Plains/MW/GL Weekend Light Snow Event 1/21-1/22

[bud2380]

The GFS was the first to show this system and the Euro and Canadian have come into line the past couple of days.  All are showing relative consistency in bringing a weak wave of snow from eastern CO into parts of KS, NE, IA, MO, IL, WI and MI.  A general 1-4" appears to be in line for most areas, but maybe it will trend a bit stronger as we get closer (fingers crossed).  Either way for many snow starved areas, at least it brings a chance to see some flakes fly.  

 

[Tom]

Thanks for starting the thread Bud...hopefully some of us can see a ground covered with some white gold instead of the brown grass.

[CentralNebWeather]

We are supposed to go to Lincoln Saturday morning for a post Christmas family get together with my wife’s extended side of the family. Not a fan of driving I 80 in snow, would probably take Highway 6 which is less traveled. My wife said we will make our decision by 8 am Saturday morning. 

[bud2380]

Winter Storm Watch issued by the Dodge City, KS weather office.  Warnings in SE Colorado.  

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
403 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084-200115-
/O.NEW.KDDC.WS.A.0001.230121T0300Z-230122T0000Z/
Scott-Lane-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-
Morton-
Including the cities of Scott City, Scott State Lake, Dighton,
Syracuse, Lakin, Deerfield, Garden City, Johnson City, Ulysses,
Sublette, Satanta, Cimarron, Montezuma, and Elkhart
403 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 /303 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations commonly of
  2 to 4 inches with locally 5 inches or more.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Kansas.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and widespread
  visibility reduction to a half mile.

[bud2380]

EPS Mean

 

[bud2380]

18z NAM is very weak.  

[bud2380]

18z RDPS is much much stronger

 

[Clinton]

EAX discussion

The next storm system, which will affect the area from Saturday
afternoon through the overnight hours, is moving southeastward
across Nevada this afternoon. This wave will move into the Four
Corners area tonight, across Arizona and New Mexico Friday, and then
into the high plains by Saturday morning. As this wave tracks
eastward through the day Saturday, it will merge with another wave
moving southeastward out of Canada. As this area of combined
vorticity moves over the region, remaining positively tilted and
progressive as it does, widespread light precipitation will develop.
Models show some low-level warm advection ahead of the wave but
there is no warm layer aloft to melt any potential ice crystals. So
we`ll see rain for areas where the temperatures are warmer
initially, then transition to snow as temperatures cool later in
the event. This initial melting due to warmer boundary layer
temperatures will cut into accumulations along and south of the
Missouri River. But north of the river, where temperatures will be
closer to freezing and below for the duration of the precipitation,
several inches of snow looks possible. The current forecast shows a
swath of 1-2 inches of snow across the northern half of the forecast
area, north of the Missouri River. Along and south of the river,
where the changeover to snow is later, amounts of less than an inch
are expected at this time. The period of heaviest precipitation
looks to be in the 6 PM Saturday to midnight Sunday time frame.

[CentralNebWeather]

21z SREF. Will be keeping a close eye on this storm as we are supposed to travel to Lincoln Saturday. This would be snow on top of snow for me  Other models have this further south  

[CentralNebWeather]

18z Euro. 

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

18z Euro. 

Euro takes it right up to your door step.  Not a lot of snow with this one for KC but this would have flakes flying during the Chiefs game Saturday.

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Euro takes it right up to your door step.  Not a lot of snow with this one for KC but this would have flakes flying during the Chiefs game Saturday.

Always cool to see snowflakes at football games. NWS Hastings really has no idea if this comes up towards I80 or stays south of Kansas border. Unfortunately, it looks like it   weakens by the time it hits your area. NWS KC says 1-2” north of Missouri River. That wouldn’t give you much. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Always cool to see snowflakes at football games. NWS Hastings really has no idea if this comes up towards I80 or stays south of Kansas border. Unfortunately, it looks like it   weakens by the time it hits your area. NWS KC says 1-2” north of Missouri River. That wouldn’t give you much. 

Not expecting much of anything for mby but I'll be at the game Saturday and would love to have some flake flying during the game.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Not expecting much of anything for mby but I'll be at the game Saturday and would love to have some flake flying during the game.

That should be fun. I’ve sent my brother in Shawnee the pictures of the snow we had that I’ve posted on here. He is in awe. I think he said at his location they have only had a little over 1” of snow for the season. Need a share the wealth system further south. 

[Clinton]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

That should be fun. I’ve sent my brother in Shawnee the pictures of the snow we had that I’ve posted on here. He is in awe. I think he said at his location they have only had a little over 1” of snow for the season. Need a share the wealth system further south. 

I'm very jealous and congrats on landing the big dog!  3rd year in a row where my area will enter the last week of January with very little snow and like the previous 2 winters it looks like a stormy finish.

[Hawkeye]

The early HRRR run is way south with this wave.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM 

[jaster220]

Looking at the NAM further east. Brings SEMI about 6 hrs of snow falling. Idc about amounts, just nice to see non-mixed mess look from this range. 

 

[Hawkeye]

The most bullish models only drop an inch or so here.  Some models show nothing.  

[Clinton]

0z GFS

[Clinton]

0z GEFS

 

[Tom]

I'm just hoping this system produces enough to whiten up the ground as snow is falling with temps in the upper 20's to REMIND me that yes, indeed, we are in the middle of Winter!  Is that too much to ask??

 

 

[Tom]

There is some indication that the wave is getting a bit stronger and pulling more moisture up into IN/S MI/OH...

 

06z GEFS...

 

 

0z EPS...

[westMJim]

At the current time the weekend (Sunday) system dose not look to much of a snow event here in Michigan. 

[Clinton]

Expectations aren't high for this system to produce much but most short range models picking up on an inch or 2 for some.

6z NAM

 

3km NAM

RDPS

HRRR through hr 48

 

[Clinton]

6z Euro with a small bump in totals.

6z GFS

[Clinton]

EAX take this morning.

The Weekend:

After our brief quiet weather break, attention will turn to a
pinched low across the southwest. As we head into Saturday, this low
will shift northwest, eventually merging with the main trough across
the central US. This system will move into our area by mid Saturday
bringing the return of precip chances through the day. Precip type
looks a bit tricky with this system, with northern parts of the area
seeing mainly snow, while areas south of I-70 look to remain
primarily rain or mixed. Soundings show much of the area with
profiles aloft just below the freezing mark with surface
temperatures near to slightly above freezing. With the warm ground
(especially south of I-70) it may take quite a while to see any
snowfall stick to the ground. As cold air eventually moves in, the
southern half of the area will transition to snow or a rain snow
mix before the event comes to an end. Accumulations for the KC
Metro and I-70 and south will be primarily less than an inch, and
mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. For northwest MO however,
where cold air is more present, accumulations of 1-2" will be
possible. Precipitation will move out quickly Saturday night. Quiet
weather returns for Sunday. Clouds will linger through the day
and highs will top our in the mid to upper 30s across the area.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro with a small bump in totals.

6z GFS

Looks like south of I80 in Nebraska.  This would put me in line for possibly a couple of inches as I'm about 15 miles south of I80.  Not many places to put any more snow.  Our school lots this morning look like the Rockies.  Massive piles everywhere.

[MIKEKC]

The 12z HRRR singing a different tune. Keeps it mostly in KS/MO and shows 2-3 in KC.

 

[Clinton]

29 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Looks like south of I80 in Nebraska.  This would put me in line for possibly a couple of inches as I'm about 15 miles south of I80.  Not many places to put any more snow.  Our school lots this morning look like the Rockies.  Massive piles everywhere.

Running out of room to put snow now that's a good problem to have.  Let's hope this moisture translates into spring rains.

[jcwxguy]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

The 12z HRRR singing a different tune. Keeps it mostly in KS/MO and shows 2-3 in KC.

 

The hrrr has a southern bias, especially over 20hrs

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

[bud2380]

UK just hits dry air and falls apart as it moves into Iowa.

 

[Clinton]

12z GFS 

12z GEFS

[Clinton]

12z CMC

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

At the current time the weekend (Sunday) system does not look too much of a snow event here in Michigan. 

Speak for yourself. Ofc, it's a nothing-burger compared to scoring 2-3 feet of LES like you've done twice this season already. Sadly, very sadly, I have to be excited for the "chance" at a couple inches

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z CMC

I know this is the GEM. Too bad the RGEM wasn't more accurate (see earlier post)

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I know this is the GEM. Too bad the RGEM wasn't more accurate (see earlier post)

I like the RGEM with clippers and thats about it.  The CMC is having a good year but you know with it you have to shave a few inches off.

[Clinton]

WWA issued for Topeka, Kan and NW Missouri.

[MIKEKC]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

WWA issued for Topeka, Kan and NW Missouri.

I wonder if KC will eventually be put under one tomorrow at some point. New runs of NAM 3KM and Nam show some kind of meso banding. It actually holds the storm together quite well. Looking at the satellite today, the storm has a beautiful circulation to it over the 4 corners.....Data up to this point blows it up to our west and then weakens quite a bit heading east. What if it were to stay stronger longer?? We'll see if the Oz data shows that tonight. It would be a no brainer if temps where in the 20's...BUT