February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

This weekend system needs to be watched carefully. It has the potential to really dump some snow on several peeps here.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yeah this isn't a clipper setup. What I see is a pretty strong thermal boundary and an overrunning/upslope situation. You can see the boundary already there before the snowfall breaks out to the north of the boundary. Not to mention the energy that breaks out the snowfall is over Colorado when it happens and you can see it move in off the Pacific Ocean just north of Seattle and dives southeast along the boundary(exactly what Tabitha noticed).

You can get heavier snows with this vs a clipper setup, but the heavier snowfall seems to usually setup further south and west.

Good information.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS and CMC very active for most of Nebraska.  Hopefully something comes out of this setup.

[Minny_Weather]

12Z showing a Western Nebraska special for Sunday.

[snowstorm83]

Complete miss for Omaha/Lincoln

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GEM

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS through 186.  

[Minny_Weather]

The wave on Tuesday here looks pretty good on GFS. Same with MO and Central IL.

[gimmesnow]

GEM.png

12Z GEM

Most of these fizzle out. But I'm leaving on the 15th on a family cruise, so this one will happen :^)

[Minny_Weather]

If we get 4" by next Wednesday I'll run with it and be satisfied. Especially since that should be just enough to mess with temps a bit.

[Tom]

First glance off the 12z GFS and it’s pickjng up on the Feb 8th/9th system that I’ve been looking for. Pattern remains active. Good luck pinning down these waves this far out as it will certainly keep us model watching!

[CentralNebWeather]

First glance off the 12z GFS and it’s pickjng up on the Feb 8th/9th system that I’ve been looking for. Pattern remains active. Good luck pinning down these waves this far out as it will certainly keep us model watching!

You are right Tom.  So many small waves coming through.  One could strengthen or weaken at the last second.  A lot of now casting and radar watching in the coming week.  I was actually getting bored with the recent pattern.  Might not get much, but at least there is something to follow in the models which is encouraging.

[bud2380]

UK

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2018013012/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_144.png

[Tom]

For the 12z GEFS to see a mean 12z temp of -12F at MSP on the 13th is outstanding cold if you ask me. Wicked cold on the table.

[gosaints]

For the 12z GEFS to see a mean 12z temp of -12F at MSP on the 13th is outstanding cold if you ask me. Wicked cold on the table.

extending the phoenix trip 5 days on the front end.... Not a below average day in the extended down there

[St Paul Storm]

Wind chills on Sunday morning could be -25 to -35F. Perfect weather for Superbowl tailgating in Minneapolis. Might add a bit of snow on Saturday as well. Bring it!

 

#Boldnorth

[Tom]

extending the phoenix trip 5 days on the front end.... Not a below average day in the extended down there

Good move...have fun! You’ll have no prob getting a nice tan out there.

[gabel23]

Wind chills on Sunday morning could be -25 to -35F. Perfect weather for Superbowl tailgating in Minneapolis. Might add a bit of snow on Saturday as well. Bring it!

 

#Boldnorth

Let's think about this prop bet St. Paul; which will be higher the temp at kick-off or points scored in the first quarter?? I really want to take the score, the forecasted high is like 8! 

[St Paul Storm]

Let's think about this prop bet St. Paul; which will be higher the temp at kick-off or points scored in the first quarter?? I really want to take the score, the forecasted high is like 8!

 

Current forecast calls for 8F for a high, but the 12z GFS and GEM have 2m temps around -5F around kickoff. Take the points!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow gfs was bad lol. Missing esstern neb west north south and east

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro not great for Nebraska, better for other places.  GFS and CMC look similar so we'll see which one is correct.  

 

I am like most people, you like the one that is best for your location.  Local forecasts still calling for snow likely Saturday night and during the day on Sunday.  NWS North Platte saying a 12 hour snow. 

[BLIZZARD09]

It sure would be nice if we could get a good dumping around these parts. Been a long time

No kidding.  This is how I would describe this winter which we had such high hopes for.  The November Noshow---The December Dissapointment--The January Jilt -and most likely the Feburary Fizzle which will lead to us getting March Madness

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS up to 192 hours has so many waves coming through my area of Nebraska I have lost track. Interesting to say the least.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Really? Can it get any worse then this? Two systems go west one just barely goes east of us..what the hell. 

This is BS.

 

[Jaycee]

Really? Can it get any worse then this? Two systems go west one just barely goes east of us..what the hell.

This is BS.

 

 

I know. Especially being 192 hours out, so essentially the track is set-in-stone

 

 

/s

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings calling the weekend snow a minor to moderate event with not much wind and other waves coming after. They don’t seem overly impressed with the models.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well if we really want to go into things here, the 12z GFS had things even further south and moved them north this run. Would not be shocked to see them go even further north as we get closer.

[GDR]

[Minny_Weather]

[Andrew NE]

I think everybody knows the consensus that a big wound storm doesn't look good for anybody in our forum to start out the month. Going to be fast mover nickel and dimers. I have become content with 2" snows now so hopefully we get something out these systems in the next 5-8 days.

[Tom]

I think everybody knows the consensus that a big wound storm doesn't look good for anybody in our forum to start out the month. Going to be fast mover nickel and dimers. I have become content with 2" snows now so hopefully we get something out these systems in the next 5-8 days.

A lot of potential to add up snow totals over the next 10 days.  Those who can score a few clippers in a row will see a decent snow pack build up.  I like the looks of both the GEFS/EPS ensembles as they are in agreement that the active pattern will continue through the next 2 weeks.  They do not look that bad at all from NE east out towards the GL's.

[FV-Mike]

Skilling posted this picture to his FB. he notes it is from the " IBM Deep Thunder Model." never heard of it before but I like the look of it.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Skilling posted this picture to his FB. he notes it is from the " IBM Deep Thunder Model." never heard of it before but I like the look of it.

 

 

 

skilling.jpg

I’ve seen a met on twitter post this model on previous EC storms this season and it does pretty good picking up on the intensity of a system. This matches up well with the GEFS ensembles

[Tom]

I think tomorrow am I’ll start a Super Bowl Weekend thread...I’ll be busy Wed/Thu with family and work so I’ll try and get it done early tomorrow. I think many of us have a good shot at seeing 2-4” from this first, in a series of waves, starting this weekend.

[snowstorm83]

sunday clipper ded

[Minny_Weather]

sunday clipper ded

That's comical! The snow literally dies right before it gets to us.

[Minny_Weather]

YOU get snow! And YOU get snow! And YOU get snow!

 

Oh yeah, Lincoln, heh. I forgot about you. You can have flurries I guess.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

New GFS/CMC looks better for Omaha for some accumulating snowfall..nothing too crazy but enough to get past last years horrible snow total.

[Grizzcoat]

[Hawkeye]

This evening's runs of the GFS, Canadian, and Euro all have a solid wave passing through the region next Monday.