January Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

Lol I’m sure the pass will still see snow. I bet will occasionally see snow in the lowlands. But snowfalls like 2008 might be distant memory. Hope I’m wrong.

If there’s one thing we humans excel at, it’s hubris, and failing to learn from past mistakes. So, it should come as no surprise that ~ 98% of all scientific theories put forth through human history have been disproven. Heck, the laws of physics themselves have been rewritten several times over.

 

So, don’t be surprised when Mother Nature throws humanity yet another curveball. So, as usual, we’ll take our dose of humble pie, try to figure things out, then the herd mentality will take over again and the cycle will repeat itself.

[Winterdog]

If there’s one thing we humans excel at, it’s hubris, and failing to learn from past mistakes. So, it should come as no surprise that ~ 98% of all scientific theories put forth through human history have been disproven. Heck, the laws of physics themselves have been rewritten several times over.

 

So, don’t be surprised when Mother Nature throws humanity yet another curveball. So, as usual, we’ll take our dose of humble pie, try to figure things out, then the herd mentality will take over again and the cycle will repeat itself.

Captain Kirk.. out.

[Phil]

Let’s not forget that Earth was experiencing a “hothouse” climate 15 million years ago (ice free poles) while CO^2 was in the tank (200-280ppm).

 

And the first glaciation (dropped sea levels 100ft, temps colder than today) occurred while CO^2 was a whopping 1100ppm.

 

[Phil]

When you get down to it, these catastrophic AGW scenarios are pure fiction. There’s zero evidence for significant CO^2 forcing of climate anywhere in the paleoclimatogy.

 

The majority of climate models are tuned to the ice core paleo data by assuming that CO^2 was responsible for over 50% of the deglacial warming.

[Phil]

What’s hilarious is that we tune the model physics to produce a powerful CO^2 forcing/feedback loop to pull the climate out of glaciation (high albedo, low CO^2), yet during warm interglacials (high CO^2, low albedo) this feedback loop needs to be terminated via parameterization to avoid throwing the system into a hothouse state. All this without any statistically significant relationship between CO^2 and temperature in the long period paleo data.

[liquidsnow]

So Phil doesn't believe in AGW?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS is broken.

[ShawniganLake]

The GFS is broken.

Timbits is broken. But the GFS is a pile of hot garbage anyway

[Eastvanisle]

Rain has let up some here. 1.89” on the day though.

still coming down hard here- up to 63 mm

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The GFS is broken.

Working for me.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really hope Jim is ok.

[ShawniganLake]

[BLI snowman]

70+ in early February would be nice.

 

If this winter is going to totally suck, it may as well be sunny and pleasant from here on out.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

MJVentrice posted this back in early January. It turns out there was a lot of truth to it.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/mjventrice/status/949394417718366209?lang=en

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Lousy stretches popup in our climate history all the time. Looking back, 73/74 - 78/79 was pretty lousy here, same with 99/00 - 02/03, 65/66 - 67/68. Those were large gaps similar to the 2012/2013 - 2015/2016 we just experienced. Last year was decent, statistically speaking it wouldn't be uncommon to have a dud this year followed by something better next.

[luvssnow_spokane]

CA09A408-2153-4C00-9D15-134E1EACB439.png

That would be easily close to 70 for many days!’ Yes!!’ Bring it!!!

[Dave]

Looks like warm and dry is in our future, which I'll gladly take. Tim should really be here to appreciate the upcoming anomalous warmth.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

MJVentrice posted this back in early January. It turns out there was a lot of truth to it.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/mjventrice/status/949394417718366209?lang=en

 

We're nearly halfway through that and the pattern hasn't looked remotely similar to that so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lousy stretches popup in our climate history all the time. Looking back, 73/74 - 78/79 was pretty lousy here, same with 99/00 - 02/03, 65/66 - 67/68. Those were large gaps similar to the 2012/2013 - 2015/2016 we just experienced. Last year was decent, statistically speaking it wouldn't be uncommon to have a dud this year followed by something better next.

 

I didn't think we would have a complete winter like we did last year, but I did think there was a decent chance of a decent arctic outbreak. We are going to be heading into next winter overdue.

[Jesse]

Really hope Jim is ok.

He PM’d me earlier and said he’s taking a break. He is pretty offended at the smugness of people like luvssnow who don’t have a tenth of his knowledge but act like they knew better all along just because their pessimistic whining happened to be right.

 

He also says he believes a February 1962 or 1993 progression is still on the table, with ridging early in the month followed by a colder last half. Although he also didn’t rule out a complete Niña disaster 1933-34 style.

[ShawniganLake]

Lousy stretches popup in our climate history all the time. Looking back, 73/74 - 78/79 was pretty lousy here, same with 99/00 - 02/03, 65/66 - 67/68. Those were large gaps similar to the 2012/2013 - 2015/2016 we just experienced. Last year was decent, statistically speaking it wouldn't be uncommon to have a dud this year followed by something better next.

I generally agree with this but not sure about that 70’s stretch on a regional level. The only real dud winter in there for Shawnigan was 76-77. All the others were relatively snowy.

[ShawniganLake]

He PM’d me earlier and said he’s taking a break. He is pretty offended at the smugness of people like luvssnow who don’t have a tenth of his knowledge but act like they knew better all along just because their pessimistic whining happened to be right.

 

He also says he believes a February 1962 or 1993 progression is still on the table, with ridging early in the month followed by a colder last half. Although he also didn’t rule out a complete Niña disaster 1933-34 style.

I totally get where Jim is coming from. But at times he can be a little offensive himself. Especially if people don’t fall in line with his line of thinking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He PM’d me earlier and said he’s taking a break. He is pretty offended at the smugness of people like luvssnow who don’t have a tenth of his knowledge but act like they knew better all along just because their pessimistic whining happened to be right.

 

He also says he believes a February 1962 or 1993 progression is still on the table, with ridging early in the month followed by a colder last half. Although he also didn’t rule out a complete Niña disaster 1933-34 style.

 

Sounds like he is projecting your moral superiority. 

[Phil]

So Phil doesn't believe in AGW?

No, there’s definitely some AGW component. What I’m saying is the positive feedback loops in the modeling are a load of bunkum. There’s more evidence for a negative feedback aggregate than a positive one.

[Jesse]

I totally get where Jim is coming from. But at times he can be a little offensive himself. Especially if people don’t fall in line with his line of thinking.

That’s absolutely true.

[Jesse]

Sounds like he is projecting your moral superiority.

Umadbro?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen's new blog post is worth a read. He is not ready to stick a fork in winter yet. 

 

http://www.kptv.com/link/492613/fox-12-weather-blog

[ShawniganLake]

That’s absolutely true.

Having said that, he has a lot of good info to add here at times. I like a lot of his historical knowledge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Umadbro?

 

No, I just found your post humorous. Not sure whether you had an actual conversation with Jim or if you were quoting yourself and attributing it to Jim. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

He PM’d me earlier and said he’s taking a break. He is pretty offended at the smugness of people like luvssnow who don’t have a tenth of his knowledge but act like they knew better all along just because their pessimistic whining happened to be right.

 

He also says he believes a February 1962 or 1993 progression is still on the table, with ridging early in the month followed by a colder last half. Although he also didn’t rule out a complete Niña disaster 1933-34 style.

Lol! I never was smug. I shared what I thought and I only warned him to not be so sure with model runs showing things at 10 days. It is common sense more than anything. I only disagreed and never rubbed it in, insulted him, called him names or said he was dumb. I just disagreed and it was not negative just seeing the progression and outcome differently. I could care less about being right and am said we did not get hammered...

 

The negativity you state was more or less sarcasm and may come across smug and I am sorry. Never my intention and I am so so sorry. I just saw the outcome very very different for a variety of reasons.

[Phil]

We're nearly halfway through that and the pattern hasn't looked remotely similar to that so far.

The mean will probably end up looking somewhat similar to that, though.

 

This is a slower/deeper MJO wave than was originally modeled (it’s a beast), so the strongest western ridging will probably take place during the second half of February. The tropical forcing isn’t all-in for ridge west/trough east until Feb 10th onward.

[Jesse]

No, I just found your post humorous. Not sure whether you had an actual conversation with Jim or if you were quoting yourself and attributing it to Jim.

It was a real conversation.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I generally agree with this but not sure about that 70’s stretch on a regional level. The only real dud winter in there for Shawnigan was 76-77. All the others were relatively snowy.

 

There were a few "snowy" winters in that stretch, but I didn't count winters with big snow falls unaccompanied by a significantly cold airmass, particularly the big overrunning events with a snow-rain transition. The airmasses were wimpy for that stretch and down here there wasn't even much snow.

[Jesse]

so the strongest western ridging will probably take place during the second half of February.

I feel like you don’t know our climate well enough to realize what an insane statement this is.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The mean will probably end up looking somewhat similar to that, though.

 

This is a slower/deeper MJO wave than was originally modeled (it’s a beast), so the strongest western ridging will probably take place during the second half of February. The tropical forcing isn’t all-in for ridge west/trough east until Feb 10th onward.

Exactly that!! Something I saw as s possibility but am still learning MJO but shared it a while back. Which I believe will lead to a chilly March with retrograde of that strong block as things reset.... possibly late February...

[Phil]

I feel like you don’t know our climate well enough to realize what an insane statement that is.

It’s not about “your climate”, in this case. Based on seasonal MJO climatology, the strongest ridging over western North America is favored to occur during the third week of February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Having said that, he has a lot of good info to add here at times. I like a lot of his historical knowledge.

 

I love climate data and studying historical weather events. But you can't look at PNW events from the 50s or 19th century and think our climate is capable of that today. That is one of the places where he goes wrong. He thinks if the stars align we will have a January 1950 again or a "throwback" winter. Instead he needs to realize events like December 2008, January 2017, 1992-93, December 96' (Seattle-north), etc... are our high water marks. Or a winter containing a singular event such as Dec 2013. Not really sure our present climate state could even support a Dec 90', Dec 98', Feb 89' type event...I would like to think it could happen, but each year we get more and more distance from those events...

 

I think instead of talking about what our climate IS capable of he should say WAS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s not about “your climate”, in this case. Based on seasonal MJO climatology, the strongest ridging over western North America is favored to occur during the third week of February.

 

I would really hate to see what this forum looks like in 3 weeks if this statement verifies...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The mean will probably end up looking somewhat similar to that, though.

 

This is a slower/deeper MJO wave than was originally modeled (it’s a beast), so the strongest western ridging will probably take place during the second half of February. The tropical forcing isn’t all-in for ridge west/trough east until Feb 10th onward.

 

That mega Greenland block and scorching Yukon haven't been factors so far and don't appear to feature prominently for at least the next week and a half. The forecast period there ends on Feb 15th so it's likely to bust big time even if it leads to little perceivable difference in the PNW.

[Jesse]

I would really hate to see what this forum looks like in 3 weeks if this statement verifies...

Probably no worse than it is right now, as long as you don’t go back into troll mode.