January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Jaycee]

To be honest, I've somewhat given up on this being a good month lol NW flow is too dominant and I think it'll be that way for awhile. I'll be here when there is a storm to track but for now, if this is how it's going to be, then bring on the warm weather.

[Niko]

Thankfully NO!!  SWMI is one of the few places to rival New England's expected haul during the next 72 hrs 

Tbh, I am not buying those incredible amounts of snowfall on that model. Maybe a glitch going on.   

[Niko]

Still some light snow falling. Looks very nice out there, looking from my home-office window. Temp is a frigid 9F.

[Minny_Weather]

Some of the EPS members are cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs on he possibility of an end of the run system.

[gosaints]

Picked up an inch last night.  More than the weekend turd will throw down.

[Jaycee]

Some of the EPS members are cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs on he possibility of an end of the run system.

 

Can you post pics or link me? I always forget the EURO link that's free.

 

 

Also, if you guys wanna know something funny, it's possible yet that Chorpus Christi, TX ​​and ​now ​parts of Florida and Georgia might end up with more snow than us through this winter. I mean, you don't get a bigger slap in the face than that lol like come on. I almost took a vacation to Orlando this week too, soooo glad I didn't.

[Niko]

Can you post pics or link me? I always forget the EURO link that's free.

 

 

Also, if you guys wanna know something funny, it's possible yet that Chorpus Christi, TX ​​and ​now ​parts of Florida and Georgia might end up with more snow than us through this winter. I mean, you don't get a bigger slap in the face than that lol like come on. I almost took a vacation to Orlando this week too, soooo glad I didn't.

Crazy stuff, indeed. Ma Nature can really make you nuts.

 

FWIW: Gainsville, FL this morning was experiencing some very light snow.

[bud2380]

The Canadian keeps things interesting throughout the extended.  Unfortunately, it's the Canadian.  

[NEJeremy]

[jaster220]

Can you post pics or link me? I always forget the EURO link that's free.

 

 

Also, if you guys wanna know something funny, it's possible yet that Chorpus Christi, TX ​​and ​now ​parts of Florida and Georgia might end up with more snow than us through this winter. I mean, you don't get a bigger slap in the face than that lol like come on. I almost took a vacation to Orlando this week too, soooo glad I didn't.

 

Just remember this next fall when every blog and amateur forecast says again we’re all going to have the winter of our lifetime. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a below normal forecast on the internet come out from any snow lover’s forecast/blog. Funny how often the CPC’s winter forecast ends up being pretty accurate in the end. We’re all just snow weenies I guess!

 

1. Winter's not over

2. There's always spring..

[jaster220]

Tomorrow should be an interesting day..

 

[Niko]

Man, we just need a big "Bombogenesis" to occur and cover a big chunk of, lets say, our NE peeps, IA, KS and others who are suffering from the snow dept and I think that will ease up  ya'll frustrations down a bit. Hopefully, next week pans out for ya guys.

[Niko]

Tomorrow should be an interesting day..

 

20180103 KBEH WWA icons.PNG

Dang boy... .looking good there. How much are we talking.......I am thinking about a foot or so.

[jaster220]

Dang boy... .looking good there. How much are we talking.......I am thinking about a foot or so.

 

Per (NOAA)..GRR

 

Tonight our clipper low merges with a very powerful Nor-Easter and

that will result in two days of north winds and arctic air. This

will mean persistent lake effect snow bands near US-31 with the

Big and Little Sable points and extreme western Van Buren and

Allegan Counties getting the heaviest snowfall. Those areas could

see 2 feet of snow by Friday.

 

Beyond that a southern stream system tries to move into the area

late in the weekend or by early next week. That will bring an end

to this unusually cold weather but may mean a snow storm. That

will have to be watched.

 

Even included one of  your fave sayings in their last setence 

[Niko]

Per (NOAA)..GRR

 

 

Even included one of  your fave sayings in their last setence 

 

Get those shovels or snow-thrower ready.

[Minny_Weather]

1. Winter's not over

2. There's always spring..

Spring is severe weather season here. Plus snow melts instantly anyway.

[Tony]

The Canadian keeps things interesting throughout the extended.  Unfortunately, it's the Canadian.  

GFS has been playing catch-up most of the winter season so would rely more on CMC which is not much better 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS has been playing catch-up most of the winter season so would rely more on CMC which is not much better 

Yeah honestly GFS has been the worst model this season. That factors in the Ukie too.

[Tony]

Yeah honestly GFS has been the worst model this season. That factors in the Ukie too.

It did not even pick up on this clipper that just went through. I understand it's not a his res model but Euro had this all the way.

[Jaycee]

1. Winter's not over

2. There's always spring..

 

I know it's not my man, but it feels like it hasn't started. Feels like that the past decade for the most part. I don't want to go down the road of us complaining, you guys know the story by now. It's hard for me personally to find excitement in anything outside of 120 hrs out. We're talking 384hrs + when we say "it's not over" ya know? 2 weeks to wait for a potential change, like how can anyone find excitement with that?

 

I live for Spring and severe weather as well. I don't think there is anything quite like waking up to a moderate risk for our area. The adrenaline rush from severe weather is untouchable, especially out here. The sad thing is, this forum dies when spring/summer comes around. No one really seems to care about it except for a handful. Heck, there's not even a storm for most of us right now and yet there's 22 people reading this thread as we speak-- that is like 6 times higher than any thread I've seen from May through August. So it's tough my dude. I wish severe weather would gain as much traction but it never seems to

 

 

EDIT: maybe i'll just move to Michigan

[jaster220]

GFS has been playing catch-up most of the winter season so would rely more on CMC which is not much better 

 

Yeah honestly GFS has been the worst model this season. That factors in the Ukie too.

 

12z GEM actually looks like it's trying to make a legit storm outta Sun/Monday wave. I mean, not WSWarning level stuff, but has a much better look for our area than what the GFS has been smoking lately..

 

[Tony]

12z GEM actually looks like it's trying to make a legit storm outta Sun/Monday wave. I mean, not WSWarning level stuff, but has a much better look for our area than what the GFS has been smoking lately..

 

20180103 12z 114hr GEM Surface.png

Has a much colder look to it which I believe is the correct way to look at this storm. GFS has been way to warm with this and is now starting to catch-up "again" to the colder look.

[jaster220]

I know it's not my man, but it feels like it hasn't started. Feels like that the past decade for the most part. I don't want to go down the road of us complaining, you guys know the story by now. It's hard for me personally to find excitement in anything outside of 120 hrs out. We're talking 384hrs + when we say "it's not over" ya know? 2 weeks to wait for a potential change, like how can anyone find excitement with that?

 

I live for Spring and severe weather as well. I don't think there is anything quite like waking up to a moderate risk for our area. The adrenaline rush from severe weather is untouchable, especially out here. The sad thing is, this forum dies when spring/summer comes around. No one really seems to care about it except for a handful. Heck, there's not even a storm for most of us right now and yet there's 22 people reading this thread as we speak-- that is like 6 times higher than any thread I've seen from May through August. So it's tough my dude. I wish severe weather would gain as much traction but it never seems to

 

 

EDIT: maybe i'll just move to Michigan

 

#Michiganrockswinter

 

But, this is where PDS Tor watches go to die, so you don't wanna be here for Severe season. One reason I don't even get into that any more. Like snow there, severe avoids SMI like the plague! Just look at last year's official NWS map of severe warnings..Michigan is like an island unto itself for the total lack of warned events. Lost count of how many times we were forecasted to get simple T-storms and nada! Nope, come to the snow belts of Michigan for a winterlude, then scurry back to your place for the spring! 

[Niko]

I know it's not my man, but it feels like it hasn't started. Feels like that the past decade for the most part. I don't want to go down the road of us complaining, you guys know the story by now. It's hard for me personally to find excitement in anything outside of 120 hrs out. We're talking 384hrs + when we say "it's not over" ya know? 2 weeks to wait for a potential change, like how can anyone find excitement with that?

 

I live for Spring and severe weather as well. I don't think there is anything quite like waking up to a moderate risk for our area. The adrenaline rush from severe weather is untouchable, especially out here. The sad thing is, this forum dies when spring/summer comes around. No one really seems to care about it except for a handful. Heck, there's not even a storm for most of us right now and yet there's 22 people reading this thread as we speak-- that is like 6 times higher than any thread I've seen from May through August. So it's tough my dude. I wish severe weather would gain as much traction but it never seems to

 

 

EDIT: maybe i'll just move to Michigan

That might be a start bud....something to think about.

 

But...I think you have better severe weather than us MI peeps here.

[Niko]

12z GEM actually looks like it's trying to make a legit storm outta Sun/Monday wave. I mean, not WSWarning level stuff, but has a much better look for our area than what the GFS has been smoking lately..

 

20180103 12z 114hr GEM Surface.png

The way SEMI has been going w all these advisories so far this Winter, Ya neva know.

[jaster220]

These two waves on the GEM need to merge into one big MONSTA! 

 

[jaster220]

The way SEMI has been going w all these advisories so far this Winter, Ya neva know.

 

Psst...I was addressing our friend from Chicago...NOT Detroit. As Tom might say, don't get greedy! 

[Niko]

Psst...I was addressing our friend from Chicago...NOT Detroit. As Tom might say, don't get greedy! 

......Ok, I will settle for WWA instead.   

[Niko]

These two waves on the GEM need to merge into one big MONSTA! 

 

20180103 12z 228hr GEM Surface.png

That looks sweet. Interesting!

[Tony]

......Ok, I will settle for WWA instead. 

We are due for something of substance but we would settle for WWA as well.

[Hawkeye]

12z euro has accumulating snow beginning in southeast iowa and fanning out to the ne/e/se.

[BrianJK]

Can you post pics or link me? I always forget the EURO link that's free.

 

 

Also, if you guys wanna know something funny, it's possible yet that Chorpus Christi, TX ​​and ​now ​parts of Florida and Georgia might end up with more snow than us through this winter. I mean, you don't get a bigger slap in the face than that lol like come on. I almost took a vacation to Orlando this week too, soooo glad I didn't.

 

Don't worry - I'm  sure there's something looming "right around the corner"  heh

[Andrew NE]

Northern stream is much more dominant on the 12z Euro.

[Minny_Weather]

Don't worry - I'm sure there's something looming "right around the corner" heh

NE will get a nice storm. In March with 60s the day after.

[bud2380]

If the Euro would phase together just a tad sooner, it could be a nice storm this weekend.  As it is, some areas are still looking like they will get a nice hit on this run.  

[GDR]

Map??

[bud2380]

I can only provide this crappy map from weather.us.  it looks like it displays the snow in terms of QPF so you would need to use your imagination on ratios to see projected snow, but there is a blotch of .4-.6" qpf in west central Illinois.  

 

[westMJim]

The snow has all but stopped here at my house (still a few flurries) I have cleared the driveway and pulled the snow off the edge of the roof, I have 5" of new snow and now have 14" on the ground.

[jaster220]

The way it's been snowing here at work, I kinda saw this coming 

 

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

MIZ077-078-040900-
/O.UPG.KIWX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180105T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0001.180103T1951Z-180106T0000Z/
Berrien-Cass MI-
Including the cities of Niles, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph,
Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac,
Cassopolis, and Marcellus
251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible, including during the morning and
evening commutes on Thursday. Additional snow accumulations of
12 to 16 inches, with localized amounts up to 20 inches, are
expected.

* WHERE...Berrien and Cass MI Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means
significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

[jaster220]

..and that's up to 20" on top of this report

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
229 PM EST WED JAN 3 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SNOW 1 S SAINT JOSEPH 42.09N 86.49W
01/03/2018 M4.5 INCH BERRIEN MI PUBLIC

NEW SNOW SINCE 6:00 AM EST.


&&