January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[westMJim]

This morning there is a rather big temperature difference across the Grand Rapids metro area. At 9 AM the reading at the airport was +8° while here at my house it is +17° and to my NW at Muskegon it is +18° There is some blue sky to the NW so there is a chance that I will see some sun today. I had light snow overnight and the drive way has a new covering but not much and as GRR has been reporting light snow for the past several house that means Grand Rapids now has had snow fall for 13 days in a row now. As of yesterday morning the seasonal snow fall at GRR is now at 34.0” The airport has 7” on the ground and here at my house I have 10.5” on the ground.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 2nd    At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average h/l for today is 32/19

The record high is 59° set in 2004 the coldest maximum is +8 set in 1920

The record low is a mild -2° set in 2001 the warmest minimum is 52 set in 1897

The record snow fall is 6.4” in 1999

The most on the ground is 12” in 2001

Last year the High was 42° and the low was 24° there was 0.41” of rain fall and no snow on the ground.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro has us with all rain on Sunday, GFS has us with rain changing to snow. If there's one thing that GFS has been better at than Euro this year, it's temperatures. I am more inclined to think that we get rain changing to snow Sunday as Euro is cuckoo for cocoa puffs with the pullback.

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids record low was -14 set in 1974. It was -22 last hour.

 

The -14 record was January 1st.  Today's record was -19.  It's three straight new records for CR.  Here in the city, the temp was about three degrees less cold than yesterday morning.

[Tom]

12z NAM showing that mid week clipper Wed/Wed pm across C IA with a couple inches of snow...centering across DSM...

[dubuque473]

I think we only got down to -14....

[Minny_Weather]

Latest HRRR has a thin band thru the entire state of Iowa today. Drops over an inch where it's heaviest.

[Tom]

Cedar Rapids record low was -14 set in 1974. It was -22 last hour.

My goodness!  That's gonna leave a mark....

 

 

Some long range thoughts...we have seen this before in late Oct/Nov/Dec, centering the dates around the 17th/18th, when the PAC jet targeted the PAC NW, as I'm seeing it evolving again in the models when a break in the pattern transpired.  The 30-day harmonic is showing itself again, behaving somewhat differently each month due to seasonal differences and/or blocking.

 

Check out the 00z GEFS jet forecast fade away from the Split Flow in the E PAC, to a more zonal flow which is anticipated to begin around the 17th.  Can this pattern favor wintry systems???  AN temps???

[Niko]

Partly cloudy and a balmy temp of 9F. Much colder air arriving by midweek.

[Niko]

About as accurate as the maps have been in our area. 

I think FL accumulations are overdone, but S. Carolina northward looks more promising. Dont forget, Arctic High Pressure is in place.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS went back to slowing down the southern energy and speeding up the northern energy, so again it's just a front sweeping through with a slug of moisture lifting northeast to the east of Iowa.

[Iowawx]

I know it's still a bit far out, but I am not really feeling too good about this system. It could still change but I'm not sure it's worth getting excited about. 

[Tom]

12z GFS phases both streams, but to far to the east...known bias at play???

[East Dubzz]

Interesting.... may pick up another half inch or so tonight? HRRR shows .05” QPF, and I’d assume the ratios have to be pretty decent with that.

[Niko]

Ice on the increase......

 

http://woodtv.com/blog/2018/01/02/great-lakes-ice-increasing-relatively-rapidly/

[jaster220]

It’s crazy to think it’s already -5F with only a couple inches of snow OTG. The magnitude of this cold is impressive to say the least. Normally, you would need somewhere on the order of 6-10” of snow at the bare min to get temps this cold. Not this year.

 

And with that 6" OTG, these were the numbers for the end of December arctic wave at my place..very impressive for the "insulated Mitten" 

 

 

12/26 (-9*F), 12/27 (-13*F), 12/28 (-13*F), 12/30 (-12*F), 12/31 (-17*F)

 

The -17º at least tied the all-time coldest December temp for Marshall

[Niko]

Clouds on the increase ahead of this weak clipper type system approaching. Snowshowers tomorrow w no accumulations.

[gosaints]

 

YUK

[St Paul Storm]

^ that’s not good for anyone. Talk of ‘turning the corner’ is going to turn back into complaining real soon. There isn’t much to get excited about anytime soon.

[Tom]

^ that’s not good for anyone. Talk of ‘turning the corner’ is going to turn back into complaining real soon. There isn’t much to get excited about anytime soon.

Too early to make that judgement call, and remember, not everyone will benefit from the next system and the one on it’s heels. I stand by that call and will ride it till the end.

[Stacsh]

Muskegon, just north of my loc,  has reported 51.7" of snow in December.  Much different than 13/14 when most of the LE blew over our head.  Another foot possible by Thursday evening.  I wish I could distribute the snow to others here.  

[jaster220]

Too early to make that judgement call, and remember, not everyone will benefit from the next system and the one on it’s heels. I stand by that call and will ride it till the end.

 

Agreed, but it's obvious when looking at the CPC Hazards map(s) that this pattern is having a horrible time combining moisture and the abundant cold. CPC shows heavy precip, surrounded by below normal cold, but separated by (1) day = no hvy snow hit. I've not caught one map of theirs that had the Hvy SN outline anywhere in our sub, tho due to last-minute trends, they missed the biggest Clipper last month that raked LP of Mich. I, like everyone here, wants to give things time to happen, but synoptically speaking it's been challenging to say the least. I'm the most fortunate one cashing in chips via the LES, but a decent S stream system would go a long way for all concerned, you included ofc   

 

Edit: I meant Hvy Snow outside the LES belts.

[jaster220]

Muskegon, just north of my loc,  has reported 51.7" of snow in December.  Much different than 13/14 when most of the LE blew over our head.  Another foot possible by Thursday evening.  I wish I could distribute the snow to others here.  

 

Yep, the lakeshore's finally cashing in bigly! West of Kzoo looks to have gotten 3-4X what I recieved inland at home since last Friday's WWA began. Easily 15+ OTG in the favored belt communities driving into work this morn.

[St Paul Storm]

Too early to make that judgement call, and remember, not everyone will benefit from the next system and the one on it’s heels. I stand by that call and will ride it till the end.

Tom, that’s totally fair and I respect your calls buddy. Tough to get good snows up this way though with cold air in place and a decent snowpack to the south. Things tend to dry out here in the dead of winter, so the fact that this winter has been pretty uneventful so far is somewhat concerning. Just my 2 cents. This stubborn pattern is not good.

[Tom]

Tom, that’s totally fair and I respect your calls buddy. Tough to get good snows up this way though with cold air in place and a decent snowpack to the south. Things tend to dry out here in the dead of winter, so the fact that this winter has been pretty uneventful so far is somewhat concerning. Just my 2 cents. This stubborn pattern is not good.

Oh ya, I totally agree with you, it has been uneventful, and regarding the drying trend, it seasonally does get drier as you get deeper into winter except for maybe clippers but southern stream storms will be hard to come until late winter/Spring.

[Tony]

00z Euro with widespread 3-5" totals across N MO/IL/IN and into MI...looks like it tries phasing as it tracks towards the GL's and taking on a neg tilt.  These finer details will be something to iron out this week.  Both the GFS/EURO are now trending towards more blocking with a -AO/-NAO in tandem.  Could we have turned a corner with a sustained -AO in a -QBO winter???

It sure would be a nice refresher but not going to hold my breath on this one and the one thing I just can't buy are these areas getting any sort of rain out of this storm. If anything, I believe in more of a "miss" than anything else but just don't buy the rain deal at all.

[jaster220]

IWX early am AFD (GRR's dude didn't even mention the potential system  , tho WDM did in the synopsis )

 

More distant concerns arrive early next week as some warmer air

tries to interact with the cold conditions and some upper level
energy. All of the Canadian, GFS and EC models have a distinct
signal about Monday, although the GFS is warmer. For now, have
kept all precipitation snow. Experimental WPC graphics suggest
snow accumulation over most of the area. It does look like there
is an increasing chance for wintry weather issues early next week.

[Tom]

It sure would be a nice refresher but not going to hold my breath on this one and the one thing I just can't buy are these areas getting any sort of rain out of this storm. If anything, I believe in more of a "miss" than anything else but just don't buy the rain deal at all.

There is GEFS support for at least a couple inches from this one. It’s been pretty steady and so have been the EPS members around our region. The good thing is there is some blocking around which could help us phase this storm a little quicker.

[Niko]

Almost a CAT2 storm forecasted to go up the Eastern Seaboard, WOW. Not sure how close it gets to the coastline.

[Niko]

As far as the system for late week, to early for any calls. Best bet will be by Late Fri into early Sat.

[Iowawx]

Made it above zero here today at 1:00PM for the first time since 6:00AM on December 30, 2017. Likely will get a half inch or so of snow tonight according to models. 

[dubuque473]

Made it above zero here today at 1:00PM for the first time since 6:00AM on December 30, 2017. Likely will get a half inch or so of snow tonight according to models. 

 

One thing I like is being able to use a leaf blower on the snowfalls so far!

[St Paul Storm]

I know the year is only 2 days old, but this may hold as one of the best quotes of the rest of the year from MPX this morning:

 

‘Looking ahead, since there are no starting and stopping points in a

planet that has no corners, it is very difficult to determine cause

and effects of specific weather systems.’

[hlcater]

Tasty. Lets remove the 0 from that FH and make it even better.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010212/240/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

[jaster220]

There is GEFS support for at least a couple inches from this one. It’s been pretty steady and so have been the EPS members around our region. The good thing is there is some blocking around which could help us phase this storm a little quicker.

 

12z GEM really has the best look wrt focusing on the S Stream Shortwave. Would agree that the 12z GFS pushes that N wave too fast. EC looks like it marries the two, but as you said, kinda late to be exciting for us. GEM track looks pretty good from this range, let's hope it's getting some good clues..It's almost keeping me all snow, tho via the snowfall output, apparently mixes enough to cut down totals. This happened in the last decent S stream storm last December (2016), and with the final storm early March of 2016, so it could certainly again go that way. 

 

[Madtown]

[FV-Mike]

LOT afternoon update.

 

The weather system is a challenging one as it is actually more
two systems at work. A lead system Saturday night into Sunday
crossing the Upper Great Lakes will steer moisture northward,
while a more southern system will be responsible for the focused
lift/warm advection aloft over the area going into Sunday. This
type of evolution, especially five-six days out in this pattern,
lends to lower than normal confidence. Despite that, global
deterministic models and the 12Z GEFS solution have slightly
closed in on the idea that some synoptic-driven accumulating snow
is probable in the region, with a wide envelope of a few tenths to
several (3+) inches. The 12Z EC actually trended less phased with
the two systems and further south with the primary system. It
just highlights the run-to-run variability that will very likely
continue for a couple more days.

The forecast pattern for week two and the CPC forecast points
toward higher confidence in below normal temperatures during that
period.
 

[FV-Mike]

IWX update

 

Strong wrn ridge flattening sw trough
through the wrn US this weekend handled similarly in 12Z operational
solutions albeit with little run continuity and lackluster ensemble
support. General trend/look is for a more open/progressive solution
aloft tracking ewd across the lakes/OH valley Sun-Mon and more of a
snow event here locally outside more vigorous sfc frontal wave
development although srn zones could warm enough aloft for an icing
threat. Stay tuned.
 

[NEJeremy]

^ that’s not good for anyone. Talk of ‘turning the corner’ is going to turn back into complaining real soon. There isn’t much to get excited about anytime soon.

I agree. The talk and model trends several days ago was the potential to have a couple of big systems this weekend and then a few days after that, including a CO low or bowling ball system that would be a share the wealth storm. Unfortunately as has been the trend this winter mother nature says otherwise and big systems(6+") have been hard to come by. I'm not holding out much hope for this weekend, but that next one 10 days out on the Euro today.....  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The -14 record was January 1st. Today's record was -19. It's three straight new records for CR. Here in the city, the temp was about three degrees less cold than yesterday morning.

Impressive. How far back do records go.