January Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

#2006

 

This month has been a dead ringer.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

As we already knew, the GEFS says, "NOPE, but I hope you liked the Op run. Better luck next time, next Winter haha!" not cool to rub it in like that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wait. I jumped the gun. Colder members showing up after Day 10-12.

[ShawniganLake]

[Gradient Keeper]

E74AB173-E95B-44E1-9304-6C0A7A6B5A07.png

Well the GEM Ensembles improved. Hmmm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the GEM Ensembles improved. Hmmm.

Bigly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't really look at it as a WA vs OR thing. Take a look at the lowland sites with good records both winters. And I don't really consider eastern OR/WA as part of the same climate region as the western lowlands, so I'm just looking at those.

 

SEA

 

2008-09: 23.3"

2016-17: 11.2"

 

Seattle WFO

 

2008-09: 11.9"

2016-17: 3.6"

 

Cedar Lake (King County foothills)

2008-09: 125.4"

2016-17: 104.3"

 

Clearbrook

2008-09: 32.5"

2016-17: 38.7"

 

PDX

 

2008-09: 24.2"

2016-17: 11.2"

 

Silver Creek Falls

 

2008-09: 45"

2016-17: 38"

 

Dallas

 

2008-09: 7.5"

2016-17: 8.9"

 

Corvallis

 

2008-09: 5.4"

2016-17: 3.3"

 

Cottage Grove

 

2008-09: 6.4"

2016-17: 3.3"

 

They were pretty close some places, but with others 2008-09 blew 2016-17 away.

Yeah silver falls probably actually had more snow than that in 08-09. The number for last winter is probably fairly accurate for the park. It’s about more than just snow though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That Dallas number from last winter is way to low, they did better than almost anyone in the valley last year, probably closer to 20”.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF initializing. Any improvements you think? I'll say unfortunately no, or rather negligible.

[liquidsnow]

00z ECMWF initializing. Any improvements you think? I'll say unfortunately no, or rather negligible.

Define "improvement."

[Gradient Keeper]

Define "improvement."

Ridge further west, stronger, amplified, and merges with high latitude block.

[Deweydog]

This month has been a dead ringer.

 

MonthTDeptUS.png

 

Jan06TDeptUS.png

Maps!

[Phil]

The clown range 00z GFS actually...goes there.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018013000&fh=48

[Phil]

Amplified phase 7/warm pool MJOs are notorious for bombarding the vortex. So, it’s possible..

 

Theoretically, it’s the only plausible way to cut short what would otherwise be a 4-week ridge-fest.

[Phil]

Usually with wave-2 the mother vortice gets sent into Eurasia while the daughter vortice ends up over North America. The 00z GFS would be an unusual progression by historical standards.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 7. NOPE

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018013000/168/500h_anom.na.png

[seattleweatherguy]

Usually with wave-2 the mother vortice gets sent into Eurasia while the daughter vortice ends up over North America. The 00z GFS would be an unusual progression by historical standards.

And our only chance?

[Front Ranger]

Maps!

#lostwithouthem

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-9 trying to go somewhere

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018013000/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

Day 8-9 trying to go somewhere

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018013000/216/500h_anom.na.png

The cold won’t come anywhere close this run. Coupled baratropic PV w/ mass displaced poleward too far upstream.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10  close

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018013000/240/500h_anom.na.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro looks better.

[Gradient Keeper]

Rob Grimes: I almost get a sense that models might flip quickly to a cold pattern. Am I expecting this? No.

· Reply · 7hours ago

 

 Improved 00z ECMWF Op, Big improvements 00z GEM Ensembles. 00z GFS Op VERY GOOD. 00z GEFS improved after day 10-12. Keep this going for 2-3 more days and I may go ALL-IN.

 

--

6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes

[Deweydog]

Rob Grimes: I almost get a sense that models might flip quickly to a cold pattern. Am I expecting this? No.

 

· Reply · 7hours ago

 

Improved 00z ECMWF Op, Big improvements 00z GEM Ensembles. 00z GFS Op VERY GOOD. 00z GEFS improved after day 10-12. Keep this going for 2-3 more days and I may go ALL-IN.

 

--

6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes

Wha happens when you go all in?

[TT-SEA]

Another interesting stat... SEA has had rain on 23 out of the last 24 days.   That one dry day on the 14th broke up the streak or we would be approaching the January 2006 record for consecutive days with rain by next week.     

[TT-SEA]

Rob Grimes: I almost get a sense that models might flip quickly to a cold pattern. Am I expecting this? No.

 

· Reply · 7hours ago

 

 Improved 00z ECMWF Op, Big improvements 00z GEM Ensembles. 00z GFS Op VERY GOOD. 00z GEFS improved after day 10-12. Keep this going for 2-3 more days and I may go ALL-IN.

 

--

6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes

 

 

Certainly looks like we are still in the game here.  

[Phil]

Rob Grimes: I almost get a sense that models might flip quickly to a cold pattern. Am I expecting this? No.

 

· Reply · 7hours ago

 

Improved 00z ECMWF Op, Big improvements 00z GEM Ensembles. 00z GFS Op VERY GOOD. 00z GEFS improved after day 10-12. Keep this going for 2-3 more days and I may go ALL-IN.

 

--

6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes

Don’t get sucked in, man. False retrogressions in the modeling are commonplace when the PV column is displaced below 65N in Canada. Unless that motherf**ker gets taken out by a perfectly timed wave-2, its looking pretty grim.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wha happens when you go all in?

Insanity. No sleep. Track every model run. Post every image of the GFS every 6 hr frame, GEM, ECMWF, NAM, GEFS, CMCE, EPS, 500mb Composite Analogs for every run. Constant model comparisons from a previous run. Create numerous animated GIFs. Take the straws I was grasping previously and put them back in the cupboard. Call Bi-Mart, WalMart, Lowes, Home Depot to see if snow shovels are on sale as well as mittens, gloves, stocking caps, scarfs, ice treads for boots. Go to the store to stock up on milk, milk duds, bread, rice, chinese food, pizza, napkins, kleenex, paper plates, batteries, water, pop. Winterize all the windows, doors, vents, car. Not much really from the usual.

 

--

12z GFS in 8 hours 17 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

The cold won’t come anywhere close this run. Coupled baratropic PV w/ mass displaced poleward too far upstream.

Looks close to me.

[Phil]

Looks close to me.

Here’s D10. How many times have we seen this in the clown range?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Don’t get sucked in, man. False retrogressions in the modeling are commonplace when the PV column is displaced below 65N in Canada. Unless that motherf**ker gets taken out by a perfectly timed wave-2, its looking pretty grim.

That's why I said I'd like to see 2 to probably 3 days of solid model consistency and ensemble support.

 

--

6z GFS in 2 hours 11 minutes

[luvssnow_spokane]

Insanity. No sleep. Track every model run. Post every image of the GFS every 6 hr frame, GEM, ECMWF, NAM, GEFS, CMCE, EPS, 500mb Composite Analogs for every run. Constant model comparisons from a previous run. Create numerous animated GIFs. Take the straws I was grasping previously and put them back in the cupboard. Call Bi-Mart, WalMart, Lowes, Home Depot to see if snow shovels are on sale as well as mittens, gloves, stocking caps, scarfs, ice treads for boots. Go to the store to stock up on milk, milk duds, bread, rice, chinese food, pizza, napkins, kleenex, paper plates, batteries, water, pop. Winterize all the windows, doors, vents, car. Not much really from the usual.

 

--

12z GFS in 8 hours 17 minutes

Lol... u may want to add toilet paper to your list. Specially when you crap yourself when the models go ape arctic cold crazy..

[Gradient Keeper]

Lol... u may want to add toilet paper to your list. Specially when you crap yourself when the models go ape s**t arctic cold crazy..

I KNEW I forgot something! Also, tranquilizers.

[Phil]

Reverse psychology, guys. Pretend there’s nothing coming and don’t look at the models, and you’ll get smashed. Usually works for me, lol.

[Deweydog]

Reverse psychology, guys. Pretend there’s nothing coming and don’t look at the models, and you’ll get smashed. Always works for me, lol.

Maybe we should predict a three week megablast® for the east coast?

[ShawniganLake]

Here’s D10. How many times have we seen this in the clown range?

 

Not sure. You said it wouldn’t come close this run. Looks close to me. Not sure what else to say.

[Phil]

Not sure. You said it wouldn’t come close this run. Looks close to me. Not sure what else to say.

It’s several hundred miles away.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At the very least it gives us something interesting to track.

[Bryant]

Lol... u may want to add toilet paper to your list. Specially when you crap yourself when the models go ape s**t arctic cold crazy..

But you said winter was over?

[HighlandExperience]