jaster220 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Found a list: The 2nd one (the associated wind gusts are listed underneath) mainly affected the Maritime Provinces of Eastern Canada: Lowest pressure.. 940 mb or 27.76 inHg Superstorm Sandy October 2012 955 mb or 28.20 inHg south of Nova Scotia March 26, 2014: 960 mb or 28.35 inHg The Blizzard of 1993 968 mb or 28.59 inHg February 2013 blizzard 968 mb or 28.59 inHg April 5 - 7, 1982 Nor'easterHighest wind gusts.. 82 mph on Nantucket, MA: Highest gust since official records began in 1998 114 mph Wreckhouse, NL: beating the previous record set in 2007 119 mph Buoy off the coast of Maine: This observation is under review 129 mph on Seal Island in the Bay of Fundy So my guesses were pretty good; even before I found the list... We may need a "former EC peeps" thread soon Tom.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 It will be interesting to see if this thing actually makes "landfall" in the US. It could be close as models have had the center flirting with the coast of Maine. Very rare to get a 950s (or, gasp, maybe even 940s?!) storm in the winter at that latitude/longitude. The 18z RGEM; which is one of the best models inside of 36 hours; has the cyclonic center coming ashore around Yarmouth, Nova Scotia at Hour 31 (1:00 AM GMT Friday) with a central pressure of 950 mb / 28.05". It looks like it remains well SE of the 40 / 70 Benchmark as it passes SE of the Nantucket Island and then well east of the Maine coast (at least 100 miles offshore); as most of these things do; since the tendency to traverse the baroclinic zone between the land and the water is pervasive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 It will be interesting to see if this thing actually makes "landfall" in the US. It could be close as models have had the center flirting with the coast of Maine. Very rare to get a 950s (or, gasp, maybe even 940s?!) storm in the winter at that latitude/longitude.Saw your post on Amwx about hoping it didn't, but tbh, thanks to NWS employees in MN bird-dogging the heck outta "Octo-Bomb" in 2010, the Cleveland Super-bomb lost bragging rights..on a technicality! It's known to have continued to deepen after passing NNW of CLE to 950 or 951 mb as recorded in Sarnia, which means Pt. Huron in MI would've had the same reading on the US side. But, back then apparently the storm was so disruptive nobody paid attention to those details in that era. The lowest baro was actually reached over Lk. Huron, while US territory not sure if that'd be considered "over land" or not tbh? Discussed this with Bill Deedler from DTX some years back.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 The 18z RGEM; which is one of the best models inside of 36 hours; has the cyclonic center coming ashore around Yarmouth, Nova Scotia at Hour 31 (1:00 AM GMT Friday) with a central pressure of 950 mb / 28.05". Not US territory, so Octo-Bomb looks safe for purely non-tropical origin cyclones Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Not US territory, so Octo-Bomb looks safe for purely non-tropical origin cyclones Anyway, if anything like this ever did come up the NJ coast and make extratropical landfall in the New York Bight; it would be nothing but a rainstorm up into New Hampshire & Vermont; as the entire column practically up into the province of Quebec would warm dramatically...especially if there were not an arctic anticyclone sitting over eastern Canada to hold the cold air in place. Hence the post I made about deep lows not necessarily making for good snow storms; particularly near the water. Of course the track is the all controlling variable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Looking forward to the next Euro/CMC run tonight. If 0z GFS is anything like the 18z then it will not even be worth looking at.18z was a complete un-phased dog turd! No wonder Tom said wait. Sheesh that was ugly! Looks like perhaps every last ounce of phase magic for the entire E CONUS will be spent on yet another EC bliz Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Jaster; all the likes you have graced my posts with demonstrate an unwavering and boundless loyalty; and it is due to this fidelity that I am henceforth going to offer you a job with My Organization...and the Great Work we are in the midst of. Are you interested in joining? The benefits that come with the job are fantastic; the trick is not to get tossed into the Lake of Fire; that's really the key to the benefit program...Are you undercover for the Sith or something? This is not the first time your off-topic post has mentioned being on the wrong side of the galactic struggle.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Currently @ 15F under partly cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 The 18z RGEM; which is one of the best models inside of 36 hours; has the cyclonic center coming ashore around Yarmouth, Nova Scotia at Hour 31 (1:00 AM GMT Friday) with a central pressure of 950 mb / 28.05". It looks like it remains well SE of the 40 / 70 Benchmark as it passes SE of the Nantucket Island and then well east of the Maine coast (at least 100 miles offshore); as most of these things do; since the tendency to traverse the baroclinic zone between the land and the water is pervasive.Yeah you're right. I had only been looking at zoomed out maps which made it look like a closer pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Snow is already reaching CNJ. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Talk about a turd look at the 0z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Gfs has a nice storm for IA/IL/WI on the 11th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Talk about a turd look at the 0zThey can't get rid of the GFS fast enough. Just terrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Gfs has a nice storm for IA/IL/WI on the 11thGEM agrees with this also https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010400&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=157 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 GEM agrees with this also https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010400&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=157Only a week away...what could possibly go wrong. Joking aside, it really does look like one heck of a storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Only a week away...what could possibly go wrong. Joking aside, it really does look like one heck of a stormGEM is a little faster (hr 144-156) timeframe but yeah been hard to get these storms within 3 days this year Hopefully this is the one tho been showing up past couple days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Talk about a turd look at the 0z 0z GFS has a snow event in the Black Hills on Sunday; and another one towards next Wednesday into Thursday; at least it provides a little hope. Canadian has nothing for this area; but is good for N. Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, northern Illinois...with some weak disturbances moving through over the next 10 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Here’s the 0z gfs for that storm http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018010400&fh=198&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 0z GFS has a snow event in the Black Hills on Sunday; and another one towards next Wednesday into Thursday; at least it provides a little hope. Canadian has nothing for this area; but is good for N. Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, northern Illinois...with some weak disturbances moving through over the next 10 days. It seems the luck never seems to go this way; it reminds me of that saying: Misfortune; the kind of fortune that never misses! But the "CPC" 6 -10 and 8 -14 have been saying "above normal" precip. here since about 1917...I think they were fibbing; or at the every least engaging in willful prevarication in order to elicit additional views... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Only a week away...what could possibly go wrong. Joking aside, it really does look like one heck of a storm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvD6ilfrBw8#t=02m02s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 The evolution of this storm is gonna change like crazy, so don't get stuck on one pattern lol. Read Gary Lezacs blog and seems like a more pronounced negatively tilted storm could form out of this Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Here’s the 0z gfs for that storm http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018010400&fh=198&r=us_mw&dpdt=Best 'spread the wealth' storm ive seen yet this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 0z GFS has a snow event in the Black Hills on Sunday; and another one towards next Wednesday into Thursday; at least it provides a little hope. I looked at the GFS snow map and wondered where the snow went for Sunday; and then I noticed in semi-amazement that the model actually has rain here on Sunday; below about 4500 feet or so. I incorrectly assumed and took for granted that in the middle of January I would at least get snow at 3500' and 44 N latitude; but not this year! Actually the temperature at the surface is not so much a problem; but rather at 850 mb; as it goes up to about +7 C on Saturday before slowly going down over the next 24 hours. GFS is probably overdoing the temps; and odds are it will be cool enough by then (climatology infers that rain is hard to come by here in January); but still, not terribly encouraging... Bring on spring! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Here’s the 0z gfs for that storm http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018010400&fh=198&r=us_mw&dpdt=Move that South and I'll take it. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Move that s**t South and I'll take it. I remember that movie Airport (1970) where the airport they were trying to land at was called "Lincoln" though it was actually in Chicago...which made for some confusion...not just for the pilot. In a film that, at times, moved at a rather laborious pace; this was definitely the best scene: http://www.airlinetv.net/view_video.php?viewkey=6fffe2ee4ddf4a988880 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Move that s**t South and I'll take it.You have more snow than Chicago and I this winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 WOW the euro has a monster system! The storm moves more east which brings some heavier snow through eastern Neb. Still most of it west but we do get some accumulating snow out of it. Alll models look different lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 You have more snow than Chicago and I this winterWho cares, its everyone for themselves lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 00z Euro basically a no show for a lot of us except if you live in C IL or IN for the Sun/Mon system....swing and a miss with this one it seems...as for the system later next week, 00z EPS suggesting a warm cutter and hits those members up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 I've seen better things in my cat's litterbox than 00z Euro. It literally shows a March-like rain pattern in January. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 NAM showing an ice storm over Central and South MO on the last run. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 I've seen better things in my cat's litterbox than 00z Euro. It literally shows a March-like rain pattern in January.LOL, ya, no joke...what the heck was wrong with that run??? Teleconnections show no support with that such solution. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 I can't believe temps in N MN are still hovering in the low -30's...#icebox.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 I can't believe temps in N MN are still hovering in the low -30's...#icebox.... This winter's only midwestern headlines, outside of the LES belts. #disappointing for most 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 00z Euro basically a no show for a lot of us except if you live in C IL or IN for the Sun/Mon system....swing and a miss with this one it seems...as for the system later next week, 00z EPS suggesting a warm cutter and hits those members up north.Throwing in the towel already?! That's not the Tom we know! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Throwing in the towel already?! That's not the Tom we know! LolI’m not seeing it with this one, models are not suggesting any good trends in phasing and basically taking the southern energy farther south. I think the monster EC storm is throwing a wrench in this one. I’d be happy to score 2”, believe me, but it’s gonna take a shift in track to do so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Today will make the 16th day in a row of snow fall here in Grand Rapids. While here at my house I had just over 5” of new snow at GRR they only reported 2.5” The airport reports 8” on the ground and my total this morning is 12.5” for the month of January Grand Rapids is now at 3.2” and for the season the total at GRR is now 36.7” With the cold and snow we have had One has to wonder if the pendulum will now swing back to warmer and less snow in the weeks ahead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Climatology for today January 4th At Grand Rapids, MI The average H/L for Grand Rapids for today is 31/19The record high is 60° in 1997 the coldest maximum is 10 set in 1981The record low is -20° set in 1981 the warmest minimum is 39 set in 1909The largest snow fall is 6.3” in 1941The most on the ground is 17” in 1999Last year the H/L was 33/15 and 1.1” of snow fell there was only a trace on the ground at 7AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 Sunny and very cold currently w temps holding @ 7F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 This winter's only midwestern headlines, outside of the LES belts. #disappointing for mostLong range eye candy has not panned out for us this year. I'm actually ready for this winter to be over 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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