February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not bad.0C5A1F78-E721-41BF-83F5-36140717711B.gif

Not bad if you live in western Nebraska. D**n, tonights models have sucked with the heaviest going just west. It's always something

[Minny_Weather]

Nice totals on GFS, but I think they're overblown with the rate of snow we'd be getting.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nice totals on GFS, but I think they're overblown with the rate of snow we'd be getting.

Theres no way all these clippers go that far south and west. We all know these will head back east and north anytime now as this is not the normal track for them lol. especially considering that the push of cold air isn't even that severe to force these that far south.

[Minny_Weather]

Theres no way all these clippers go that far south and west. We all know these will head back east and north anytime now as this is not the normal track for them lol. especially considering that the push of cold air isn't even that severe to force these that far south.

It's more of a frontal snow. I don't think a frontal passage will produce the totals that GFS is showing. Nice eye candy though. I might download it to look at in the Summer.

[hlcater]

Theres no way all these clippers go that far south and west. We all know these will head back east and north anytime now as this is not the normal track for them lol. especially considering that the push of cold air isn't even that severe to force these that far south.

Agreed. The trend with clippers this season has been northeast as we get closer and with reasons you cited I don't see why these won't do the same. Although the magnitude of the trend varies, every single clipper this season ended up NE of where it was modeled 5-7 days out. Although I think the GFS is also probably overdoing it with both the intensity and frequency of those systems as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

Can Nebraskans just stare at this GFS run and dream? Nice eye candy. I have seen these in years past and they don’t materialize.

[CentralNebWeather]

I stand corrected, one materialized on February 1, 2016 for me of 18 inches. Keep hope alive.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Also, I'm gonna do a bit of a rant here..I'll be damned if I have to watch western Nebraska get another huge snow this winter and just get clipped here again. 

[Grizzcoat]

Theres no way all these clippers go that far south and west. We all know these will head back east and north anytime now as this is not the normal track for them lol. especially considering that the push of cold air isn't even that severe to force these that far south.

Agree- the UKIE is 550+ miles further N then GFS at hour 96.

[Minny_Weather]

If I worked for an NWS office and I had to make official forecasts for this I'd have an aneurysm.

[james1976]

GFS IA Snowdome haha

[Minny_Weather]

GFS IA Snowdome haha

Oof. That looks exactly like what we had on 18z.

[Minny_Weather]

15" from a clipper train in Lincoln LOL. That's hilarious.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

15" from a clipper train in Lincoln LOL. That's hilarious.

9 inches...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018013000/186/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Minny_Weather]

9 inches...

Yeeowch.

 

 

Still, even 9 inches just seems way overdone to me tbh. Seeing as we've only seen one clipper with 4"+ amounts in recent history, I don't have a good feeling about these numbers.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yeeowch.

 

GFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_186.png

 

Still, even 9 inches just seems way overdone to me tbh. Seeing as we've only seen one clipper with 4"+ amounts in recent history, I don't have a good feeling about these numbers.

I like how far south this is going right now, means the eventually as we get closer it will come to its senses and trend more north and east as most clippers do and we will be in a better position.

[Tabitha]

Theres no way all these clippers go that far south and west. We all know these will head back east and north anytime now as this is not the normal track for them lol. especially considering that the push of cold air isn't even that severe to force these that far south.

 

But are you not the one who always says they will come south????

 

 

 

Now I guess i don't look so stupid now for saying storms have always trended back south this winter! And the strongest part of the deformation band is east of us in western iowa...like I also mentioned, i hope that doesn't happen lol. We shall see what happens next.

[Minny_Weather]

But are you not the one who always says they will come south????

Clippers are a completely different animal than CO lows.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

But are you not the one who always says they will come south????

Wow how long did it take you to look back for that quote lol. Clippers are a completely different breed of a storm system

[Tabitha]

Clippers are a completely different animal than CO lows.

 

I'm not so sure this is a clipper; as I see no weakness in the atmosphere progged over any of the Canadian Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Manitoba, or Saskatchewan) towards the end of the week.

 

What I do see is a general trough over the Rockies that might ultimately lead to a cyclonic development in the vicinity of Colorado...with High Pressure across most of central Canada.

 

In fact, at Hour 105, the ICON has a weak 1010 Low over Alamosa, Colorado; trying to organize.

 

The Low in question actually has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska; coming ashore in British Columbia.  A clipper will almost always have its genesis over land; usually in the lee of the Rockies / between & betwixt the mild Pacific air west of the mountains; and the arctic air that is too shallow to make it any further west than the eastern slopes. The term "British Columbia Clipper" just doesn't sound right; as it lacks the requisite panache.

 

A genuine clipper would see the cyclonic disturbance sweeping through the Dakotas. 

[Tabitha]

Wow how long did it take you to look back for that quote lol. Clippers are a completely different breed of a storm system

 

About 5 seconds; as The Eyes of Tabitha see everything; and Her Mind forgets nothing.

 

As for the difference between the one and the other; rest assured I am well-versed in the finer points of synoptic meteorology.

[Grizzcoat]

 Euro is more N and E....

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS is way N and E at least with first system.  Someone on here mentioned a N and E shift..... Well that appears to be the trend at least.

[Grizzcoat]

I will add that PP at accuweather stated the other day that looking at surface maps is going to be pointless in this pattern until the said system is within an earshot. 

[Tom]

I will add that PP at accuweather stated the other day that looking at surface maps is going to be pointless in this pattern until the said system is within an earshot. 

If anything, at this juncture, I'd ride the ensembles and just watch trends over the next few days.  Just hoping this weekend system doesn't fizzle out.  I'm encouraged to see the GEFS/GEPS and EPS holding steady.

 

 

[Tom]

Euro/GFS comparison thru Sun pm...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

My local forecast has a 70% of snow Saturday night and a 70% chance of snow Sunday. Seems high considering it is only Tuesday morning unless they are already confident. Hastings says a fluffy 1-4” but high ratios could increase that amount. We’ll see how it plays out this week. After my blizzard let down last week , I assume nothing is guaranteed until the snow is flying.

[Tom]

Looking out ahead, the active pattern is not backing off on the ensembles.  In fact, you can argue the GEFS are turning more snowier across the MW/GL's and parts of the Plains as well.  I'm starting to believe in the Feb '15 scenario, centered farther west across the Upper MW/GL's/MW region when we look back at the entire picture for this month.  As expected, the CFSv2 continues to shift the colder departures farther west and what is rather interesting to see, the AN precip anomalies are expanding out into the central Plains.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180130.201802.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201802.gif

 

 

 

 

00z GEFS strat forecasts have been very accurate in the longer range and I'm convinced that by the middle of the month, the coldest air of the season is on the table as the PV may in fact split and park itself in central Canada.  Folks, this is one of the prettiest maps if your a fan of winter.  Even if it doesn't split, this will dump the coldest air into N.A. 

 

Earlier this season, I was pondering on the idea if the Scandinavian Ridge would have any significant influence into the late winter pattern bc it was a very common feature that developed in this part of the world during Autumn as the LRC evolved.  Over the last few days, the 00z GEFS are illustrating a major SSW event across this region.  Check out this map illustration below...hello Polar Vortex!

 

 

[gosaints]

I'm not so sure this is a clipper; as I see no weakness in the atmosphere progged over any of the Canadian Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Manitoba, or Saskatchewan) towards the end of the week.

 

What I do see is a general trough over the Rockies that might ultimately lead to a cyclonic development in the vicinity of Colorado...with High Pressure across most of central Canada.

 

In fact, at Hour 105, the ICON has a weak 1010 Low over Alamosa, Colorado; trying to organize.

 

The Low in question actually has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska; coming ashore in British Columbia.  A clipper will almost always have its genesis over land; usually in the lee of the Rockies / between & betwixt the mild Pacific air west of the mountains; and the arctic air that is too shallow to make it any further west than the eastern slopes. The term "British Columbia Clipper" just doesn't sound right; as it lacks the requisite panache.

 

A genuine clipper would see the cyclonic disturbance sweeping through the Dakotas. 

Well said

[jaster220]

It is rather interesting; if you think about it...the amazing similarities between the Hungarian language & ancient Sumerian...

 

18z GFS brings some light snow into the Pioneer State towards Saturday...

 

Houdinini says that if you were truly around when the Moon was placed in orbit by unprincipled forces, you'd understand exactly why! 

[Minny_Weather]

OAX is going with chance wording for snow Sunday. That's what I'd do!

[Tony]

Euro/GFS comparison thru Sun pm...

 

Funny to see the Euro being wetter than the GFS but as we get closer in time the qpf will be less and less and maybe end up with some snow showers. I don't see much happening for us not only this weekend but also for the long range. I can also do without the frigid cold unless we have a couple feet on the ground which would only be a dream at this point. This winter has left me with a sour attitude and looking at the models does not help it any.

[CentralNebWeather]

From Gary Lezak Blog this morning:

 

Weather Discussion:

Arctic Air Watch:  A major blast of Arctic air is likely two to three times in the next three weeks

And, yes, we saw the latest trend on the models for snow in KC. There are two systems now forecast by the last two GFS model runs, and they aren’t ten days out. They are just five and seven days away. Here is the 8-day snowfall forecast from the 00z GFS model run:

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/124-613x480.png

Remember, Kansas City hasn’t had 3″ in one storm in four years. February 4th will complete four years in a row, or perhaps, maybe, could it possibly be that the streak will end right on that date!  We will go over the details in the comments section on the Weather2020 blog. We have been through this before, but as I said, something slightly different is possible as the jet stream reaches its peak strength.  The chances of snow are for Super Bowl Sunday, and then possibly a week from today as well.

[Tom]

Funny to see the Euro being wetter than the GFS but as we get closer in time the qpf will be less and less and maybe end up with some snow showers. I don't see much happening for us not only this weekend but also for the long range. I can also do without the frigid cold unless we have a couple feet on the ground which would only be a dream at this point. This winter has left me with a sour attitude and looking at the models does not help it any.

Fair enough Tony!

[Madtown]

Looks like a 1 to 2 in dumping this Sat here!

[Niko]

February is looking quite active and frigid in the Gl's region. Fun times ahead!

[NEJeremy]

Can Nebraskans just stare at this GFS run and dream? Nice eye candy. I have seen these in years past and they don’t materialize.7FCDD77D-DE95-4BDB-B1DD-750980A34038.gif

I'm staring at 2-3". Just like every other system the past 4 years

[BrianJK]

Funny to see the Euro being wetter than the GFS but as we get closer in time the qpf will be less and less and maybe end up with some snow showers. I don't see much happening for us not only this weekend but also for the long range. I can also do without the frigid cold unless we have a couple feet on the ground which would only be a dream at this point. This winter has left me with a sour attitude and looking at the models does not help it any.

 

Certainly nothing wrong with being a realist.

[Tony]

Certainly nothing wrong with being a realist.

It sure would be nice if we could get a good dumping around these parts. Been a long time

[NEJeremy]

Yeah this isn't a clipper setup. What I see is a pretty strong thermal boundary and an overrunning/upslope situation. You can see the boundary already there before the snowfall breaks out to the north of the boundary. Not to mention the energy that breaks out the snowfall is over Colorado when it happens and you can see it move in off the Pacific Ocean just north of Seattle and dives southeast along the boundary(exactly what Tabitha noticed).

You can get heavier snows with this vs a clipper setup, but the heavier snowfall seems to usually setup further south and west.

It's more of a frontal snow. I don't think a frontal passage will produce the totals that GFS is showing. Nice eye candy though. I might download it to look at in the Summer.

 

 

Wow how long did it take you to look back for that quote lol. Clippers are a completely different breed of a storm system

 

 

I'm not so sure this is a clipper; as I see no weakness in the atmosphere progged over any of the Canadian Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Manitoba, or Saskatchewan) towards the end of the week.

 

What I do see is a general trough over the Rockies that might ultimately lead to a cyclonic development in the vicinity of Colorado...with High Pressure across most of central Canada.

 

In fact, at Hour 105, the ICON has a weak 1010 Low over Alamosa, Colorado; trying to organize.

 

The Low in question actually has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska; coming ashore in British Columbia.  A clipper will almost always have its genesis over land; usually in the lee of the Rockies / between & betwixt the mild Pacific air west of the mountains; and the arctic air that is too shallow to make it any further west than the eastern slopes. The term "British Columbia Clipper" just doesn't sound right; as it lacks the requisite panache.

 

A genuine clipper would see the cyclonic disturbance sweeping through the Dakotas.