March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Troll.

 

I love when rain is focused with long dry periods in between. 1911 is as good as it gets. Snoqualmie Falls had just over 5 inches of rain September. Not even close to the wettest September... and it all came in 2 weeks and would have been welcomed by that point. And a white Christmas to top it off!

 

Many great winters and great summers back then.

Very enjoyable from an observed spreadsheet perspective.

[TT-SEA]

Very enjoyable from an observed spreadsheet perspective.

 

I know what good and bad years look like in the historical climate data records.   

 

1911 was awesome.   Summer of 1912 was not so great.   Big difference.  

[TT-SEA]

And we are always looking at cold and snowy periods in the historical daily records on here and everyone is drooling and imagining what it was like then.

 

You never call that out.  

 

Same thing can be done with warm season records.   You know a nice period when you see it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And we are always looking at cold and snowy periods in the historical daily records on here and everyone is drooling and imagining what it was like then.

 

You never call that out.  

 

Same thing can be done with warm season records.   You know a nice period when you see it.  

 

The 2013-2017 period certainly did not disappoint for warm weather.

[Jesse]

The sight and sound of people scraping their windows on the first day of astronomical spring is always nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The sight and sound of people scraping their windows on the first day of astronomical spring is always nice.

Now if we can have this on the first day of fall I will be really impressed.

[Jesse]

Now if we can have this on the first day of fall I will be really impressed.

I bet that would look awesome in a spreadsheet!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet that would look awesome in a spreadsheet!

 

My God it would!

[TT-SEA]

I bet that would look awesome in a spreadsheet!

 

A 55/30 day with 0.00 in precip in the spreadsheet would look like a sunny day with a cool start to me.   

 

But I bet most of those days in the past were actually socked in with clouds and drizzle though all day.   Its always bad. 

 

I can show what you August 1912 looked like if you want to see how a fairly ugly summer month looks like in the historical record.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny start!

 

[Jesse]

Sunny start!

 

Hard to believe it could be snowing in a few days.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to believe it could be snowing in a few days.

 

Not that hard to imagine... its March.  

 

It can be sunny and snow in the same week.   Even in the same day.   Sometimes even in the same hour!

[Jesse]

Those trees down there look really bare. A lot like most of the trees up here.

[HighlandExperience]

Those trees down there look really bare. A lot like most of the trees up here.

I notice most of decidious trees are still bare.

[TT-SEA]

Those trees down there look really bare. A lot like most of the trees up here.

 

Not what I saw from your Fred Meyer photo!

[Jesse]

Not what I saw from your Fred Meyer photo!

Those were bare trees. I’m not sure where you got the idea they were leafing out. I figured you were just trolling me.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

I notice most of decidious trees are still bare.

 

Same here... just took a couple pictures.   The cottonwoods are budding now and getting a greenish hue and the alders are about ready to leaf out.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim thinks buds on trees mean they are "leafing out." Though that is likely a few weeks away...

[Jesse]

I notice most of decidious trees are still bare.

Indeed. Mostly just the pink cherries and plums flowering right now, everything else is still bare.

 

But I always really like those, they look like puffs of cotton candy from a distance.

[TT-SEA]

Tim thinks buds on trees mean they are "leafing out." Though that is likely a few weeks away...

I don't believe that. There is truly bare and dormant... there is actively budding... and then there is leafing out.

 

And the weather this week will definitely stall everything again as I have said numerous times.

[TT-SEA]

Is this a variety of a cherry tree in the median on this pic from Sunday in Issaquah?   I see these all over the place and even in the woods.    They are past prime flowering and leafing out now.   

 

[Phil]

OT, but for the first time in my life, I’m experiencing freezing rain during the middle of the day in middle of March with falling temperatures. It’s freezing on the pavement too.

 

Hopefully will be over to snow in a few hours.

[TT-SEA]

OT, but for the first time in my life, I’m experiencing freezing rain during the middle of the day in March with falling temperatures. It’s freezing on the pavement too.

 

Hopefully will be over to snow in a few hours.

 

I saw coverage from the school shooting in Maryland this morning... it is really dumping rain there.   That is way south of you though.   I was surprised to see how hard it was raining there.  

[Phil]

I saw coverage from the school shooting in Maryland this morning... it is really dumping rain there. That is way south of you though. I was surprised to see how hard it was raining there.

Wow, I hadn’t even heard of that. Terrible.

 

FWIW, I live in Cabin John, in the gorge between Booze Creek and the Potomac River where it makes a left turn to the west. So still just barely inside the Beltway, but still some major climatic differences from DC/other areas east of the Fall Line.

[TT-SEA]

When you stand back farther... the fullness of the budding native trees looks more noticeable.     Definitely not looking totally dormant now.

 

[TT-SEA]

No sign whatsoever of a late month warm up on the 12z GFS.

 

 

There are some signs on the 12Z GFS this morning of a little warmth next week... at least a trend in the warmer direction.  Does not look like the wall-to-wall cold it has been showing... of course the EPS could have told you that was probably going to be wrong.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Booze Creek LOLz

[Jesse]

12z GFS shows a sunny pattern with highs in the 50s and frosty nights to close out the month. Not bad.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS shows a sunny pattern with highs in the 50s and frosty nights to close out the month. Not bad.

 

Confused... you said that was gross this week?  

[Jesse]

Confused... you said that was gross this week?

Stop going out of your way to start trouble. I already explained the comment about last week. Twice. Let it go.

[TT-SEA]

Stop going out of your way to start trouble. I already explained the comment about last week. Twice. Let it go.

 

I explain myself all the time and you constantly turn my words around just to troll.    

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ha, yeah I’m not sure where that name came from. My neighborhood/subdistrict is actually named Booze Creek Park.

 

Oh I am pretty sure I know where the name originated!

[Phil]

Oh I am pretty sure I know where the name originated!

Lol, you might be onto something there.

 

Pouring sleet now, btw. Getting close!

[Timmy]

solid 8'' here in the next 84 hours.  

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF through next Monday... looking less impressive with each run now.

 

 

 

Warm across the entire region by next Wednesday per the 12Z ECMWF... pushing 70 in Portland.

 

Then into the low 70s down there on Thurday... and probably close to 70 here by then if the 12Z run verifies.

 

I am sure the GFS ensembles are still cold from start to finish though... so it will definitely stay cold.   And the EPS is always wrong.     

[Phil]

You’d better be correct with your praise of the Euro, Tim.

 

If I don’t see 12-18”, it’s on your head. Kk?

 

[BLI snowman]

You’d better be correct with your praise of the Euro, Tim.

 

If I don’t see 12-18”, it’s on your head. Kk?

 

 

I expect the ratios there won't be that great. You'll probably see a lot of  that fall as super slushy and/or non-sticking snow. Still should get a lot, though.

[Phil]

I expect the ratios there won't be that great. You'll probably see a lot of that fall as super slushy and/or non-sticking snow. Still should get a lot, though.

Yeah, in reality I’m expecting something like 5-8”. But that’s mostly due to precip/banding worries. Profiles aloft actually look solid for ratios/dendritic growth.

 

I’m less worried about temps because there’s already a coating of ice on most surfaces, and the snow starts overnight tonight, both of which would help lay down a few inches of “foundation” snow to build on tomorrow.