January Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

This is tracking to be our lamest -ENSO January since 2006.

 

I bet there would be a way to tell that without even looking at the observed weather, just using frequency and tone of certain posts here as a proxy.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

High summer temperatures are responsible for the fires that cause the smoke, though. Quite the bind.

That's one part of it but it also has to do with how dry the soil is. Having some wildfires is completely natural but it's been out of control lately due to drought conditions. Last year's wildfire in the Gorge that brought ash to PDX was man-made though with those kids setting off fireworks.

[Jesse]

That's one part of it but it also has to do with how dry the soil is. Having some wildfires is completely natural but it's been out of control lately due to drought conditions. Last year's wildfire in the Gorge that brought ash to PDX was man-made though with those kids setting off fireworks.

 

Last year did not have drought conditions. It was an extremely wet spring. Hot summer temperatures tend to dry the soil and vegetation out quickly regardless, though.

 

We also had extensive smoke from the fires in the Cariboo region of BC and down south in the Siskiyous, among other places. Not just the Eagle Creek fire.

[Phil]

I distinctly remember you saying you didn't think any real -PNA would set in this month, except for maybe a few days with the jet extension. About a week ago.

 

You say a lot of things, Phil. But I have a pretty good memory.

You might have a good memory, but mine is better.

 

Here’s what I wrote. Note that the timescales in reference are sometimes different.

 

So, what does this imply?

Well, for one, it implies that the February transition into a more traditional Niña/-PNA cell could end up being a short lived/intraseasonal affair if the system fails to downwell the easterly shear/-QBO to 50mb within the next 7 weeks.

However, if the system does indeed successfully flip modes in this regard, then the back half of winter may behave more like a traditional La Niña.

FWIW, I’m not very interested in the upcoming jet extension, as far as western cold is concerned.

 

When the jet peaks/retracts, I guess a modest -PNA response is possible, but I’m not sure how long it lasts before the NW-Pacific trough/AK-BC ridge/Hudson Bay Vortex pattern returns.

 

I’m more interested in what could happen in February/March and when the QBO flips @ 50mb, and perhaps if a SSW could accelerate this process.

Re: The low frequency NAO/PNA connection in warm pool dominated winters.

 

I’ve been saying all winter that +NAO would teleconnect to +PNA on the low frequency, because that’s what history says happens in warm pool dominated winters. So far that has held true, even more-so than I thought it would.

If the PNA does go negative, I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that the NAO will, as well.

 

I also said this, and was knocked around a bit for it:

 

Bingo.

 

If the jet extension maximizes spatial potential, the middle of January is going to trend into a blast furnace of warmth across the western 2/3rds of the country, rather than usher in some sort of widespread cool Pacific airmass like some of the whacky GFS runs have been showing.

Regarding the upcoming 10 days from Jan 8-18th:

 

What range are you referring to? Because all I’m seeing for the next 10 days is +PNA/SW flow. As the east-Asian jet extends and builds the vortex south of the Aleutians it will try to pump the ridge up again..resulting in the Southwest flow above tropical EPAC anticyclone.

 

Anything beyond this timeframe should probably be ignored on the modeling, IMO. Going to be some serious wavetrain mishandling when the jet abruptly retracts again after day 10 and the NPAC fills with anticyclones.

[Deweydog]

This is tracking to be our lamest -ENSO January since 2006.

It's interesting because we all laughed off the loose connections to the big December +PNA pattern.

[Front Ranger]

Don't recall that. And it's actually now two weeks into the month and there's literally no support for any cold anomalies until the 20th, at the earliest. There's plenty to support the idea that you want badly for your forecast to verify though.

 

It's in the winter predictions thread.

 

I've said it before, with seasonal forecasting, I never expect to hit every month perfectly. That would just be lucky. I just try to be generally right for the season.

 

No denying there's a long way to go before we can grade this winter. Especially since my seasonal forecast was Dec-Mar.

[wx_statman]

I bet there would be a way to tell that without even looking at the observed weather, just using frequency and tone of certain posts here as a proxy.

 

That never seems to fail.

[Front Ranger]

Its not much different than the 00Z run.

 

I was not talking about nothing but warmth.   I said the next below freezing day at the pass was on day 8.   Now its day 7.    And specifically in reference to better skiing conditions.  

 

My son was not happy about it.   His response was 'its frickin January... come on'

 

If snow at the pass and low to mid 40s with rain in Seattle is our goal and considered success in the middle of January... then bravo.   We will achieve it!  

 

You mentioned upper 40s in Seattle at day 10. Whatever, you're clearly in a bitchy mood tonight. 

[Jesse]

It's interesting because we all laughed off the loose connections to the big December +PNA pattern.

 

I remember getting into a very lengthy argument with you about that that eventually went to PM.

 

You were actually the one arguing against 2005 similarities, or at least trying to frame things in a manner that highlighted differences at the surface while I was just attempting to point out the rough similarities at 500mb.

[Front Ranger]

It's interesting because we all laughed off the loose connections to the big December +PNA pattern.

 

Tough to argue this January has been, or looks to be, much at all like Jan 2006, though.

[wx_statman]

It's interesting because we all laughed off the loose connections to the big December +PNA pattern.

 

Chickens are coming home to roost. I also recall making a post back in October, about how 9/15-10/15 was the coolest at PDX since 2005. And of course, our holiday week 1" snow bonanza was VERY 2005-ish. 

[BLI snowman]

This is tracking to be our lamest -ENSO January since 2006.

2014 was pretty sad.

[Front Ranger]

This ain't happening.

 

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Last year did not have drought conditions. It was an extremely wet spring. Hot summer temperatures tend to dry the soil and vegetation out quickly regardless, though.

 

We also had extensive smoke from the fires in the Cariboo region of BC and down south in the Siskiyous, among other places. Not just the Eagle Creek fire.

Yeah hot summer temps dry the soil fast and lately we've had early starts to summer with hot temperatures in June. So the soil is very dry once August comes around. That probably plays a bigger factor in it.

[wx_statman]

2014 was pretty sad.

 

That crossed my mind. I gave it a pass for a 25 degree reading it produced. 

[Jesse]

Yeah hot summer temps dry the soil fast and lately we've had early starts to summer with hot temperatures in June. So the soil is very dry once August comes around. That probably plays a bigger factor in it.

Yup. Point being of course if you love summer heat and hate wildfires you will probably end up being disappointed somewhere.

[wx_statman]

This ain't happening.

 

cd71.218.95.91.11.19.14.6.prcp.png

 

January 2006 was in a class of its own for torching across the northern tier. Unlike this month. 

 

Our backyard reality wasn't much different however. Lame then, lame now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This ain't happening.

 

cd71.218.95.91.11.19.14.6.prcp.png

Yeah Tulsa had a 60/33 average that month or something insane like that. About a +12 anomaly. This month I think they are well below average. Or will be after next week at least.

[Jesse]

I remember getting into a very lengthy argument with you about that that eventually went to PM.

 

You were actually the one arguing against 2005 similarities, or at least trying to frame things in a manner that highlighted differences at the surface while I was just attempting to point out the rough similarities at 500mb.

I just don't think it will be all that similar, other than the fact it's overlaying the same chunk of calendar. Beyond that the comparisons are pretty sketchy given the fact it was such a hybrid. This one, at least to begin with is pretty much a straight up +PNA bomb. It's nothing personal.

[wx_statman]

January 2006 was such a joke. I've explored some of its numbers before. Bismarck, ND never fell below 5 degrees that month. Every other January since 1874 has fallen to at least -7. That's a mind-boggling gap. 

 

Prince George, BC didn't fall below 12. For comparison, January 1950 never rose above 14...and fell to -58. 

[Front Ranger]

January 2006 was in a class of its own for torching across the northern tier. Unlike this month. 

 

Our backyard reality wasn't much different however. Lame then, lame now. 

 

Lame to this point? Sure. 

 

But overall, really very little like 2006. Obviously the national pattern has been vastly different, but even locally, PDX has had a low in the 20s this month. They hadn't had one lower than 37 to this point in 2006. Plus, I don't recall much snowfall/ice around the border in BC in 2006.

 

That month also torched the PNW all the way through to the end, and that looks unlikely this month.

[Deweydog]

I remember getting into a very lengthy argument with you about that that eventually went to PM.

 

You were actually the one arguing against 2005 similarities, or at least trying to frame things in a manner that highlighted differences at the surface while I was just attempting to point out the rough similarities at 500mb.

I simply pointed out in a very diplomatic manner that the 500mb nuances of the 2005 pattern made it unique with two distinct clippers and a backdoor push just prior to the transition. Last month's big ridge was far more traditional from a mid winter ridge/inversion perspective.

 

But yes, I'm sure you flew off the handle over PM about it...

[Jesse]

I simply pointed out in a very diplomatic manner that the 500mb nuances of the 2005 pattern made it unique with two distinct clippers and a backdoor push just prior to the transition. Last month's big ridge was far more traditional from a mid winter ridge/inversion perspective.

 

But yes, I'm sure you flew off the handle over PM about it...

Actually not at all. The conversation was mostly civil, aside from the typical condescending stuff from you displayed here.

 

I posted the last message of it to refresh your memory.

[wx_statman]

Lame to this point? Sure. 

 

But overall, really very little like 2006. Obviously the national pattern has been vastly different, but even locally, PDX has had a low in the 20s this month. They hadn't had one lower than 37 to this point in 2006. Plus, I don't recall much snowfall/ice around the border in BC in 2006.

 

That month also torched the PNW all the way through to the end, and that looks unlikely this month.

 

Agreed on all counts. You have to remember what I said. This month is tracking to be the lamest -ENSO January since 2006. That's still my opinion. 

 

I'll be jumping for joy if we get slammed later this month. Or fall to 25. 

[Front Ranger]

Jan 1996 was totally lame for PDX until the last week of the month. Food for thought!

[Deweydog]

This ain't happening.

 

cd71.218.95.91.11.19.14.6.prcp.png

Not really the point. It's a frustration analog.

[Jesse]

Jan 1996 was totally lame for PDX until the last week of the month. Food for thought!

January 1989 also was pretty warm. PDX hit 60 the first week of the month, and 56 the week before the blast.

[Deweydog]

Jan 1996 was totally lame for PDX until the last week of the month. Food for thought!

For those not following along, Flatiron is saying things could change.

[wx_statman]

Jan 1996 was totally lame for PDX until the last week of the month. Food for thought!

 

That one got going mid-month. We had the severe-warned squall line on 1/15, then a surprise 2" to 4" out in NE Portland on the 18th followed by 50 mph south wind gusts that evening. Little bit of fun at least. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yup. Point being of course if you love summer heat and hate wildfires you will probably end up being disappointed somewhere.

Last year's Eagle Creek fire was just bad. We were suppose to make a run at record high temperatures but the wildfires kept temperatures down more than anticipated. If not for those kids we probably would have had clear skies and record high temps.

[wx_statman]

1956 is one of the better examples of a lame January that flipped to awesome during the last week. 

[Jesse]

Last year's Eagle Creek fire was just bad. We were suppose to make a run at record high temperatures but the wildfires kept temperatures down more than anticipated. If not for those kids we probably would have had clear skies and record high temps.

Missing out on record highs was definitely the worst aspect of that event.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's in the winter predictions thread.

 

I've said it before, with seasonal forecasting, I never expect to hit every month perfectly. That would just be lucky. I just try to be generally right for the season.

 

No denying there's a long way to go before we can grade this winter. Especially since my seasonal forecast was Dec-Mar.

March what?... so we can be fair and accurate. Because I am sure March will feature some marginal cold and some wet snow. I believe that is about the time a good winter type pattern should establish. Still, it would be a pretty epic fail of a winter overall, even with a cold and wet March— which I suspect will be the outcome.

[Front Ranger]

Not really the point. It's a frustration analog.

 

Weenies gone wild!

[Front Ranger]

January 1989 also was pretty warm. PDX hit 60 the first week of the month, and 56 the week before the blast.

 

Yep. Or you have Jan 1990, which featured a huge blowtorch the first half of the month, including a 61 on the 9th.

 

More than a couple of us acknowledged this could end up being a backloaded winter. Nothing really shocking has happened to this point.

 

If there was no sign in the models still of things trending cooler the second half of the month, then I might start getting worried.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Missing out on record highs was definitely the worst aspect of that event.

Well of course nobody wants their homes burned down. I live near the Gorge so for a while I was actually concerned it might reach my house. The wildfire was out of control.

[Front Ranger]

March what?... so we can be fair and accurate. Because I am sure March will be some marginal cold and some wet snow as that is about the time a good winter type pattern should establish. Still would a pretty epic fail of a winter overall even with our cold and wet March which I suspect will be the outcome.

 

I think there's a very good chance some fun will happen well before March.

 

I also think it's ironic that Tim and Andrew were the ones bitching the most this AM about the winter so far, as they both will probably have huge second halves.

[Jesse]

I think there's a very good chance some fun will happen well before March.

 

I also think it's ironic that Tim and Andrew were the ones bitching the most this AM about the winter so far, as they both will probably have huge second halves.

I will agree with that. Two baby-men living in the foothills.

[TT-SEA]

You mentioned upper 40s in Seattle at day 10. Whatever, you're clearly in a bitchy mood tonight. 

 

Not at all.   I am in a great mood.   And its Friday evening before a decent weekend.

 

It was about the same... mid 40s vs upper 40s.   I will have to remember to jump on all runs immediately or otherwise I am hiding the ECMWF.   I am pretty tired right now after a busy week... what If I cannot make it until almost 11 when the 00Z run finishes?   Am I hiding cold and snow maps while I sleep??    

 

Like I don't post cold and snow maps?   I probably post the most of those maps of all people here as well.   So now I am running and hiding from marginally different ECMWF runs?   

 

Its so stupid.  

[Phil]

I think there's a very good chance some fun will happen well before March.

 

I also think it's ironic that Tim and Andrew were the ones bitching the most this AM about the winter so far, as they both will probably have huge second halves.

He’s going all in!