January Weather In the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah in 1996 there was cold air in western Canada that got dropped down. There is not a source of cold air to bring down as all of the coldest air is on the other side of the planet in Russia, it's not going to happen this winter. Time to start thinking about the draft and finding a better kicker.

 

Next winter will be a wild card too. I predict weak +ENSO with one good regional event.

But it’s an 08-9 winter. Those are always good.

 

When aren’t our winters a wild card?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful spring day! Went down and got some river rock for a yard project, helped a goat that was stuck in a fence. Beautiful sunshine and 50 up here. Very warm month.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful spring day! Went down and got some river rock for a yard project, helped a goat that was stuck in a fence. Beautiful sunshine and 50 up here. Very warm month.

It is beautiful... up to 55 here and 56 at SEA. Might end up with 3 consecutive days with a high of 60 or warmer here. Awesome for mid January and a holiday weekend too.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Unreal that Eugene had a 36" snowstorm. What setup made that happen? Gorge influenced cold northerlies with a Pineapple Express?

[TT-SEA]

Almost 50 at Snoqualmie Pass now... my son said it feels like April skiing up there.

 

58 at SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unreal that Eugene had a 36" snowstorm. What setup made that happen? Gorge influenced cold northerlies with a Pineapple Express?

 

I believe they had 47" that month. What was amazing too is that places like Florence on the coast had 2-3' of snow with 20"+ totals all the way south to Bandon on the coast. But yes, basically extreme jet suppression with cold air to the north. Silver Falls at 1350' had about 100" of snow that month with a 51" depth on the 31st. 

[ShawniganLake]

Just looking back at 1996 in the BC interior, and indeed it turned very cold after the 15th. A lot of -10F to -20F departures the second half of January.

[Gradient Keeper]

Seems like a mostly reasonable take on things to me. Aside from the five snow events part.

Anything is possible. Literally anything, except for 4 snow events in Portland. Then again, ya never know the end of January and into February could turn cold/snowy. It would be foolish to suggest that it isn't a possibility. It would be foolish however to expect it.

 

 

Teleconnection Indices forecast

More improvements noted with a tanking PNA and the EPO turns slightly negative as well.

 

--

18z GFS in 42 minutes

[Phil]

The D15 12z EPS is beginning to show the +WPO response to the Siberian blast, which will re-activate the NPAC jet and surf zone as we close out the month of January.

 

[Phil]

The D15 12z EPS is beginning to show the +WPO response to the Siberian blast, which will re-activate the NPAC jet and surf zone as we close out the month of January.

 

The climatological response to this is +PNA/-EPO with the MJO entering the WPAC/WHEM next month..but if we pull off a SSW or something else off-domain..who knows.

[ShawniganLake]

The EPS was noticeably colder in western Canada than the 0z run in the day 8-13 range.

 

[Phil]

Brian Brettschneider (aka the map king) just added these to his website.

 

This fascinates me. I understand why the Arctic would lag the middle latitudes in the seasonal cycle, but why the west leads the east in the seasonal cycle makes less sense to me.

 

[Phil]

The only reason I can think of is that western North America is more easily influenced by the seasonal cycle of the Pacific SSTs/ITCZ, and the Rockies protect eastern North America from that influence somewhat, such that temperatures east of the Rockies are more synchronized with those in the Arctic compared to those west of the Rockies.

[ShawniganLake]

The climatological response to this is +PNA/-EPO with the MJO entering the WPAC/WHEM next month..but if we pull off a SSW or something else off-domain..who knows.

Luckily, that Siberian blast is going to cause model chaos once it interacts with the pacific. +PNA cancelled.

[Phil]

The only reason I can think of is that western North America is more easily influenced by the seasonal cycle of the Pacific SSTs/ITCZ, and the Rockies protect eastern North America from that influence somewhat, such that temperatures east of the Rockies are more synchronized with those in the Arctic compared to those west of the Rockies.

This would also explain why glacial inception (the start of Ice Ages) always begins in NE-Canada, and why much of Alaska and far NW-Canada remains glacier-free during these phases.

[Phil]

Brian Brettschneider (aka the map king) just added these to his website.

 

This fascinates me. I understand why the Arctic would lag the middle latitudes in the seasonal cycle, but why the west leads the east in the seasonal cycle makes less sense to me.

 

What’s interesting, though, is that things flip around afterwards, as western North-American summers begin very late compared to the rest of the country, until you get into central Alaska/NW Canada, where the inverse is true.

 

I assume this has something to due to the seasonality of the Pacific High.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fun at the river...

 

[BLI snowman]

Blasting the AC today. Could be an uncomfortable sleeping night.

[Phil]

[Phil]

Fun at the river...

 

Wonderful picture, man.

[Phil]

Okay, so..looks like seven of the 12z EPS members have a large Arctic blast developing around d13-15, but the rest are average to mild with nothing in sight.

 

No middle ground, apparently..

[Phil]

So, the stratospheric polar vortex (aka: the Alcatraz for Arctic air) takes a significant body blow next week.

 

It tries to recover, but what happens afterwards could actually be very important..

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonderful picture, man.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Up to a glorious 61 today

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Up to 54 at SEA already as the sun is coming out more now.   

 

53 here and partly sunny.    No wind and it feels sort of humid.

 

Looks like Hope is still sitting around freezing. Meanwhile it's a foggy 44F here.

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/726.jpg

[Phil]

[Jesse]

This would also explain why glacial inception (the start of Ice Ages) always begins in NE-Canada, and why much of Alaska and far NW-Canada remains glacier-free during these phases.

From what I always knew the Cordilleran Ice Sheet was massive and extended all the way to present day Olympia. It is what carved out the Puget Sound trough, as well as the various inlets and passages north of there into SE Alaska.

[Phil]

From what I always knew the Corderillan Ice Sheet was massive and extended all the way to present day Olympia. It is what carved out the Puget Sound trough, as well as the various inlets and passages north of there into SE Alaska.

Are you referring to glacial inception or glacial maximum?

 

Interesting information, btw. I didn’t know that.

[Jesse]

Are you referring to glacial inception or glacial maximum?

Maximum I suppose. I guess that could explain the difference.

[Phil]

Maximum I suppose. I guess that could explain the difference.

That’s fascinating re: glaciers gouging out the Puget Sound trough. The power these ice sheets had is simply amazing to me..how they permanently re-shaped geology in ways that define the landscape even today, and how “quickly”, from a geologic perspective, they were able to do it.

 

The Great Lakes. The Hudson Bay. Long Island. All thanks to frozen water and cold temperatures.

 

The Chesapeake Bay was also formed through seasonal meltwater floods when the rapid warming (4-5C in a few centuries) began following the LGM around 18kyrs ago. It must have been insane during those summers, to have a 20 mile wide, raging torrent of meltwater pouring off the ice sheet from June-August, then having it shut off and turn subarctic again from October - April. Not to mention sea levels rising up to 6”/yr.

[snow_wizard]

18z is pretty darn good.  Thicknesses down to 525 over SEA at day 10.

[Phil]

It’s actually one of the greatest, yet least spoken-of paradoxes in climate science today.

 

Given the size of the Great Ice Sheets, even using the most conservative estimates, the amount of additional energy required to melt even 70% of that ice by the early Holocene (less than 5000yrs following the closing stages of the LGM) is so large it almost defies the laws of thermodynamics as we know them, given how much latent heat is absorbed during ice melt. Insolation, seasonality, and GHGes can explain maybe 10% of it.

 

The only way to “solve” the problem is via a massive increase in heat fluxes from the cool, ice-age tropics. So much heat flux, in fact, that the corresponding increase in moisture transport/snowfall deposition would have to be overwhelmed by melting.

 

However, that much warm advection would steal so much from the tropical heat budget, that the climate system would actually be losing a significant amount of energy while melting the ice, even after factoring in positive feedbacks like albedo loss and cooling high latitude oceans.

 

But there are no alternative explanations than I can think of without resorting to hand-waving. There must have been a massive shift in the tropical/global circulation, perhaps a highly nonlinear response to changing orbital forcings, in order to terminate the ice age like that.

[Deweydog]

Feels weird outside.

[Front Ranger]

Oops. I must have fallen for some sarcasm bait.

 

I was thinking in terms of a mild start and a chilly finish. But things definitely got active sooner in ‘96.

 

Not that much sooner. The 15th instead of 18th? 

 

Either way, anyone expecting any winter to follow another exactly will be disappointed 100% of the time. There has definitely been similarities to 1995-96 this winter, along with 1989-90, and that looks to continue.

[Front Ranger]

Face it, you’re going down with the ship.

 

 

You're reading too much into my posts.

 

The month is trending cooler for the West. Take it at face value, it's fact.

 

[Front Ranger]

And if you want to talk seasonal forecasts, Phil, we both went cold for January. So any ship I'm going down with has you aboard as well. 

[Front Ranger]

Just looking back at 1996 in the BC interior, and indeed it turned very cold after the 15th. A lot of -10F to -20F departures the second half of January.

 

Looks like it will turn cold up there around the 20th this month.

[Prairiedog]

Bounced over to Bend Or for a wedding.  62f and low humidity today.  Feels like what a nice April day should be like.  Just feels really wrong for Jan. 13th.  I do like the low humidity and sun though.  But it's still wrong. 

[Phil]

You're reading too much into my posts.

 

The month is trending cooler for the West. Take it at face value, it's fact.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

The models aren’t trending cooler, though, and this MJO wave slowly approaching the WPAC/warm pool is a ticking time bomb.

[TT-SEA]

Up to a glorious 61 today

 

Awesome day... so warm.