TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 That was a different day. No... I just checked. It was right after my "I doubt it" comment. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Officially our heaviest snowfall this late in the season since at least 1964 (analog?). Might even hit double digits at this rate. 8 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Wish that snow would have hit when I was out there. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 1954 was kind of interesting in that every month from March - October at SEA had between 1.5" and 2.6" of precip. No sign of the typical seasonality over that period. Yeah, that year we were channeling Scotland. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Tim won't like the 12z GFS Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Wish that snow would have hit when I was out there.You can tell it’s March, though. It’s so freaking bright outside that you have to squint. In 2014 we had similar late season snows, and I actually got a bit sunburned while shoveling my neighbor’s driveway. #doofus Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Tim won't like the 12z GFS We will see how it works out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 If every snowfall map that Andrew has posted in the last 5 months from the long range GFS runs actually verified it would have been the snowiest winter in history. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 FWIW, the trades are still cranking. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 If every snowfall map that Andrew has posted in the last 5 months from the long range GFS runs actually verified it would have been the snowiest winter in history. False Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 No... I just checked. It was right after my "I doubt it" comment.You are remembering a run from a different day then, because the 12z Euro on the 13th certainly didn’t show a cold trough at day 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 FalseWould have been the ridgiest winter in history if every day 10 ridge map that was posted had worked out. Maybe next year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Decent band of rain working its way up the valley from the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Not looking good 8FB55196-6B55-4B8C-8C73-16CF8EE940D1.gif 17F22521-2F79-456C-AE5D-59CFC42CCE40.gifThose maps are sort of a joke. I can’t remember the last time they didn’t look warm for us in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 You are remembering a run from a different day then, because the 12z Euro on the 13th certainly didn’t show a cold trough at day 10.It did. And I doubted it would work out. I was wrong. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Would have been the ridgiest winter in history if every day 10 ridge map that was posted had worked out. Maybe next year!The map I posted would not even produce snow below 1500, so I don’t know what he was talking about. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 It did. And I doubted it would work out. I was wrong.You are remembering wrong. It showed a crazy looking cut off pattern. I mentioned if the cutoff trended further north and east, like last week’s did, it might evolve into an actual cold, troughy pattern. Then you said you doubted it. The Euro didn’t actually come around to a cold trough for the latter half of this week until a handful of runs later. Anyway, this is silly and why people hate us. So maybe if we want to have any further discussion about this we can take it to our PM treasure trove. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I can dig up an archive of that March 13th Euro run if you guys want to settle this in Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 You are remembering wrong. It showed a crazy looking cut off pattern, I mentioned if the cutoff trended further north and east, like last week’s did, it might evolve into an actual cold, troughy pattern. Then you said you doubted it. The Euro didn’t actually come around to a cold trough for the latter half of this week until a handful of runs later. Anyway, this is silly and why people hate us. So maybe if we want to have any further discussion about this we can take it to our PM treasure trove.I think it did... that is why I made the sword comment. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I can dig up an archive of that March 13th Euro run if you guys want to settle this in Yes, 12z Euro from 3/13/18 at hour 240 por favòr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... does not look too interesting even up here. And only 4 inches at Snoqualmie Pass. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... does not look too interesting even up here. Looks interesting on the coast. They always seem to be favored during these late season events. Probably since a lot of late season snow patterns feature cold onshore flow, and shadowing isn’t as much of an issue there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 12Z ECMWF is also essentially dry up here on both Saturday and Sunday now. Looks like low 50s both days as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Yes, 12z Euro from 3/13/18 at hour 240 por favòr.Yeah, looks like a cutoff/ULL on both the 00z/12z runs for 3/13. The Euro tends to bias that way in the long range so it’s not exceptionally surprising, IMO. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Yeah, looks more like a cutoff/ULL. Both the 00z and 12z for 3/13 show the excess ULL activity. The Euro tends to bias that way in the long range so it’s not exceptionally surprising, IMO. This one is the one I was talking about. Cutoff pattern with the northern half of the trough to our NE and a southern part well offshore. In reality it will end up being a consolidated trough moving directly over us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Here’s hr240 for the 3/13 12z Euro. Way too much offshore ULL. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Yeah, looks like a cutoff/ULL on both the 00z/12z runs for 3/13. The Euro tends to bias that way in the long range so it’s not exceptionally surprising, IMO. Thanks Phil. That is what I remember from the 12Z run that day above. And this is what it shows now for the same time... it was pretty close. I was wrong to doubt it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Thanks Phil. That is what I remember from the 12Z run that day above. And this is what it shows now for the same time... it was pretty close. I was wrong to doubt it. No, you are responding to his map of the 00z. I have no idea why he posted that one too since it just confuses things. We were ALWAYS talking about the 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... does not look too interesting even up here. And only 4 inches at Snoqualmie Pass. Lame. Seems to be getting dry with every run. Aberdeen does well though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 No, you are responding to his map of the 00z. I have no idea why he posted that one too since it just confuses things. We were ALWAYS talking about the 12z run. Well... the 00Z run was really close then. The 12Z run was getting there as well. What allowed that pattern to even evolve was cutting off a low way to the west before that time and that is what I doubted. I am really impressed at how well the 00Z run did for being 10 days out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Comparing anomalies to absolutes can be deceptive. Here’s what it shows now in terms of 500mb anomalies. Big difference IMO. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Well... the 00Z run was really close then. The 12Z run was getting there as well. What allowed that pattern to even evolve was cutting off a low way to the west before that time and that is what I doubted. I am really impressed at how well the 00Z run did for being 10 days out.The GFS caught onto the trough first. The Euro floundered around with improperly placed cutoff lows for several runs before finally settling into what will likely verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 The GFS caught onto the trough first. The Euro floundered around with improperly placed cutoff lows for several runs before finally settling into what will likely verify. The EPS actually showed it first... but I was not really paying attention at that time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Beautiful day... the last 7 days have been really nice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Well... the 00Z run was really close then. The 12Z run was getting there as well. What allowed that pattern to even evolve was cutting off a low way to the west before that time and that is what I doubted. I am really impressed at how well the 00Z run did for being 10 days out.I think it’s necessary to acknowledge the operational ECMWF’s cutoff low/SW-rear quad drag bias. It’s a well established challenge that is acknowledged by the programmers themselves (and the entirety of the relevant peer reviewed literature). To the contrary, the GFS has a progressive bias and often puts too much convection in the WHEM in the extended range. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I think it’s necessary to acknowledge the operational ECMWF’s cutoff low/SW-rear quad drag bias. It’s a well established challenge that is acknowledged by the programmers themselves (and the entirety of the relevant peer reviewed literature). To the contrary, the GFS has a progressive bias and often puts too much convection in the WHEM in the extended range. Absolutely. I see it all the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 12Z ECMWF shows a trough glancing by through BC on days 9 and 10. Hopefully that ULL entering the GOA remains progressive and pushes the ridge over us again for Easter weekend. It looks quite progressive when run the loop. Day 9: Day 10: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS leading the way again. Pretty crazy really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 The West Coast "finger of warmth" is back on the ECMWF for later next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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