Minny_Weather Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Gosh, if we had some warm air to work with I feel like this would be a major severe wx producer over here. Too bad we're not supposed to reach 60 today. Oh well, HRRR shows some good spring thunderstorms tonight moving through, can't complain about that!Yeah I'm jealous I'm not there. Oh well, I'll be there most of April and May. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 12z ICON also steady, crush job for CR/IC. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 12z ICON also steady, crush job for CR/IC.Do you actually think CR could get 8+ inches? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 I'm so salty right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 12z GFS about the same, 06z ticked ne and 12z ticked back sw. The GFS appears to be having an issue with convective feedback over Iowa. A blob of convection over central Iowa is creating a surface trough that pushes the rain/snow line back north over eastern Iowa, leading to lower snow totals through CR/IC. It looks weird. Each run is a little different with the rain/snow line because of this. The GFS has been plagued with convective feedback issues forever. I hope they can figure out how to get rid of it in future models. Do you actually think CR could get 8+ inches? Well, it looks like somebody will. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 A lot of weenies in this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 A lot of weenies in this threadChill out man, let them have their fun...you'd be posting every single map of every single model if you were in the jack zone...lets get real Money. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 A lot of weenies in this thread As always, I am perfectly fine being done with snow in mid March. Bring on spring. However, I'll never be able to shake the excitement of a potential biggie snow. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The Canadian appears to be even a little farther sw, maybe even taking the best snow just sw of CR. I don't see the snow maps, yet, but the general precip map shows the heavy trowal tracking from central Iowa to just south of the QC. Update: Snow map ticked south an inch, but still clobbers CR. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Yea. I'm generally done with the snow by mid march, but I'll be open to a big snow until early April. After that, I'm in severe mode. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 I've always loved Canada http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018032312/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The HRRR keeps showing the heaviest band right through Iowa City. This is only thru 3am or so. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032315/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The HRRR keeps showing the heaviest band right through Iowa City. This is only thru 3am or so. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032315/018/snku_acc.us_mw.pngShowing 6" thru 3AM with pockets of 12-14." Definitely a convective nature to that snow. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 UK looks like it shifted further SW as well. I'd definitely be worried if I was in Dubuque. I feel like CR and Iowa City are in a good spot either way. A slight shift north or south still seems to put us in a good spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Frankly i don't see any way that Johnson county isn't added to the warning and the counties one row south could be as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 latest WSW wording is saying 6-9" with up to 12" ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inchesexpected, with localized amounts up to 12 inches possible. Minorice accumulations of a light glaze possible. East winds willgust up to 35 mph at times.* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa and northcentral and northwest Illinois.* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates may peak between 1-2inches per hour leading to significant reductions invisibility and very difficult travel conditions. The heavy wetsnow may result in broken tree branches, which could lead tosporadic power outages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 UK has the heaviest band just west of CR and IC it looks like. hard to tell from a national map though. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 UK has the heaviest band just west of CR and IC it looks like. hard to tell from a national map though. Yeah, the UK just removed a chunk of the QC precip. I would not be surprised if the euro moves the max snow band just sw of CR. Coincidentally, the last three strong clippers that hit this area, two this winter and one last, all ended up dropping the best snow just s of CR. We certainly don't want the heavy trowal Saturday morning to drop south before reaching CR/IC/QC. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 I'm hoping the Euro remains steady Eddie and looks almost identical to the 00z run. HRRR has 5 straight runs now with the heavy band directly through IC. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032316/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Euro held serve. Very similar to last night. May have moved north a tick. I’d have to double check last nights run again but Iowa City and Cedar Rapids both well within the heavy band. CR a little better 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Euro: Probably one if the best runs by a reliable model that I've ever seen for my location inside of 24 hours from the onset. Perfect Hiawatha bullseye. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Euro held serve. Very similar to last night. May have moved north a tick. I’d have to double check last nights run again but Iowa City and Cedar Rapids both well within the heavy band. CR a little better The 12z euro did, indeed, tick back north a bit. Basically, last night's 00z run shifted two steps sw and now the 12z shifted back ne one step. Dubuque, in the last three runs, has gone from 8 to 0 to 7. Waterloo/CR/IC/QC all crush it. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Euro: Probably one if the best runs by a reliable model that I've ever seen for my location inside of 24 hours from the onset. Perfect Hiawatha bullseye. The big qpf is there. Now, we just need to hope for decent ratios(8+). Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The I80 corridor should get upgraded to a warning and a row or two of counties to the south should get in a WWA in Eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The big qpf is there. Now, we just need to hope for decent ratios(8+).With the strong, likely convective banding we will see, I feel confident that we see good ratios higher than 8:1. I think we have a shot at ratios even closer to 10:1 during the heaviest bands. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 HRRR is further south. Still is blasting Iowa City run after run though. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032317/018/qpf_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The big qpf is there. Now, we just need to hope for decent ratios(8+).By tomorrow night, you will have easily surpassed the seasonal norms in terms of snowfall. I think 5" is in the bank and then some. Good luck boys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Shifting to the severe aspects of the storm, I think the people most likely to see severe hail would be those right along the KS/NE border. Namely those towards Central NE/KS. I'm not thinking Lincoln will get anything more than a routine thunderstorm. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 It is up to 47 degrees, here, but the dewpoint continues to sit at only 25. Once the precip begins falling through the column, the temp will crash. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 With the strong, likely convective banding we will see, I feel confident that we see good ratios higher than 8:1. I think we have a shot at ratios even closer to 10:1 during the heaviest bands.Eh Always go on the lower side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Eh Always go on the lower sideWe've seen higher ratios become realized in bands before, don't see a reason why this same rule won't apply here. Maybe I'm just being too optimistic, but I seriously think we have a shot at periods of 10:1 snow. However, I definitely think this will mostly be 8:1 stuff. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 We've seen higher ratios become realized in bands before, don't see a reason why this same rule won't apply here. Maybe I'm just being too optimistic, but I seriously think we have a shot at periods of 10:1 snow. However, I definitely think this will mostly be 8:1 stuff.East coast just had this problem. The forecasts were way off because the good ratios etc never materialized Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 having much of the snow fall overnight or in the AM hours, I think will be very helpful to accumulations. That extra degree or two cooler will make a difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 i know this is a broken record, but the HRRR blasts Iowa City again. Now up to 15" and the storm isn't even over at the end of the run. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032318/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 point forecast has been increased to 7" for North Liberty and to 9" for Cedar Rapids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 i-80 corridor added to the Winter Storm Warning and a row below added to WWA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 WPC actually has E IA with a 30-40% probability of >12" and 5% probability of >18"... haven't seen that in a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 90%+ on the 12z EPS of 6"+ for a lot of the E IA posters... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Not in the Midwest currently but goodnluck everyone. Quick glance at Iowa obs shoe low dew points with east winds. 20 degree dew point in Iowa City. That's good news down there. You should wet bulb well. Not surprised money is downplaying... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 98% chance of 6" or more. Not bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.