Kayla Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z!Nicely done. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 PDX up to 50 again. Doesn’t matter much since they hit 52 overnight, but still pretty laughable for this much anticipated “cool period”. Starting to look like this January will end up second warmest on record at PDX, albeit still a few degrees cooler than 1953. Saturday-Monday is looking like another absolute torch at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 PDX says "**** this, I can hit 50 twice today 12 hours apart!" Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I sort of see where he’s coming from, though. All you are basically saying here is that the climate would be very different right now if things had gone differently the past five years. It doesn’t seem very earth shattering, especially considering that they didn’t.I’m probably framing this poorly. I’ll put it this way: if we hadn’t entered solar maximum in 2012/13 and snapped the circulation, the drawdown of tropical OHC and subsequent global cooling would probably have continued/accelerated, countering the radiative forcing from CO^2 (which is much less over this timespan than the increase in convective poleward ventilation of heat, and the corresponding increase in tropical cloud cover. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 You're reading too much into this. It was just worth a poke given the fact you have a bit of a nut job past when it comes to the other side of the "OMG, THIS IS IT!" coin.You have a long weather forum memory, man. That initial “ice age” thread I made (while high as a teenager) was over six years ago. I think it was back in November 2011. Either way, bringing it up now feels like typical Dewey lawyering. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I’m probably framing this poorly. I’ll put it this way: if we hadn’t entered solar maximum in 2012/13 and snapped the circulation, the drawdown of tropical OHC and subsequent global cooling would probably have continued/accelerated, countering the radiative forcing from CO^2 (which is much less over this timespan than the increase in convective poleward ventilation of heat, and the corresponding increase in tropical cloud cover. Blaming solar maximum seems kind of silly. The solar MIN/MAX cycle is relatively predictable. It's like me saying, if the earth froze on its axis and sun angles stopped increasing right now, PDX would have Juneau's climate by the start of Trump's second term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 PDX up to 50 again. Doesn’t matter much since they hit 52 overnight, but still pretty laughable for this much anticipated “cool period”. Starting to look like this January will end up second warmest on record at PDX, albeit still a few degrees cooler than 1953. Saturday-Monday is looking like another absolute torch at this point. Pretty incredible the torching they have achieved this month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Blaming solar maximum seems kind of silly. The solar MIN/MAX cycle is relatively predictable. It's like me saying, if the earth froze on its axis and sun angles stopped increasing right now, PDX would have Juneau's climate by the start of Trump's second term. If we are planning on freezing the Earth on its axis... can we wait for 5 months? Thanks! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 You have a long weather forum memory, man. That initial “ice age” thread I made (while high as a teenager) was over six years ago. I think it was back in November 2011. Either way, bringing it up now feels like typical Dewey lawyering.I don't need a law degree to see the somewhat bland humor in it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Pretty incredible the torching they have achieved this month.Gradients have been favorable for south winds there without much of a break ever since we first started flirting with the 540dm thickness line 5-6 days ago. They have been running about 50/40 on average for the whole period despite a parade of reasonably cool upper airmasses. We would have been better off to end the month with more ridging, in terms of cold anomalies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Blaming solar maximum seems kind of silly. The solar MIN/MAX cycle is relatively predictable. It's like me saying, if the earth froze on its axis and sun angles stopped increasing right now, PDX would have Juneau's climate by the start of Trump's second term.Uh, okay, but the system’s response to it isn’t. The large scale, internally-integrated boundary conditions present at solar minimum will determine the effect it has. And those boundary conditions are a set by the preceding equilibrative responses to earlier forcings/boundary states which could be either similar or dissimilar, structurally speaking. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 If we are planning on freezing the Earth on its axis... can we wait for 5 months? Thanks!After all, everything revolves around Tim! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Uh, okay, but the system’s response to it isn’t. The macroscale boundary conditions present at solar minimum will determine the effect it has. And those boundary conditions are a set by the preceding equilibrative responses to earlier forcings/boundary states which could be either similar or dissimilar, structurally speaking.Yes, I am sure it isn’t always a perfectly linear response. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 After all, everything revolves around Tim! Bitter man! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Would be pretty incredible if PDX ends up warmer for the second half of the month than the first (compared to average). It at least has a shot if we can eviscerate next week's trough a bit more... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theiceman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 You have a long weather forum memory, man. That initial “ice age” thread I made (while high as a teenager) was over six years ago. I think it was back in November 2011. Either way, bringing it up now feels like typical Dewey lawyering.I never post here, just lurk for long range hints, but I have to say finding that specific thread back in like 2013 was a big part of what got me interested in climatology/atmos dynamics when I was also a drugged up young adult (stims and weather mix incredibly well lol). Something about how you wrote it up just made it seem obscure/unexplored in an interesting way. I owe my academic career to your teenage self m8. Doesn't matter if it was accurate or not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Yes, I am sure it isn’t always a perfectly linear response.Yeah. It’s like, if you shake a flag pole at it’s resonance frequency, you can amplify the resonance and possibly break the flag pole. However, if you shake it just as violently outside it’s resonance frequency, very little will happen. Now, imagine that the person shaking the flagpole (the Sun/orbital cycles/etc) change how they shake the flagpole, and also the flagpole itself (Earth) changes its own resonance frequency to protect itself (various climatic feedbacks that sustains quasi-stable boundary states). Uh oh! This is actually very complicated stuff. There is nothing linear about the climate system. Nothing even close to linear, actually. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Would be pretty incredible if PDX ends up warmer for the second half of the month than the first (compared to average). It at least has a shot if we can eviscerate next week's trough a bit more... GFS is leading the way on that. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Bitter man!I'm actually not bitter at all. You just deserve being called out quite often. Glad I'm here to make that happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 We might not even see 30s out of that "trough" at this rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I'm actually not bitter at all. You just deserve being called out quite often. Glad I'm here to make that happen. I think we all agree that he is cruisin for a mod preview bruisin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 GFS is leading the way on that.1996. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I'm actually not bitter at all. You just deserve being called out quite often. Glad I'm here to make that happen. You are bitter. Can't hide it. But obviously it is important to call me out when we are talking about freezing the Earth on its axis. Bitter man. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I think we all agree that he is cruisin for a mod preview bruisin.I agree. This beautiful rainy weather is helping to fuel the fire Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I never post here, just lurk for long range hints, but I have to say finding that specific thread back in like 2013 was a big part of what got me interested in climatology/atmos dynamics when I was also a drugged up young adult (stims and weather mix incredibly well lol). Something about how you wrote it up just made it seem obscure/unexplored in an interesting way. I owe my academic career to your teenage self m8. Doesn't matter if it was accurate or not.Thank you! Haha, his honestly made my day. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I think we all agree that he is cruisin for a mod preview bruisin. I apologize for joking about waiting 5 months to freeze the Earth's axis. It was very insensitive of me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 We might not even see 30s out of that "trough" at this rate. I'm not sold on that quite yet. Despite the overall lameness of this pattern, the airmass moving in tonight is by some measures the coldest we have seen this winter. Wouldn't take much for PDX to be in the upper 30s by tomorrow morning even without much in the way of clearing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I'm not sold on that quite yet. Despite the overall lameness of this pattern, the airmass moving in tonight is by some measures the coldest we have seen this winter. Wouldn't take much for PDX to be in the upper 30s by tomorrow morning even without much in the way of clearing. The least warm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I'm not sold on that quite yet. Despite the overall lameness of this pattern, the airmass moving in tonight is by some measures the coldest we have seen this winter. Wouldn't take much for PDX to be in the upper 30s by tomorrow morning even without much in the way of clearing.#39watch2018#NPS Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z is going to be better than the 12z, guys. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I agree. This beautiful rainy weather is helping to fuel the fire Right. You are trolling. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 #39watch2018#NPS Seems pretty pathetic coming off the three week arctic blast earlier in the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 You are bitter. Can't hide it. But obviously it is important to call me out when we are talking about freezing the Earth on its axis. Bitter man. Bitter Bryant. Lyin' Ted. Crooked Hillary. #covfefe 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Dirty ridge signal! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 GFS does not appear to be on board... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z is absolute trash in the LR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z keeps the AR on Sunday/Monday aimed mainly at Vancouver Island/BC before quickly dropping it south. That's kind of nice.That would be nice for the mountains. I have been noticing the same trend on the ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z is absolute trash in the LR.Don't get too flippant... #wizardsarewatching Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Don't get too flippant... #wizardsarewatching I will need to see the ensembles, Euro, GEM and EPS all break down before fully giving up hope. Just as you will continue to keep the candle lit for another schweaty schummer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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