going ahead until it finally goes to bed. This is pretty normal to get a little ebb and flow as you go along. Nothing to worry about as has been said.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

In 2-3 years..we're at peak now. The solar cycle will begin to fall off gradually between 2016-2018. The current blip will subside soon, obviously.

 

I think you asked this question in another thread and I replied in a more detailed manner..do you remember which thread that was? I'm too lazy to do it again. :)

Usually things drop off very quickly after the second peak, which I think we are in now.

 

It appears it might be starting to quiet down a bit now. Very interesting how low the AP has been through all of this. Currently at around 6.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 months later...

I doubt my post will even get seen in all the static but I'll give it a try! 

 

I hope we don't have a Carrington Super Flare like 1859 that nearly fried the then new telegraph system and caused some of the telegraph paper to catch fire.   Operators during the event found that the telegraph key would still operate even when disconnected from the battery entirely.

 

  http://www.solarstorms.org/SS1859.html   This link has an archive of ALL our solar flares and recently put old newspaper links into PDF files since the original links for a long time failed and I am glad the updated their site since it has been several YEARS of neglect.

 

During declining phases is usually when the strongest CME's actually happen in between quiet periods. 

 

Unless power crews are alert and can disconnect power supplies safely our infrastructure is at serious risk which people have appealed to the government to harden it to no avail.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I doubt my post will even get seen in all the static but I'll give it a try! 

 

I hope we don't have a Carrington Super Flare like 1859 that nearly fried the then new telegraph system and caused some of the telegraph paper to catch fire.   Operators during the event found that the telegraph key would still operate even when disconnected from the battery entirely.

 

  http://www.solarstorms.org/SS1859.html   This link has an archive of ALL our solar flares and recently put old newspaper links into PDF files since the original links for a long time failed and I am glad the updated their site since it has been several YEARS of neglect.

 

During declining phases is usually when the strongest CME's actually happen in between quiet periods. 

 

Unless power crews are alert and can disconnect power supplies safely our infrastructure is at serious risk which people have appealed to the government to harden it to no avail.

 

 

There is really nothing that could be done to prevent severe damage to the infrastructure if we have an 1859 type event.  Today's youth might actually get a chance to find out what it's like to not spend 10 hours  a day texting. :lol:

 

I'm not sure why you keep writing that you think people won't see your posts.  Every time you say that I see them.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

There is really nothing that could be done to prevent severe damage to the infrastructure if we have an 1859 type event.  Today's youth might actually get a chance to find out what it's like to not spend 10 hours  a day texting. :lol:

 

I'm not sure why you keep writing that you think people won't see your posts.  Every time you say that I see them.

 

I don't get why.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not directly, especially on a year-to-year scale. The sun can affect the EPO/NPAC circulation on longer timescale, though. There's an underlying harmonic which lags the 11yr cycle, most notably.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...

A zero at that stage of the cycle is pretty much unheard of.  Even though it was only totally spotless for one day this kind of supports the predictions for a VERY low cycle coming up.  The AP index continues to be much lower on this cycle than on previous cycles.

 

We will soon see if a solar grand minimum might be able to get our winters on track again.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

We need the Sun to be quiet w/ the -QBO/MQI to achieve ideal blocking this winter. Not as necessary in a +QBO because an NPAC/EPO ridging is naturally favored in that case..

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 months later...

Big nasty sunspot 2192 launched its first x flare since it appeared earthside.  It's the biggest sunspot since sunspot 486 in 2003.  That one produced auroras as far south as Florida.  Here's pictures of each:

 

http://s24.postimg.org/pcmbz0txx/sunspot.gif

 

http://s30.postimg.org/skjvrriup/sunspot_486s.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting to look at the sun right now.  Once that active region rotates off in a couple of days the rest of the sun is nearly spotless.  Very impressive how low the AP is remaining in spite of the high flux and active flares.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

It's now the largest sunspot in nearly 25 years, with mutiple M and X flares.   Like Jim said though, there hasn't been much in the way of other activity.  Solar wind has been light.

 

http://s29.postimg.org/66bt4u67b/sunspot.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 months later...

hey Chris. 

 

.. I don't know much about Solar influences as they're looked at.  

 

So if I could ask, .. What more exactly are we looking at here above. 

 

Like number of "sunspots" per annum. ?

 

You are correct; that is the number of sunspots per year.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Another quick question then if you will.

 

.. Does the sun rotate constantly as viewed from our perspective. ?

Technically, yes, it takes ~ 27 days for the Sun to complete a full rotation. The equatorial portion of Sun rotates the fastest, while the polar regions barely rotate.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Technically, yes, it takes ~ 27 days for the Sun to complete a full rotation. The equatorial portion of Sun rotates the fastest, while the polar regions barely rotate.

 

Per typical. Just "horn" right in here "Phil". (You'll rationalize the idea of course.) If not perhaps getting what I've meant here even. 

 

(?) "zero" thought for any etiquette more deferential. .. Simple preface in front. Rhetoric before any actual form. Main idea furthering whatever. .. "I'm noting that Chris hasn't gotten around to answering this question [that you 've asked] as yet, ... So if I may, here's my appreciation / impression ..."

 

Very well, professor. You may respond to the question, additional, that I had intended to ask Chris, given a more simple (If I may.) response in the affirmative more here.

 

But first, for clarity sake, as as you know certainly, .... where you and I (Being more kind.) try to communicate, more generally certainly leastwise, I .. find myself being (generally) disturbed by and with finding what you've posted, either whether more truncated and slip-shot, or either, more highly involvingwith whatever various more tangential additions that you might choose to include where considering whatever theme, e.g., ... this with also more often than not, and your not having either whether been able to understand something very simple that I might have said or asked, with your apparently having pondered it on an much higher level, your answering a question that I having [even] asked. ...

 

... Let me tell you what I'm seeing here above, in and with what you've provided me as one to the question that I'd posed Chris above, per our exchange. This including .. the different main "confusion" aspects / elements that I'm seeing within it your response above. ... Just to be "extra" clear here.  (O.k. ?)

 

First, the "technically" part, or .. angle. ... In this case and circumstance, i.e. with, and in line with the question that I'd asked (?), .. (And I'm being perfectly sincere here.) ... About as "vague" as possible, an opening to a sentence, more instructive, as I can imagine. ....

 

And then, continuing, ... Looked at together with what you've said otherwise following, at would appear, that you might just have wanted to begin what you have, with something more like "More or less"; this perhaps with your even having worked to have qualified this idea somewhat further. Whatever. The point being here that rather than helping / having helped .. me to clue-in better to what you might be saying (Mine own qualification here.), "More or less" being much better (for me.) than your (otherwise.) in effect more, having shown me more, obscurity, where regarding the idea of my question, than had been there present in and with its having been posed.

 

Here, you try it. .....

 

$ ... Yes, more or less. ..... I]t takes ~ 27 days for the Sun to complete [one] full rotation. The equatorial portion of Sun rotates the fastest, while the polar regions barely rotate.

 

.. The lesser emphasis on the .. "full"er, single .. "rotation", rather than to have helped me see what you'd, had on you mind (apparently.) and had been trying to covey, to me, had also in fact worked to obscure my reading of what your have; ... if to a much lesser extent than ""Technically", "yes". 

 

Ok, so then further, ... And believe it on not (don't.), ... The rest of what you've written following, .. though informative (to some extent. By degrees more general.), .. and softened (?) "somewhat" (?) by the more initial, if more unto itself more obscuring .."Technically, yes", ....

 

.. In point of fact only works to scrabble the idea and focus if more secondary, of my question more basic. 

 

..  "Does the sun rotate constantly ..... as viewed from our perspective."

 

This with the term "from" as I've used it here, fairly easily being able to be appreciated even, as more "relative to". .... [Yes. / No. ?]

 

.. This to say nothing (or next to.) where looking at the idea the you haven't "really" worked at all, to clarify, what goes on more "between" the regions more "polar", set against .. the more equatorial "portion", of the sun. ....

 

So. There "we" have it.  (??) ... "My stipulation, as to your followup response." (?) .. to my question more at this point, in light of a more affirmative response to that of mine above more initial. (Actually the second question that I had asked "Chris".)

 

..... How is the idea of counting the spots, both sides, or full the way around the sun, in fact gone about.

 

This with also and if I may, more directed to "Chris".

 

"Uhm (?), ..  please feel free to chime here also Chris." ..........

---
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...

While it'd be nice to see the cycle end soon for shorter term results in the high latitude circulations, a longer cycle would be more typical entering a grand minima, and would make predictions much easier.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...