March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

When you stand back farther... the fullness of the budding native trees looks more noticeable.     Definitely not looking totally dormant now.

 

 

That's what I'm seeing around here now. Cherry blossoms have been popping open for the last 3 days. 

[Geos]

Was a little frosty this morning with a 34 degree low. Probably not going to see leaves on the trees until we get into April. Although I see some hints of green on some of the low shrubs in the valley bottoms. 

[Deweydog]

When you do get leaves, I doubt they last more than six months or so.

[TT-SEA]

Was a little frosty this morning with a 34 degree low. Probably not going to see leaves on the trees until we get into April. Although I see some hints of green on some of the low shrubs in the valley bottoms. 

 

If the 12Z ECMWF is correct... and the EPS has been right all along... the leaves will start emerging pretty quickly later next week.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is definitely extending the warm spell into Easter weekend as well.  

 

[TT-SEA]

When you do get leaves, I doubt they last more than six months or so.

 

7 months... usually through October.  

[Jesse]

Looks like the EPS is generally a little slower and not as aggressive with the ridging than the operational. More like the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the EPS is generally a little slower and not as aggressive with the ridging than the operational.

 

A little slower.

 

The 12Z EPS has warm 850mb temp anomalies over us starting day 7 through the end of the run (day 15).

 

Definitely not cold and troughy through the end of the month with no sign whatsoever of any warmth. 

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 12Z EPS blended 850mb temp mean for days 10-15

 

[Phil]

Here is the 12Z EPS blended 850mb temp mean for days 10-15

 

Looks like the early-April ridge is on track. I still think it lasts until mid-April, then the pattern changes back into a fairly Niña-ish mode of operation.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the early-April ridge is on track. I still think it lasts until mid-April, then the pattern changes back into a fairly Niña-ish mode of operation.

 

 

I doubt it lasts that long.

 

And it is ever possible to have a western ridge with a Nina mode of operation?   I know it happens all the time in Ninas.   Why is every western ridge considered a Nino pattern and every trough a Nina pattern?    Seems too simplified.

[Phil]

It doubt it lasts that long.

It’s a pretty good intraseasonal pulse, so I think you’re at least looking at one week of ridging. Exact timing is never easy for me, so maybe I’m running slow. We’ll see.

[TT-SEA]

It’s a pretty good intraseasonal pulse, so I think you’re at least looking at one week of ridging. Exact timing is never easy for me, so maybe I’m running slow. We’ll see.

 

It starts in a week... if it went through the middle of April then that would be 3 weeks.     Seems very unlikely.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How long til the mods take a stand against this Tim guy for not supporting our weather preferences?!

[TT-SEA]

How long til the mods take a stand against this Tim guy for not supporting our weather preferences?!

 

 

I just like knowing where things are headed... good or bad.   

 

The EPS is usually the best tool for that... and many times I cringe when looking at the EPS because its crappy and I am sure its going to be close to correct.

[Phil]

It starts in a week... if it went through the middle of April then that would be 3 weeks. Seems very unlikely.

I think of mid-month as between the 10th-20th. So my current thinking is that it lasts until sometime in the first half of that range.

[Jesse]

How long til the mods take a stand against this Tim guy for not supporting our weather preferences?!

I don’t think there is any reason for mods to get involved. Even though you may not like them, he is just posting weather maps.

[Front Ranger]

I read mods as "models".

[TT-SEA]

I don’t think there is any reason for mods to get involved. Even though you may not like them, he is just posting weather maps.

 

He was joking.  

[Jesse]

He was joking.

He is usually serious though.

[TT-SEA]

He is usually serious though.

 

No... he is often trolling.   You have seen this firsthand like everyone else.   

[Jesse]

No... he is often trolling. You have seen this firsthand like everyone else.

I am not so sure about that. What does Mark Nelsen say?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Now I see why Jesse has gotten so offended by me over the years...For clarification about half my posts are not serious. Do you think Dewey is serious all the time too?

[TT-SEA]

Even the 18Z GFS now shows warm air arriving next Tuesday for the rest of the run. You think it would show a couple more arctic blasts and region wide snow events so people could say its going to stay cold and just ignore the EPS for a little while longer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh no! The 18z GFS supports the EURO in the long range?!!!!!

[Deweydog]

60 at PDX and an 18z disaster.

 

Bad Tuesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

60 at PDX and an 18z disaster.

 

Bad Tuesday.

 

Triggering Tuesday!

[Jesse]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

My daughter disappeared with the dog... I found her laying in the grass and enjoying the first day of spring.  I snuck up behind her to get this picture.

 

[Deweydog]

He doesn't like it when you tell him he's taking things too seriously. In fact, he takes it very seriously and finds it offensive.

 

you_find_it_offensive_i_find_it_funny.__2079884042.jpg

I have a treasure trove of private messages which say this is spot on.

[Jesse]

Wow, I am getting eaten alive today.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles aren’t terrible.

[Phil]

For anyone interested, here’s my live stream. What’s falling now is just bonus snow, really. Real stuff starts after 2AM.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&noapp=1&v=udx3rWD5KIs

[Phil]

Wow, I am getting eaten alive today.

Lol, welcome to the club. You’ll get used to it.

[Jesse]

DP of 22 at PDX seems low.

[Phil]

DP of 22 at PDX seems low.

Time to replace the sensor.

[Jesse]

Now I see why Jesse has gotten so offended by me over the years...For clarification about half my posts are not serious. Do you think Dewey is serious all the time too?

For the record, I wasn’t being serious about saying you are always serious. That whole exchange with Tim was pretty tongue in cheek. Figured that would be easier to pick up on than it was, I suppose.

[Deweydog]

For the record, I wasn’t being serious about saying you are always serious. That whole exchange with Tim was pretty tongue in cheek. Figured that would be easier to pick up on than it was, I suppose.

The record shall so reflect.

[Jesse]

The record shall so reflect.

Just save it in your treasure trove.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful day! Love this time of year!