January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

FWIW: PER NOAA:

 

The longwave troughing pattern will finally move east out of the
Great Lakes region Saturday into Sunday and will allow temperatures
to return back to seasonal normals for both Sunday and Monday, as
forecasted highs peak in the low to mid-30s. Sunday and Monday will
also introduce the chance for widespread accumulating snow chances
as a series of fronts move through Michigan. The first chance for
snow will be focused across Flint to Saginaw and into the Thumb as a
clipper system moves across Ontario, creating a broad precipitation
shield across northern Michigan and Ontario, which will be fueled by
added moisture from the south as a weak warm front starts to push
into southern Michigan. Snow chances become more likely across all
of SE MI late Sunday into Monday as warm air continues to push into
the region. Lingering snow chances will be possible Monday afternoon
into evening as a cold front is then expected to move through the
state. This cold front is expected to knock daytime high
temperatures back into the 20s through the mid-week period.

 

Still, changes are to be expected.

[Niko]

I know the year is only 2 days old, but this may hold as one of the best quotes of the rest of the year from MPX this morning:

 

‘Looking ahead, since there are no starting and stopping points in a

planet that has no corners, it is very difficult to determine cause

and effects of specific weather systems.’

I agree!

[FV-Mike]

Crazy to see winter storm warnings in North Florida

[St Paul Storm]

A few flurries starting here now. A thin but intense band is moving into the metro from the NW just in time for rush hour. 0.5” expected.

[Niko]

Crazy to see winter storm warnings in North Florida

I have a friend who lives in Jacksonville, FL and told me that flurries were reported there earlier today w possible snow accumulations  later on.   This kinda reminds me of the 1899 blizzard that unfolded down south where snows were reported even in Miami, FL. The north was walloped w snows.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/climate-history-great-arctic-outbreak-february-1899

[St Paul Storm]

Crazy to see winter storm warnings in North Florida

Not nearly as rare, but the higher terrains in Hawaii had warnings not too long ago as well.

[Tony]

18z GFS for this weekend is junk. It just seems to be getting worse with each ensuing run.

[Iowawx]

GFS is rain here once again. Nobody should think about starting a thread about it. 

[hlcater]

GFS is rain here once again. Nobody should think about starting a thread about it. 

bruh its 5-6 days out. Not only that, there's zero R2R continuity.

[jaster220]

18z GFS for this weekend is junk. It just seems to be getting worse with each ensuing run.

 

bruh its 5-6 days out. Not only that, there's zero R2R continuity.

 

Sure is totally hell-bent on N stream dominance (aside from the EC bomber ofc)

[Tony]

It's like each run of the GFS was made especially for the EC. Just pathetic!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow we made me going back to complaining here in the great plains lol. The trends today were not good with the euro being the exception in the long range

[Andrew NE]

We have seen this pattern more times than not. Back to a snooze fest around here.

[NEJeremy]

If you take the GFS verbatim, most of SD, NE, IA, and KS get nada for any appreciable snow the next 16 days. Everything is north and east of those states.

[westMJim]

Some December snow fall totals

Grand Rapids had 32.9″ of snow during December.  Much of our in Michigan is snow was lake-effect, from the cold, Arctic air coming over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Michigan.  So, there was significantly more snow at the lakeshore than well inland from the lake.  Muskegon had a whopping 51.7″ of snow (22.8″ above average), ending the month with 17″ of snow on the ground the snow compacts, so 12″ of snowfall doesn’t always equate to 12″ of snow on the ground.  Inland, Lansing had 17.4″ that is still 4.4” above average there. Grand Rapids had 17 days with measurable snow, the most was 7″ on Christmas Day.  Other Dec. snowfall totals:  Hart 45.6″, Bloomingdale 43.2″, Augusta 35.4″, Socttville 34.3″, Kalamazoo 33.7″, Fremont 32.0″, Hastings 29.5″, Charlotte 22.7″, Grand Ledge 17.2″, Big Rapids 16.4″.  Dec. snow in the U.P:  75.0″ Delaware, 64.2″ at Munising, 48.9″ at Bergland Dam, 46.2″ at Ironwood, 44.9″ at Herman, 38.0″ at Marquette. 

[Niko]

Currently @ 9F w beautiful clear skies w the only exception of a few patchy, red clouds in the far, far distance near the glorious sunset. Absolutely magnificent. Picture postcard!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well for right now things don't look good but will likely change in the next model run lol.

[Hoosier]

ORD currently has 5.4" of snow so far this season. I took a look at years with less than 6" through the end of December and rolled forward, and it usually means the season is heading toward a subpar snow total, but not always.

 

Not including this year, there have been 45 years that had less than 6" at the open of January. That translates to about a 1 in 3 year occurrence. 33 of the 45 went on to finish with below average snow, while 12 finished above. The group that ended up snowier than average generally ended up in the 38-45" range, so not overwhelmingly snowier than average (30 year average at ORD is just over 36"). 2 of the 12 did recover to finish a hair over 50" -- 1998-99 and 2014-15 -- but it took 2 historic type snowstorms to do so in those 2 winters.

 

Bottom line, it's not a good sign that ORD is currently where they are in terms of snowfall. However, it is too soon to rule out the possibility of enough of a recovery to finish snowier than average, even if it is less likely than not.

[Hawkeye]

Impressive. How far back do records go.

 

It appears records go back to the 1890s.  Yes, putting three straight -20s records in the book is pretty impressive.

[james1976]

Snowing and blowing here. Isnt gonna last long but sure is nice to see again. Flakes are small.

[jaster220]

Some December snow fall totals

Grand Rapids had 32.9″ of snow during December.  Much of our in Michigan is snow was lake-effect, from the cold, Arctic air coming over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Michigan.  So, there was significantly more snow at the lakeshore than well inland from the lake.  Muskegon had a whopping 51.7″ of snow (22.8″ above average), ending the month with 17″ of snow on the ground the snow compacts, so 12″ of snowfall doesn’t always equate to 12″ of snow on the ground.  Inland, Lansing had 17.4″ that is still 4.4” above average there. Grand Rapids had 17 days with measurable snow, the most was 7″ on Christmas Day.  Other Dec. snowfall totals:  Hart 45.6″, Bloomingdale 43.2″, Augusta 35.4″, Socttville 34.3″, Kalamazoo 33.7″, Fremont 32.0″, Hastings 29.5″, Charlotte 22.7″, Grand Ledge 17.2″, Big Rapids 16.4″.  Dec. snow in the U.P:  75.0″ Delaware, 64.2″ at Munising, 48.9″ at Bergland Dam, 46.2″ at Ironwood, 44.9″ at Herman, 38.0″ at Marquette.

 

I wanted to look at SWMI totals, thx for this!

[jaster220]

ORD currently has 5.4" of snow so far this season. I took a look at years with less than 6" through the end of December and rolled forward, and it usually means the season is heading toward a subpar snow total, but not always.

Not including this year, there have been 45 years that had less than 6" at the open of January. That translates to about a 1 in 3 year occurrence. 33 of the 45 went on to finish with below average snow, while 12 finished above. The group that ended up snowier than average generally ended up in the 38-45" range, so not overwhelmingly snowier than average (30 year average at ORD is just over 36"). 2 of the 12 did recover to finish a hair over 50" -- 1998-99 and 2014-15 -- but it took 2 historic type snowstorms to do so in those 2 winters.

Bottom line, it's not a good sign that ORD is currently where they are in terms of snowfall. However, it is too soon to rule out the possibility of enough of a recovery to finish snowier than average, even if it is less likely than not.

Cue Big Dog snowstorm..

[Niko]

Temp @ 4F currently. Heading down to -4F. Its a frigid evening!

[Niko]

Northern parts of FL under WWA n WSW's. Go figure.

[Iowawx]

Snowing and blowing here. Isnt gonna last long but sure is nice to see again. Flakes are small.

How did you get from the band that is moving through? The band is almost to my area and I am hoping to get half an inch from it. 

[james1976]

How did you get from the band that is moving through? The band is almost to my area and I am hoping to get half an inch from it. 

Didn't measure but looking like 1 or 2 tenths when ilook out at the deck. Its windy too so that doesn't help. I should prolly go out and get an actual measurement.

[james1976]

OK.....i just did several measurements. Hard to do with the wind but I'm going with 0.3". Some spots were bare, some spots had 0.5-0.6.........so I figure 0.3" is fairly accurate. This puts me at 9.6" on the season.

[hlcater]

Snowing pretty hard, flakes are pretty small like James said but boy are there a lot of them.

[jaster220]

Bravery by GRR's standards!

 

For Marshall

 

Sunday A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30.

Sunday Night Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25.

Monday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33.

[Iowawx]

Tiny flakes have been coming down hard here for the past several minutes, too bad this band of snow is only about 20 miles wide. 

[Money]

Much much better phasing this run on the 0z gfs

[St Paul Storm]

And all that rain washes away people’s snow in the process.

[bud2380]

Snowing nicely here right now. Sadly it will just be a nuisance snow though. I’d rather it not snow to be honest. This won’t get plowed or shoveled but will slow down traffic especially on side roads.

[Iowawx]

Now GFS is all rain in my area and for a lot of us on this forum. Still hoping for a snow event, but if models don't change by late Thursday or early Friday, may have to throw towel in on this one. 

[St Paul Storm]

Wish that first wave dropping in from the NW would slow down.

[hlcater]

Rain even on the north side of the system in January? That would be unusual, but not unprecedented. Especially after a long and entrenched very cold regime. 

[snowstorm83]

Lol areas of Iowa go from sub zero temps to a cold rain in a matter of 30 hours

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yeah parts of South and North Carolina will nearly double all of our snow totals here in one storm. This just aint right

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018010300/060/snku_acc.us_ma.png

[Tabitha]

"Arctic air across the area on New Years Day morning, combined with clear skies and light winds, produced air temperatures of 25 below to near 45 below zero across much of northwest South Dakota into portions of south central South Dakota. The coldest temperatures were across portions of Perkins and Ziebach counties, where lows dropped to around 40 below zero. The coldest recorded temperature was 44 below zero at an automated observation site along the North Fork of the Grand River just west of Shadehill Reservoir, southwest of Lemmon. Daily record lows occurred at numerous sites, with the Milesville and Maurine cooperative observation sites recording all time record lows."

___NWS Rapid City

 

http://www.weather.gov/unr/New_Years_Day_Morning_Lows

[Hawkeye]

The snow didn't last long, but it came down pretty good.  I picked up 0.4".