January Weather In the PNW

[TT-SEA]

You could use your own advice

 

 

You are probably the best candidate for such advice on this entire forum.   All you seem to do is search out my posts through pages of detail.   That represents the vast majority of your posts on here.   I am honored in a way.   

[TT-SEA]

I was mainly talking about that stretch of 70s in March.

 

Ahhhh.    

[TT-SEA]

This is a messy global weather pattern coming up..all sorts of self-contradiction within the system. Not easy to follow, let alone extrapolate. So, I guess I don’t have too much to offer going forward, for the time being.

 

Speaking of wacky...thunderstorms, rain, snow, sleet, and subzero windchills all within a span of 24hrs? Mother Nature must be on one hell of a bender.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=MDZ504

 

Still appreciate your guidance even if the global pattern is messy... you can at least explain the messiness and possible outcomes.  

[Guest El nina]

Still appreciate your guidance even if the global pattern is messy... you can at least explain the messiness and possible outcomes.

I honestly dont care if his predictions are wrong sometimes. The amount of knowledge he has and shares with us is quite amazing. He's one of the reasons I keep coming back.

[Bryant]

You are probably the best candidate for such advice on this entire forum. All you seem to do is search out my posts through pages of detail. That represents the vast majority of your posts on here. I am honored in a way.

I don't search, you make it easy. You seem to think you're constantly above the fray, and you're wrong. You twist every post into looking like you're innocent, when you're far from it. We all have our internet personalities, some of us probably stray far from our true selves on here. You however, every rude and condensending thing you say seems to translate into who you really are behind that monitor.

[Phil]

It's crazy that it's 63 degrees there right now but it's going to plummet to the low 30s overnight. I'd love to experience something like that happening in real time. Does that area ever get thundersnow?

Not very often. Haven’t seen it since 2016.

[Gradient Keeper]

Best GFS run in 2 weeks. Ridge over us at Day 9-10 is shoved further east and flattened. Day 11 modified arctic air moving towards eastern Washington.

[Bryant]

Best GFS run in 2 weeks. Ridge over us at Day 9-10 is shoved further east and flattened. Day 11 modified arctic air moving towards eastern Washington.

Thanks for the quality content you deliver DJ. Appreciate you and your unbiased approach you bring.

[TT-SEA]

I don't search, you make it easy. You seem to think you're constantly above the fray, and you're wrong. You twist every post into looking like you're innocent, when you're far from it. We all have our internet personalities, some of us probably stray far from our true selves on here. You however, every rude and condensending thing you say seems to translate into who you really are behind that monitor.

 

You do search... you come here and respond to something I posted from 5 days ago and then leave.    And you are one of the most rude people on here.   So there is that.  

[BLI snowman]

Holy hell, an actually good GFS run. I almost forgot what those looked like.

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks for the quality content you deliver DJ. Appreciate you and your unbiased approach you bring.

No problem thanks.

[ShawniganLake]

Best GFS run in 2 weeks. Ridge over us at Day 9-10 is shoved further east and flattened. Day 11 modified arctic air moving towards eastern Washington.

Almost gets really good towards the end.

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy hell, an actually good GFS run. I almost forgot what those looked like.

Yeah, and it has been a long time. MAYBE we see some actual real improvements on the Ensembles.

[Gradient Keeper]

Almost gets really good towards the end.

The 500mb pattern is amazing. At Day 15-16 the block is reorganizing, strengthening and if you were to extrapolate beyond that just for fun we would see a massive blast. January 1950 pattern setting up.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, and it has been a long time. MAYBE we see some actual real improvements on the Ensembles.

Maybe an upgrade from “not bad” to “almost good”

[TT-SEA]

Holy hell, an actually good GFS run. I almost forgot what those looked like.

 

January 1996?

 

It does look good after 240 hours.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Maybe an upgrade from “not bad” to “almost good”

We'll have to get the approval from Dewey, but yeah perhaps.

 

--

00z ECMWF in 44 minutes

[Phil]

Best GFS run in 2 weeks. Ridge over us at Day 9-10 is shoved further east and flattened. Day 11 modified arctic air moving towards eastern Washington.

Heh, not a bad run. Miracles do happen, ya know..

[Phil]

There’s a SSW on this run too, FWIW.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Best GFS run in 2 weeks. Ridge over us at Day 9-10 is shoved further east and flattened. Day 11 modified arctic air moving towards eastern Washington.

 

Jet suppression looks good with the lows headed into S Oregon/ N California border.  A bit more amplification offshore and the Valley could have a nice snowstorm with that setup.

 

Night shift should be fun on this Friday night.  I've got some SKYY and some of that legal green stuff, what about you guys?

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UH01FhqMdc8

[BLI snowman]

January 1996?

 

It does look good after 240 hours.   

 

I only look after 240 hours now.

[Guest El nina]

[Front Ranger]

Still appreciate your guidance even if the global pattern is messy... you can at least explain the messiness and possible outcomes.

Phil says a lot of things. Comforting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really really good GFS run. That Jan. 29 onward might be something to watch for a blast!

[Deweydog]

Phil says a lot of things. Comforting.

2018 Flatiron is all kinds of full of piss and vinegar. Gonna be a weird year!

[wx_statman]

FWIW, we're long overdue for some late-January Nina magic. We've been mostly blanked during that time period since 1996, and prior to that you have to go all the way back to 1972. Late January's of 2008 and 2009 both gave us little bits of action, but that's about it. 

 

During the cold phase, 1950/1951/1956/1957/1962/1963/1968/1972 all had -ENSO and all delivered between Jan. 20-31. 

[TT-SEA]

Phil says a lot of things. Comforting.

 

He does offer lots of good information here.   Things obviously go off track and long range forecasts go awry... but I still find most of his posts informative and sometimes fascinating.  

[snow_wizard]

Hmmm...maybe I'm not so crazy after all!

[Phil]

Translated.

 

What about me? Why don’t you appreciate my guidance too?!

[Deweydog]

Hmmm...maybe I'm not so crazy after all!

Yeah................. You're still nuts.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, we're long overdue for some late-January Nina magic. We've been mostly blanked during that time period since 1996, and prior to that you have to go all the way back to 1972. Late January's of 2008 and 2009 both gave us little bits of action, but that's about it. 

 

During the cold phase, 1950/1951/1956/1957/1962/1963/1968/1972 all had -ENSO and all delivered between Jan. 20-31. 

 

Indeed!  Justin and I have mentioned that a time or two in the recent past.  Events that begin in late Jan and go into Feb are some of the all time greats.  1996 and 1972 were really nice in the Puget Sound region.  Both had a decent period of snow cover and local lakes froze over.  That's when the totally awesome 1928-29 really got going also.

[Phil]

He does offer lots of good information here. Things obviously go off track and long range forecasts go awry... but I still find most of his posts informative and sometimes fascinating.

Thank you. I really do appreciate it.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah................. You're still nuts.

 

Well...you might have a point there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hmmm...maybe I'm not so crazy after all!

 

You spend time with the rest of us focused on being hopeful for weather events that are exceedingly rare for the lowlands here...we are all crazy.

[TT-SEA]

Taking a GFS run beyond 240 hours and claiming victory is probably not the best idea.    

[ShawniganLake]

Not seeing much improvement on the ensemble.

[Gradient Keeper]

and the GEFS says.... NOPE. No support

[Deweydog]

Ensembles aren't bad.

[wx_statman]

Indeed!  Justin and I have mentioned that a time or two in the recent past.  Events that begin in late Jan and go into Feb are some of the all time greats.  1996 and 1972 were really nice in the Puget Sound region.  Both had a decent period of snow cover and local lakes froze over.  That's when the totally awesome 1928-29 really got going also.

 

I have really good memories of that 1996 event down here. A number of aspects from that event have yet to be repeated in the 20+ years since. The 6 straight highs below freezing at PDX. Maximum of 23 under clear skies. Extensive ice floes on the Columbia. Hood River at -9. Corbett with 90-100 mph outflow gusts, along with temperatures in the single digits and heavy sleet/ZR. And a 50-year flood on the transition out.