January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

GFS vs Euro...1-3"...maybe???

 

[Iowawx]

GFS vs Euro...1-3"...maybe???

 

Are you seeing the signs of a large warm up mid month? TWC forecast has my area getting to the low 40's which would easily melt a lot of our snowpack.

[Tom]

Are you seeing the signs of a large warm up mid month? TWC forecast has my area getting to the low 40's which would easily melt a lot of our snowpack.

Yup, I see moderation after the 15th or so...how long it lasts are the questions I have.

[Niko]

My area might crack the freezing mark by end of next week. Yayeee!!!!

 

 

Btw: I think a snowsquall passed on by at some point late last night because my subdivision street is a mess.

[Tony]

The Gem has been consistently showing snow for this weekend and has not budged from its track and somewhat intensity. It's been doing fairly well lately so hope it can score one with this weekends setup.

[St Paul Storm]

I’m cautiously excited about what the models are showing in terms of moderating temps in the coming weeks. This current icebox isn’t good for storm development, especially up here. I’ll gladly worry about thermals if it means a storm or two will cut up this way. When my leafblower gets more action than my snowblower, that’s not good.

[Tom]

12z GFS still flashing that storm next week and has a better wound up look to it which turns into a GL’s cutter. Better potential with this one.

[Iowawx]

If I seriously can't get more than 18 inches of snow for a total this winter, then winters are getting worse over time. Last years total in Cedar Rapids was a dismal 18 inches of snow.

[gosaints]

Off topic again.  

 

Chunks of sea ice flying in the northeast storm.

 

Tough to poo poo that

[jaster220]

I’m not seeing it with this one, models are not suggesting any good trends in phasing and basically taking the southern energy farther south. I think the monster EC storm is throwing a wrench in this one. I’d be happy to score 2”, believe me, but it’s gonna take a shift in track to do so.

 

GFS vs Euro...1-3"...maybe???

 

 

The storm was always too close on the heals of that bombastic storm. It'd be extremely strange for it to warm-up and rain over the area (any area) that just got the Defo-band of such a powerhouse system just 2 days after. We're (Lwr Lakes) the champs at that nonsense, and the Jan '14 fiasco still gave us 4 solid days of cold after the PV bliz moved out. Due to maps and time stamp snapshots, I didn't realize the close proximity of the EC storm ending Friday and our hoped for storm begining Sunday, or I would've had immediate doubts. Nonetheless, I'd take a more moist couple of inches if that's where this ends up. 

[hlcater]

12z GFS still flashing that storm next week and has a better wound up look to it which turns into a GL’s cutter. Better potential with this one.

It looks that way and starts to cut, then kinda gets shoved straight east near Hannibal MO. Kind of an odd track. Then continues NE over CHI. Massive unrealistic precip shield too. However both models have a pretty significant storm so maybe this one has legs?

[Minny_Weather]

It looks that way and starts to cut, then kinda gets shoved straight east near Hannibal MO. Kind of an odd track. Then continues NE over CHI. Massive unrealistic precip shield too. However both models have a pretty significant storm so maybe this one has legs?

I'm giving it till 12z Saturday till I start treating it like it has meaning. When both models have showed BS storms this season, they crapped out about 6 days out. Therefore, Saturday is the magic day for me. If it's there then, I'll start giving it respect.

[Niko]

Still plenty of time to track the weekend system. Models will change. They always do. Most are clueless if the atmosphere is acting a little strange. Give it till Saturday!

[Niko]

My temps are actually dropping, instead of rising. That goes to show ya how intense this arctic airmass is.

[Niko]

The storm was always too close on the heals of that bombastic storm. It'd be extremely strange for it to warm-up and rain over the area (any area) that just got the Defo-band of such a powerhouse system just 2 days after. We're (Lwr Lakes) the champs at that nonsense, and the Jan '14 fiasco still gave us 4 solid days of cold after the PV bliz moved out. Due to maps and time stamp snapshots, I didn't realize the close proximity of the EC storm ending Friday and our hoped for storm begining Sunday, or I would've had immediate doubts. Nonetheless, I'd take a more moist couple of inches if that's where this ends up. 

I'll take 2-4inch snowfall from the weekend system. Cant be "Greedy" here!

[Tom]

I'm giving it till 12z Saturday till I start treating it like it has meaning. When both models have showed BS storms this season, they crapped out about 6 days out. Therefore, Saturday is the magic day for me. If it's there then, I'll start giving it respect.

I would have to agree. There is ensemble support for a decent storm but I would like to see it continue trends through the weekend before jumping all in.

[Niko]

Just been informed by friends and family from NYC and surrounding 5 boroughs regarding snowfall amounts. Queens, NY has over a foot w whiteout conditions now for nearly more than 3 hours. The city itself has over half a foot. Snowing very hard. Brooklyn has been near the 14" mark. I will try and get some pics from them and post on here. Bronx has 8". S.I roads are impassable.

 

PER TWC:  For the NYC Metro area and the 5 boroughs.

 

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT... OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES OCCURRING IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PLAN ON DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES IS POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

[jaster220]

Not to derail the EC action thd, but I just found this map that apparently GRR posted earlier in the week showing what a snowy holiday week it was (mostly for those in the true LES belts). I post it to say that these maps via whatever means they are generated (obs, ASOS, radar estimates, SWAG's??) have come a long, long ways toward painting an accurate picture. I added the little "red dot" you see north of COLDWATER for Marshall, and they showed us right on the line of the 12-18" color contour. Well, guess how much I measured over those (8) days at mby? 12.1" exactly, so that's really impressive if you ask me, which you ofc didn't, so any ways, there it is fwiw. Have full confidence in your local NWS office to get the snow totals correct......after it has fallen! 

 

 

 

 

[bud2380]

i'd be interested to see how many times the GFS showed a major storm in the midwest in the 6-10 day time period since Thanksgiving.  I can only think of 1 that has turned out to be anything significant.  Take this weekends "event".  It wasn't long ago the GFS and even the Euro were showing a significant storm. Now it's looking very weak and disorganized and warm.  If we get to 72-96 hours and we still see a storm on the models, then maybe we can feel decent about something materializing.  It must be something with this pattern, because in years past models would frequently show a storm several days out and usually at least somebody would get something.  I remember one year the GFS had an hour 384 fantasy storm, and it showed it for days on end run after run, with only occasionally seeing it go away on a random run.  It ended up being a significant storm, so it CAN happen for a model to pickup on storms in the extended, they just haven't done a good job this winter.  

[Niko]

So far the weekend system shows a couple of inches for MBY. I am expecting a lot of changes within that timeframe.

[bud2380]

at hour 144 the Euro is pumping in major warmth at the 850mb level.  > 5 degrees all the way to the Canadian border in North Dakota.  Up to 15 degrees in Nebraska.  SLP in SE Montana.  

[GDR]

If it’s not snowing pump up the temps please

[bud2380]

then at hour 168 the low is teleported to the TX Panhandle.  Not saying it won't happen, but seems suspicious.  

[bud2380]

850s crashing on the backside as well.  Same places that had +15 850s in NE at hour 144 have -15 850s at hour 168.  

[gosaints]

Run of the mill storm in boston!  Holy flooding

[St Paul Storm]

at hour 144 the Euro is pumping in major warmth at the 850mb level.  > 5 degrees all the way to the Canadian border in North Dakota.  Up to 15 degrees in Nebraska.  SLP in SE Montana.

 

Fuel for the fire. Temps crash again afterwards.

[bud2380]

For some reason there is only a 90% chance of snow in Boston, despite 13-19" in the forecast.  Hmmmm...

 

This Afternoon

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Windy, with a north wind around 29 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

[hlcater]

If temps rise to +15c then crash to -15c then we would be hard pressed not to get a major system. Adding to this, it seems massive warm surges like this almost always precede a massive storm(which makes sense). Therefore given model runs I am feeling more confident than usual that someone gets a storm. Even with this seeming supporting a storm, suppression, shearing out and all the usual culprits are still on the table.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Euro looks great!

[indianajohn]

HAHA...."BombCyclone"!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/barstoolsports/videos/10156186040552502/

[Andrew NE]

I'm giving it till 12z Saturday till I start treating it like it has meaning. When both models have showed BS storms this season, they crapped out about 6 days out. Therefore, Saturday is the magic day for me. If it's there then, I'll start giving it respect.

We need to hope that this system works out because I fear after that the torch may be coming.

[Snowlover76]

Nyc doesn't deserve a single inch. Most ungrateful weenies ever out there.

[jaster220]

We need to hope that this system works out because I fear after that the torch may be coming.

 

Yeah, Nov 17-18 was a strong storm that basically was the grand finale' of that cold November pattern that had started over here on/about Oct 23rd. Weird season. Strong storm kicks-off below normal cold, strong storm ends below normal cold..

[jaster220]

On a side note, last evening's commute was by far the snowiest since 2014. I regret not having prepared for photos, but had car not start and with all that and the bad conditions I was just focused on getting home, lol. While the lakeshore had a good 4-6", there were places inland that had more like 6-8" and it was still a nice 3-4" event in Kzoo. Didn't drop off until east of there, and ofc mby got it's (11th)

 

Not finding many reports out of the hardest hit areas, just this one from GRR:

 

0355 AM SNOW BLOOMINGDALE 42.38N 85.97W
01/04/2018 M6.6 INCH VAN BUREN MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BLMM4, BLOOMINGDALE.

 

And this one from IWX:

 

1015 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSE SAINT JOSEPH 42.08N 86.48W
01/04/2018 E8.1 INCH BERRIEN MI COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION.

[bud2380]

Good to see the massive ridge in the west come back on the Euro at the end of the run.  I'm about ready for spring already.  

[Iowawx]

Good to see the massive ridge in the west come back on the Euro at the end of the run. I'm about ready for spring already.

Euro map for storm totals? How high do temps get at end of run?

[westMJim]

Some one wanted a comparison to last December and this is what I found out. At this point this year is  similar to last winter in the snow fall department although December was colder this winter.

2016 to 2017 comparison

Here is a December to December comparison on snow fall temperatures at Grand Rapids, MI

Snow fall December 2016 37.0”  December snow fall 2017 23.9”

Temperatures December 2016 mean was 27.5° or -1.7° December 2017 mean was 24.9° or -4.8°

The warmest temperature 2016 53°  warmest 2017 61° Coldest 2016 +4° coldest 2017 -12°

Total seasonal snow fall as of January 4^th 2017 38.3” 2018 36.7” The case still can be made that this winter could be like last winter a front loaded winter. As for total snow for this this winter season it still could go either way. We are now getting to the point where lake effect could be less of a player as we go deeper into January while not a complete shut off as the lakes get colder they could produce less snow over our area,

[Niko]

Per Accu-Weather regarding the weekend storm.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-ice-to-spread-from-central-to-northeastern-us-as-temperatures-rise-sunday-and-monday/70003730

[Niko]

Some one wanted a comparison to last December and this is what I found out. At this point this year is  similar to last winter in the snow fall department although December was colder this winter.

2016 to 2017 comparison

Here is a December to December comparison on snow fall temperatures at Grand Rapids, MI

Snow fall December 2016 37.0”  December snow fall 2017 23.9”

Temperatures December 2016 mean was 27.5° or -1.7° December 2017 mean was 24.9° or -4.8°

The warmest temperature 2016 53°  warmest 2017 61° Coldest 2016 +4° coldest 2017 -12°

Total seasonal snow fall as of January 4^th 2017 38.3” 2018 36.7” The case still can be made that this winter could be like last winter a front loaded winter. As for total snow for this this winter season it still could go either way. We are now getting to the point where lake effect could be less of a player as we go deeper into January while not a complete shut off as the lakes get colder they could produce less snow over our area,

When you get the chance, check to see if it has been a colder year than 13-14'. I am a little curious about that. I would not be surprise if it has been colder thus far tbh, but not by a far stretch, ofc.

[bud2380]

This is the Euro snow qpf map from weather.us  Temps are cold on the backside of the system.  Looks like highs in the teens, but the ridge rebuilds in the west.