westMJim Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 I have been paying attn to this and it's something we have to monitor as to how strong the ridging will try to come back from the south and east. The CFSv2/Euro Weeklies did a bad job for the week of the 7th-15th which will in all likelihood be colder than what they were showing just last week. I firmly believe its the N PAC pattern and the "miss" in the -EPO which was not being advertised back then. I want to wait till we get into later next week before jumping on board towards a major Jan Thaw. There was a big Bearing Sea ridge that formed around Christmas thru the 28th which suggests a big ridge to come fighting back around the 17th-18th for about 3-4 days, but this seems to be a transient period as I don't see a ridge to lock and hold. I think this is a typical CFSv2 feedback problem out in the PAC.thank you 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gfs still has the CO L Strong high in Canada also 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gfs still has the CO L Strong high in Canada alsoHigh over Low working out pretty good at this range...strength and placement will be interesting to track going forward. Nice to see a storm to finally track that should cover a lot of us on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 High over Low working out pretty good at this range...strength and placement will be interesting to track going forward. Nice to see a storm to finally track that should cover a lot of us on here.Looks good! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks good! Right on schedule! Now, we just need this to deliver into a beautiful west/east CO Low.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Right on schedule! Now, we just need this to deliver into a beautiful west/east CO Low....LOT met has a similar idea. Regarding the possible system toward the end of the Euro run, 00z run has it again tonight. 00z 12/29 and 12z 12/29 Euro ensembles also had quite a strong signal for a system for being that far out with multiple members showing decent low pressure centers and a surface low in the ensemble mean. Hopefully if something does develop, the continued -EPO ridging that now is appearing likely prevents a warm cutter. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks like a dramatic rain to snow changeover. That's a classic CO low setup here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Haha, Colorado low, that's funny considering it's filled with high stoners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks like a dramatic rain to snow changeover. That's a classic CO low setup here.I'm not sure why it's initially so warm though, all of the well entrenched cold air just gets up and leaves, it would put up more of a fight than that, which would probably lend to more of mixed precip event over straight snow. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 I'm not sure why it's initially so warm though, all of the well entrenched cold air just gets up and leaves, it would put up more of a fight than that, which would probably lend to more of mixed precip event over straight snow.Both GFS and Euro are showing that. I wonder if it'll correct itself as it gets closer. And that correction may very well include the storm disappearing. Wouldn't be the first time. It is 8 days out after all. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC has the low too but doesn't really join forces with the cold air. But liking the fact that a storm is at least on it 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro showing something in WY/CO @ 192. Once again has cold air going away here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro much different but still has the system. Weaker and further south. Here we go buckle up for a ride! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 You guy doing play-by-play comments on a d9 storm crack me up. It's not worth more than a passing mention at this range. Thus why AFD's usually won't waste more than that AMT of time on it. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Then why even post here then? This place is too discuss potential systems lol 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 You guy doing play-by-play comments on a d9 storm crack me up. It's not worth more than a passing mention at this range. Thus why AFD's usually won't waste more than that AMT of time on it.The reason they don't mention it is because it's outside of their 7-day window. A few forecasters go beyond that but not many. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Hey Tom! What's your thoughts on the 17th to 21st period...hope to do some sledding up north. Wondering if that's the pullback period or still downright frigid. That is for any input! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Hey Tom! What's your thoughts on the 17th to 21st period...hope to do some sledding up north. Wondering if that's the pullback period or still downright frigid. That is for any input!I think the farther north you go your going to be safe from any big thaw. Climo at this time of year is usually when its the coldest anyhow. It could get stormy around this period though so something to keep an eye on. I'll keep you in mind when I dive in deeper later in the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 My goodness, what an active wave train in the N PAC up into the Aleutians/Bearing Sea over the nex 10 days! 12z EPS has 3 significant storms taking almost an identical path straight up from the N/C PAC into the central Bearing Sea. You can't script it better than that and may likely translate to a very active second half of January. GEFS are also indicating a similar look. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 OAX is very excited about the long term obviously. They put awesome effort into the long term AFD. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017The extended period looks cold and dry with highs in the teens.However, there is hope on the horizon with highs back into the mid20s to lower 30s by next Saturday. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 My highs for next week just keep getting colder and colder and colder. There is a good chance that my highs could remain below zero much of the day and lows approaching all time record cold, which could be in the -20s. For sure -10s. Real feel if there is wind could be dangerously cold. This coldwave could surpass 13-14' cold. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks like a boring gfs run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Not going above freezing anytime soon. Wow. Here is a record likely to be broken for Detroit........ Per NOAA:With increased confidence regarding sub-20degree temperatures on Wednesday, Detroit will have a shot atbreaking the record for number of consecutive days where maxtemperature achieved on 02/02/1936 and again on 02/18/1979. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 This cold us reminiscent of the late 70's but unfortunately we had tons more snow back then. Maybe things will change but not looking good as of now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS/GEM both with a cutter Hits WI/IA/MN pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Not much snow with it but a good start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Rainer down this way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Rainer down this way?Nah both are good for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Wow GFS / CMC sure look pretty good for Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin folks here. Let's keep an eye on it. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Wow GFS / CMC sure look pretty good for Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin folks here. Let's keep an eye on it.If the euro is still showing I’m liking the chances of some sort of trough moving through! Hopefully we get lucky with a share the wealth storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro has a weaker storm for here but colder temps so it evens out here. May be even better cuz it would add onto our current snowpack instead of the current snowpack melting first. Okay, maybe I'm speaking too soon. Now it's showing as an Ozark special. I'll keep editing this post as the run continues. At hour 198, the snow literally splits and goes AROUND my county both to my North and my South. That's actually hilarious. I'm done watching, but I'll say it's better to be North of the bullseye of a potential system this far out than on the bullseye. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Boo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro has a weaker storm for here but colder temps so it evens out here. May be even better cuz it would add onto our current snowpack instead of the current snowpack melting first. Okay, maybe I'm speaking too soon. Now it's showing as an Ozark special. I'll keep editing this post as the run continues. At hour 198, the snow literally splits and goes AROUND my county both to my North and my South. That's actually hilarious. I'm done watching, but I'll say it's better to be North of the bullseye of a potential system this far out than on the bullseye.why are you getting caught up in specifics this far out? Just be thankfull the storm is still there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 In other news; it's -2 and i'm seeing some very light snow, it's amazing seeing the low level clouds zipping by with the moon shining through! The next couple of days could bring temps around here that we haven't seen in quiet some time. Lows below zero would be the first one I can remember. Although I do recall the outbreak of Jan. 1996 that brought about a 40 degree temp drop in like 3 hours. I think the next day we experienced below zero highs. Regardless, we will have a cold start to the new year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 why are you getting caught up in specifics this far out? Just be thankfull the storm is still thereI'm not. Just mentioning every model trend. That's literally why I said it's better to appear screwed by a potential storm this far out than cash in. If I got excited by being in a 20" bullseye 8 days out, then I'd be an idiot. Besides, why are you of all people telling me to be thankful? 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 In other news; it's -2 and i'm seeing some very light snow, it's amazing seeing the low level clouds zipping by with the moon shining through! The next couple of days could bring temps around here that we haven't seen in quiet some time. Lows below zero would be the first one I can remember. Although I do recall the outbreak of Jan. 1996 that brought about a 40 degree temp drop in like 3 hours. I think the next day we experienced below zero highs. Regardless, we will have a cold start to the new year! Stay warm my friend! Even though we are not getting as cold as you guys out there, we still may break or tie a record low tonight and a record low high for tomorrow. The prolong stretch of this cold is something else. I just had this feeling back in Oct when those strong early Autumn HP's centered themselves over the Plains you guys would be experiencing some frigid air this winter. Happy New Year bud! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 IF the GEFS Strat forecats are correct, along with the N PAC pattern over the next 2 weeks, this month may end up significantly colder than expected. The forecasted behavior in the models of the Polar Vortex reminds me vividly of what we saw in Jan '14. Models keep trending colder in the extended and we are also seeing high lat blocking which is a bonus element into the pattern going forward. The CFSv2 weeklies may be beginning to trend colder for Week 3-4 as the model is suggesting a warm PDO/warm ring of waters in the N PAC. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171231.201801.gif Here is the last run for Jan... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20171231.201801.gif See the trends...warm temps along the west coast up into NW NAMER...I recall seeing the same flips in the model for Jan '14... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201801.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Stay warm my friend! Even though we are not getting as cold as you guys out there, we still may break or tie a record low tonight and a record low high for tomorrow. The prolong stretch of this cold is something else. I just had this feeling back in Oct when those strong early Autumn HP's centered themselves over the Plains you guys would be experiencing some frigid air this winter. Happy New Year bud!Thanks man, happy new year to you too! Thanks for all you do Tom, I always look forward to reading your posts, you do an awesome job! Which by the way, where you ever going to major in Weather or is it just a side passion?? I started off majoring in it but the math was too hard for me..... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Thanks man, happy new year to you too! Thanks for all you do Tom, I always look forward to reading your posts, you do an awesome job! Which by the way, where you ever going to major in Weather or is it just a side passion?? I started off majoring in it but the math was too hard for me.....I appreciate that! Years ago, when I was just a kid, watching Tom Skilling on WGN and also TWC, the weather became a fascination to me. It was not until 4 or 5 years ago where I became very curious of the climate and how it all works together. Until recently, I became overwhelmed by the majesty of the weather and climate around the globe and how it impacts our lives. My intentions are to work on some peculiar plans in this field in the years to come, but first, I need to finish getting our companies project off the ground and running in 2018 as we anticipate to come out of the gates roaring. At least, that is the plan... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 I appreciate that! Years ago, when I was just a kid, watching Tom Skilling on WGN and also TWC, the weather became a fascination to me. It was not until 4 or 5 years ago where I became very curious of the climate and how it all works together. Until recently, I became overwhelmed by the majesty of the weather and climate around the globe and how it impacts our lives. My intentions are to work on some peculiar plans in this field in the years to come, but first, I need to finish getting our companies project off the ground and running in 2018 as we anticipate to come out of the gates roaring. At least, that is the plan...Well good luck to you and keep the posts coming!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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