NH4NU Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just because a model is consistent now doesn't mean it will stay consistent. Now, I hope GFS stays consistent cuz it has 8" for me. Like I said earlier, though, I'm not buying NAM's and HRRR's idea of a slot. The DPs are literally gonna be the exact same as the temps.I don’t disagree with this at all. But if you haven’t noticed, I am all in with GFS haha and if it cuts down totals and or tracks E/SE, it is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I don’t disagree with this at all. But if you haven’t noticed, I am all in with GFS haha and if it cuts down totals and or tracks E/SE, it is over.If GFS is wrong this forum is gonna have a ton more Snowlover76s. And as a result a ton more Moneys. So everyone had better be rooting for us lol. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 RGEM http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018011012/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS is further SE as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 heaviest precip is right along the 850 therm. overall weaker than 6z run too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Greatttttt. GFS is Southeast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS is inching closer and closer to DSM. Probably won't quite get there, but it's not that far away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Glorified fropa. Still be fun in some areas. Epic string of winters continues 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 LOL dear Lord. Why am I not one bit shocked. If we all had a dollar for each time the mid-day updates day before storm goes to s**t, we'd be on an island together somewhere! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Glorified fropa. Still be fun in some areas. Epic string of winters continues18.4” below normal here already this season. And that number might go UP after this ‘storm’. Haha. That’s how bad it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS is inching closer and closer to DSM. Probably won't quite get there, but it's not that far away. So this benefits no one lol it's literally a split between Nebraska posters and Iowa posters. Prepare for the storm, of Nebraskans, complaining of a lack of one. If this is true, that is. Maybe LNK_WX and I can jog on over to Falls City and push this thing north ourselves. EDIT: HRRR and Hi-rez NAM are lined up perfectly through 18hr as well. Not sure if it means much but might mean the NAM was right with the E trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 let the meltdowns begin... Sorry to all those who had their hopes up, but remember it's just snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 18.4” below normal here already this season. And that number might go UP after this ‘storm’. Haha. That’s how bad it is.Might as well shoot for futility records. Goes to show how pointless trying to pinpoint seasonal forecast is unless there is a super sized driving force like el nino 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 This run of the GFS is really close to hitting James good. It's even got over 2" for DSM this run. And we're still 18-24 hours away from most people seeing the start, so future runs could shift even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I honestly don't know what breaks my heart more, tracking snowstorms or Husker football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Meltdowns should have taken place last night. Anyone that has a meltdown this morning hasn’t been paying attention , or has been in denial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Wow i give up. All the NAM models and the GFS show an inch or less here. Going completely how everything else has gone the last several winters, looks good for a few days prior then boom BUST. And the band keeps narrowing as it heads east so i wouldn't get excited Iowa posters. its a HEART BREAKER Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 They are going to need a good wet 5"-6". Terrible year so far in most of Wisconsin. http://dx1webcamhosting.com/lolrec/trail.jpg Lando is bad right now....got friends in the Mercer area atm ans its a little better. This should be enough to make it enjoyable and get to the UP if need be. Wow, trail riding looks like mud riding..ugly Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Wash rinse repeat. 4" Winter. It'll be 60s in February. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Might as well shoot for futility records. Goes to show how pointless trying to pinpoint seasonal forecast is unless there is a super sized driving force like el ninoI’m all for futility records at this point. I’m shooting for a total of 20” this winter. Edit: make it 19.9”. Sounds better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Well, on the bright side the Friday clipper looks like . I guess this is better we know 18 hours before instead of having a blizzard warning issued and have a nowcast bust. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 if it makes anyone feel better, snow starved locations like Erie, PA are going to get pounded... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 This run of the GFS is really close to hitting James good. It's even got over 2" for DSM this run. And we're still 18-24 hours away from most people seeing the start, so future runs could shift even more.Grizzcoat will be happy with the run. He's NW or WNW of DSM by 20-25 miles. I'm on SW side of town...so not as good but have more to watch than I thought a few days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 if it makes anyone feel better, snow starved locations like Erie, PA are going to get pounded... Good! They need it. Rooting for them to fill up their record low snowpack. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 ....think I may have called.the frontal passage scenario on Sat or Sunday..but don't have time to dig. The trend/New reality continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 **** this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 The good news is it's going to be below zero again, bc I did miss the disgusting cold. C'mon springtime, get here already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Okay I just looked at the GFS run. Still not AWFUL, especially considering I live in far SE Lincoln. The smallest curveball can still bring 6". Still not believing the entire dryness thing that the American models are flirting with. SE trend can go **** itself though and I hope it stops. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I am following the short term models RAP and HRRR. I do fairly well in Central Nebraska with these, 2-3 inches or a little more. For those with more knowledge than myself, are there other short term models to look at, or are these all right? Thanks for the information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I am following the short term models RAP and HRRR. I do fairly well in Central Nebraska with these, 2-3 inches or a little more. For those with more knowledge than myself, are there other short term models to look at, or are these all right? Thanks for the information.RGEM is an ******* to Lincoln, surrounds us with snow. Didn't check how it does your way but it was posted here earlier. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 canadian http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018011012/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I am following the short term models RAP and HRRR. I do fairly well in Central Nebraska with these, 2-3 inches or a little more. For those with more knowledge than myself, are there other short term models to look at, or are these all right? Thanks for the information. Way to far out to put any faith in the RAP or HRRR. They fail within 1 hour of impact Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 It's hard to tell from the HRRR only going out to 18 hr, but it looks like it's trying to setup the convective band a bit further west??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 It's hard to tell from the HRRR only going out to 18 hr, but it looks like it's trying to setup the convective band a bit further west???You will drive yourself nuts extrapolating the 18hr hrrr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Way to far out to put any faith in the RAP or HRRR. They fail within 1 hour of impact He's also way further W than any of us, so I'd take the RAP and HRRR over any long range model at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Wash rinse repeat. 4" Winter. It'll be 60s in February.We’re making a run at 60 here in Chicago tomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 He's also way further W than any of us, so I'd take the RAP and HRRR over any long range model at this point.3km NAM is not a long range model. The Hrrr doesn't have precip breaking out until like 6pm tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Wow, trail riding looks like mud riding..uglyCould always be worse... this is what they looked like last February when we planned on taking some guests up riding for Presidents Day weekend. I ended up sitting out in a beer garden with shorts and flip flops all day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I'm sure money will be in here soon to remind Nebraska posters it doesn't snow here so we should quit our bitching Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 We’re making a run at 60 here in Chicago tomorrowNice! I’d take that rather than temps of 7F by noon and new bare ground I’ll have. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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