March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I was just thinking about you this morning. It's been awhile...

Been focused too much on college basketball this time of year. I contribute to a podcast about it and we get super analytical about it. Plus my collection of jerseys takes my mind off epilepsy for sure. Crazy how we look to get cold again. Why couldn't we have this back in Dec-Jan...one day.

[Jesse]

It will definitely be all about the timing of precip and sunbreaks. Even 850's around -10 would likely bring highs near 50 this time of year under full sunshine.

 

As it is we will have 850's around -6 to -7 with on and off showers. Tough call.

Yeah. With precip around most of the day an afternoon high in the 40s is probably a given tomorrow at least. Although tonight has midnight high written all over it, at least down here.

[ShawniganLake]

43F and raining here.

[TT-SEA]

43F and raining here.

 

Back up to 55 out here now... not much more than sprinkles this evening at times.

[ShawniganLake]

Back up to 55 out here now... not much more than sprinkles this evening at times.

Easterly flow I assume.

[TT-SEA]

Easterly flow I assume.

Not sure... maybe warmer southerly flow ahead of front? Was out with dog and there was a little wind... driveway is still dry so sprinkles have been basically nothing.

[ShawniganLake]

Both the gfs and gem ensemble show a drop around late March or early April

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

 

Saturday continues to look pretty much dry as well... here is precip from 11 a.m. - 5 p.m. on Saturday:

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunday looks showery on the 00Z ECMWF... with highs in the low 50s across the entire region.

[Timmy Supercell]

There were a few times this evening it literally poured rain enough to make a lot of noise with any window opened. Nice to see more rain coming over the east sides recently.

 

By the way, shortened my signature in case that got long. I got the rest saved on a document for reference. Plus added what this snow season has offered, as I believe I have not told many people how much snow fell this time. Not very significant really.

[TT-SEA]

Both the gfs and gem ensemble show a drop around late March or early April

 

ECMWF showing something similar... will be interesting to see if the EPS blinks.

 

 

[Jesse]

Euro showing the end of the month cool down more solidly than ever.

[ShawniganLake]

Whatcom and Fraser valley special. Of course it is the WRF, though

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS has a winter weather advisory up for this area now. 2-6" of snow possible with localized amounts of 10". Pretty wide range of possibilities. Hit 56 yesterday. 

 

Was 51 when I got home at 6pm still. Down to 39 now with moderate rain. 0.69" overnight.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

EPS blinked so it must be real... now the GFS will probably stumble around like a drunken sailor and ruin its victory.

 

Sort of looks like we are going back to the pattern of early February with the PNW right on the dividing line and very cold conditions across southern Canada and the northern US.    That was the endless drizzle pattern for areas from Seattle northward.   

 

And Phil's early April ridging appears to be in trouble as well.   Its was a very persistent pattern once it set up last time.

[TT-SEA]

Raining and 43.

[MossMan]

Rain and 44 here.

[Jesse]

EPS blinked so it must be real... now the GFS will probably stumble around like a drunken sailor and ruin its victory.

 

Sort of looks like we are going back to the pattern of early February with the PNW right on the dividing line and very cold conditions across southern Canada and the northern US. That was the endless drizzle pattern for areas from Seattle northward.

 

And Phil's early April ridging appears to be in trouble as well. Its was a very persistent pattern once it set up last time.

Looks like a much different pattern than early February. Now you will post ten maps trying to prove otherwise but I can tell you that just by looking at the same models we all have access to.

[Timmy]

Rain and 45 here.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a much different pattern than early February. Now you will post ten maps trying to prove otherwise but I can tell you that just by looking at the same models we all have access to.

850mb map is very similar per the EPS. Being on the dividing line locally is usually a perpetual warm front scenario.

[Jesse]

850mb map is very similar per the EPS. Being on the dividing line locally is usually a perpetual warm front scenario.

Looks like a cooler and drier regional pattern to me, especially drier up there. Also, I am sure we will still see a bout of ridging to start April.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a cooler and drier regional pattern to me, especially drier up there. Also, I am sure we will still see a bout of ridging to start April.

Hope you are right. As you know... I usually assume the worst.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain and 45 here.

 

Surprised you are still that warm. Down to 38 here. 

[Esquimalt]

What ever happened to DJ Dropping'?  

[Timmy]

Surprised you are still that warm. Down to 38 here.

I was just posting a random number based on previous comments from this morning. I think it was 39 at my place this morning

[Front Ranger]

What ever happened to DJ Dropping'?  

 

He usually just drops in for the most active periods of the winter.

[ShawniganLake]

I was just posting a random number based on previous comments from this morning. I think it was 39 at my place this morning

85F with thundersnow here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS sure reminds me of early February at least out here.  

 

Strong block over Alaska... cold air centered in the middle of the continent.  

 

Surface details could certainly be drier given the season... but the pattern looks familiar.

 

[bainbridgekid]

WRF is back to being pretty snowy. Most of this falls early Saturday morning, but there is a little tonight as well.

 

It's going to be all about timing showers with this. Heavier showers between about 10 PM and 10 AM could be snow, but I still have a tough time believing it will stick below the higher hills.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can't wait for the grumbling from up north!

 

[Timmy]

The latest wrf just went very bullish up here now looks like 4-8”. Interested to see euro as it was showing 2”

[HighlandExperience]

WRF is back to being pretty snowy. Most of this falls early Saturday morning, but there is a little tonight as well.

 

It's going to be all about timing showers with this. Heavier showers between about 10 PM and 10 AM could be snow, but I still have a tough time believing it will stick below the higher hills.

 

ww_snow48.48.0000.gif

Wow WRF is bullish. To bad it’s been horribly wrong recently

[TT-SEA]

Wow WRF is bullish. To bad it’s been horribly wrong recently

 

Have to go with the ECMWF surface maps in these situations.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is close in the long range!

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a lot of places in the Willamette Valley are in the .5 to 1" range for this storm already.

 

I see PDX trolled Jesse by dropping down to 49 at midnight, but then popping up to 50 at 1 am. High in the 40s averted.

[Esquimalt]

The 12Z GFS looking cool in the long range.  Most of the cold air is shafted east, but probably enough to make things interesting round here.  

[Jesse]

Crazy, maybe Phil’s early April ridging won’t work out. He did allude to the fact that the large scale pattern shift to -NAO might work against it.

[Esquimalt]

Crazy, maybe Phil’s early April ridging won’t work out. He did allude to the fact that the large scale pattern shift to -NAO might work against it.

Well I'd rather have troughing than ridging... so I'm not complaining. 

[Jesse]

Well I'd rather have troughing than ridging... so I'm not complaining.

A mix is usually the nicest. Then we can get cold days with mountain snow, chilly mornings, and sunshine at times too.