California Weather/ Climate

[Black Hole]

You guys might get a Santa Ana early next week as a cold trough digs into the mountain west. Hopefully no fires this time.

[Dan the Weatherman]

You guys might get a Santa Ana early next week as a cold trough digs into the mountain west. Hopefully no fires this time.

NWS San Diego is forecasting a weak to moderate Santa Ana for early next week at this time. Hopefully there aren't any fires, despite light rainfall amounts forecast for this weekend's storm. We had a very light Santa Ana early in the month without any fires as it was only breezy, but nothing since then, so we are definitely due for a stronger one.

[Guest happ]

Troughs and ridges have been weak this month but I'll gladly accept a strong ridge/ santa ana conditions if we can get some rainfall this weekend.

 

90 / 62

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is looking more likely that Socal will get at least some measurable rainfall for Halloween night into Saturday morning. Some areas in Orange and Riverside County could receive up to .25", but most areas will probably average somewhat less, especially to the south toward San Diego.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if a stronger Santa Ana event comes up next week, as usually the first storm of the season cools the desert regions as a trough takes up residence in the area and makes conditions more favorable for a surface high to drop into the Great Basin. This is a fairly classic pattern that really gets the fall season going in Socal. The nights will likely be colder from now on with the exception of when a warm Santa Ana episode comes up and keeps temperatures elevated in the more wind-prone areas, such as my area here in Orange.

[Guest happ]

Can anyone remember the last time we had a winter weather advisory?  Best news in a long time.

 

84 / 60

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
152 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.A COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OCCURRING SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY.

CAZ055-056-310500-
/O.NEW.KSGX.WW.Y.0006.141101T0600Z-141101T2100Z/
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...BALDWIN LAKE...
BIG BEAR CITY...BIG BEAR LAKE...FAWNSKIN
152 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM
PDT SATURDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY.

* ELEVATION...ABOVE 6500 FEET.

* SNOW LEVELS...NEAR 7000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO 6000 FT BY
  LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 6500-7500 FT. 3 TO 5
  INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
  MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

* TIMING...LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: BALDWIN LAKE...BIG BEAR CITY...BIG BEAR
  LAKE...FAWNSKIN...MT SAN JACINTO STATE PARK.

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.
  LOCAL GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE IN WIND PRONE AREAS.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN SNOW...
  BLOWING SNOW...AND FOG.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
  MOUNTAINS DUE TO SNOW ON ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITY. CHAINS
  MAY BE REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS.

* OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
  ALOFT.

 

[Guest happ]

NWS_LA added this disclaimer; we've been disappointed so much that it is only natural to be skeptical.

 

EARLY RAIN SEASON DISCLAIMER...THERE IS 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE

VORT MAX AND FRONT WILL NOT PHASE TOGETHER AS NICELY AS THE MDLS ARE

FORECASTING AND IF THIS HAPPENS THIS EVENT WILL FIZZLE AND WHILE

PRODUCING SOME RAIN IT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN EVENT AT ALL.

[Alan]

Where do they come up with "20% chance" that it will fizzle?

 

NWS SD has me at 100% for rain tonight and 70% snow likely tomorrow and has upped totals to 1"+ rain and 2"-4" snow tomorrow. I sure hope it doesn't flop or underperform. With the prospects of dry weather again for 2+ weeks it sure would be disappointing. It'll be nice to see San Gorgonio and the higher peaks with snow again.

 

We'll find out by morning! High clouds thickening up with light gusty winds.

[richard mann]

-

Looks as though things may finally break "Point Conception". .. What are the forecasters, "models", more general forecasts, saying. ? .. "happ", "Dan ...". ?

 

-http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

-http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0000.jpg

 

.. Also, Resounding what Fred has said, pointed to just above, .. With looking at the "full-er list-ing" of people (entities. ?) tuned in and checking what's going here—both more forum-wide, along with almost even more specifically in the main regional sub-forum—it looks at if their are plenty of guests (endearingly, referred to sometimes as "lurkers".) doing so. ... Please do, grace us with your own input. The more different perspectives, the better. ?

[Dan the Weatherman]

-

Looks as though things may finally break "Point Conception". .. What are the forecasters, "models", more general forecasts, saying. ? .. "happ", "Dan ...". ?

 

-http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

-http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0000.jpg

 

.. Also, Resounding what Fred has said, pointed to just above, .. With looking at the "full-er list-ing" of people (entities. ?) tuned in and checking what's going here—both more forum-wide, along with almost even more specifically in the main regional sub-forum—it looks at if their are plenty of guests (endearingly, referred to sometimes as "lurkers".) doing so. ... Please do, grace us with your own input. The more different perspectives, the better. ?

I have been getting some off and on light showers here in Orange tonight, but the main band hasn't reached my area just yet.

 

This excerpt from tonight's San Diego NWS AFD:

 

PRECIP PROJECTIONS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. 

 

My area could receive anywhere from .25" to .5" and I hope the higher amount verifies!

[Guest happ]

It rained and the temperature is 55.6°.  Preliminary data suggests the Central Coast recorded some healthy totals [over an inch].  0.32 was quickly absorbed at my location but mudslides occurred in previous fire burn areas in Ventura county.

[Alan]

Running Springs 6250' 36F just dropped from a steady 37F overnight with a welcomed 1.4" rain so far! Nice to see it fall over several hours instead of 20 minutes like the few heavy summer Tstorms.

[bainbridgekid]

My sister got a pretty cool shot of a rainbow in LA. Not sure if this was taken this morning or yesterday but she said it was really rare to see one this well defined there, especially in this drought!

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

My sister got a pretty cool shot of a rainbow in LA. Not sure if this was taken this morning or yesterday but she said it was really rare to see one this well defined there, especially in this drought!

 

LA Rainbow.jpg

That is a great shot of the rainbow that she took! It didn't look cloudy enough to produce rain, but she must have been at the very edge of a band of rain that was mostly behind her with residual rain falling where she was at the moment. This looks to be in West L.A., somewhere on the NB 405 between LAX and Sunset Blvd. with what appears to be the Santa Monica Mountains visible in the background.

[richard mann]

-
With the recent general storm having passed through, and with noting what's shown / covered more generally at the site-page following accessible here further below, .. I'm thinking that this resource might be an interesting one both relating to and where considering the idea following the main weather changes more from day to day here in California.
 
— It's the main "web-Cam" array (3 different main cameras.), having been set up by "Lick Observatory", sitting atop Mt. Hamilton, in the mountains just east of San Jose. - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount Hamilton (California) /
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mt+Hamilton,+CA/@36.6474827,-122.0081493,440572m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x808e2a6e8c659ff1:0xa7cf3b9dd645bfbc
 
.. Centrally located in California, main camera directions both East, and West. 
 
— The main Western pointed camera, looks out over San Jose and to the Pacific, with the south end of the San Francisco Bay also included within its main frame of view working as a general reference.
 
@ —>  http://mthamilton.ucolick.org/hamcam/ 
      http://mthamilton.ucolick.org/  (.. the "Movies" connected to each camera, take a moment to load in.)
 
Beyond this resource considered / looked at more in particularly, I'm thinking perhaps also, that others could be gathered and tacked into a more specific, additional main topic thread to this our section of the broader forum here, i.e. dedicated more specifically to resource gathering, … Perhaps even enticing (inspiring.) other sections regional to do the same. …

[Dan the Weatherman]

-

With the recent general storm having passed through, and with noting what's shown / covered more generally at the site-page following accessible here further below, .. I'm thinking that this resource might be an interesting one both relating to and where considering the idea following the main weather changes more from day to day here in California.

 

— It's the main "web-Cam" array (3 different main cameras.), having been set up by "Lick Observatory", sitting atop Mt. Hamilton, in the mountains just east of San Jose. - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount Hamilton (California) /

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mt+Hamilton,+CA/@36.6474827,-122.0081493,440572m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x808e2a6e8c659ff1:0xa7cf3b9dd645bfbc

 

.. Centrally located in California, main camera directions both East, and West. 

 

— The main Western pointed camera, looks out over San Jose and to the Pacific, with the south end of the San Francisco Bay also included within its main frame of view working as a general reference.

 

@ —>  http://mthamilton.ucolick.org/hamcam/ 

      http://mthamilton.ucolick.org/  (.. the "Movies" connected to each camera, take a moment to load in.)

 

Beyond this resource considered / looked at more in particularly, I'm thinking perhaps also, that others could be gathered and tacked into a more specific, additional main topic thread to this our section of the broader forum here, i.e. dedicated more specifically to resource gathering, … Perhaps even enticing (inspiring.) other sections regional to do the same. …

It would certainly be a good idea to setup a webcam page. I have some links to webcams in Socal that I could add, such as the Mt. Wilson Observatory in the San Gabriel Mountains, Palomar Mountain in San Diego County, the Huntington Beach Pier, etc.

[snow_wizard]

Glad to see you guys got some decent rain.

[Guest happ]

Today was like an abrupt end to summer but I know it will get warm this week.  Normally June & October are the bookends of the summer season; the first & last months averaging over 80 day/ 60 night.  Since May this year was warmer than normal, it has been 6 consecutive months of average mean over 70°.  This October was much warmer than normal, making today feel all that much better if you crave cold. 

 

Storm totals were modest but over an inch in favored locations throughout California.

 

67 / 55 [coolest max since 4/4; coldest min : 5/7].

 

Storm total: 0.34

Rain Total [jul-jun]: 0.57

 

October Data

 

Aver Max: 85.6 [Norm: 81

Aver Min: 64.3 [Norm: 61

Mean: 74.9

 

Highest Max: 103

Lowest Max: 71

Highest Min: 75

Lowest Min: 60

 

Rain days: 1

[bainbridgekid]

That is a great shot of the rainbow that she took! It didn't look cloudy enough to produce rain, but she must have been at the very edge of a band of rain that was mostly behind her with residual rain falling where she was at the moment. This looks to be in West L.A., somewhere on the NB 405 between LAX and Sunset Blvd. with what appears to be the Santa Monica Mountains visible in the background.

Bingo.

 

Judging by the Marshall's and Pet Smart it must have been on NB 405 where W Olympic Blvd goes under the freeway. About halfway between Santa Monica Blvd and 10.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Glad to see you guys got some decent rain.

This was a good early season storm for CA, and even my area here in Orange (approx. 6 miles east of Disneyland) got some decent rain. Hopefully this is a good sign for more storminess during this upcoming winter that will help to relieve the drought. Deficits have mounted so much over the last couple of years statewide to the point that it will likely take 2-3 years of wetter than normal weather and above normal snowfall in the Sierras to end the drought completely, but any wet winter will go a long way in improvement.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Bingo.

 

Judging by the Marshall's and Pet Smart it must have been on NB 405 where W Olympic Blvd goes under the freeway. About halfway between Santa Monica Blvd and 10.

I knew it was in the general area, but couldn't remember exactly where that shopping center was located.

[Guest happ]

Mother nature dropped some cold air on to us.  Most coast/ valley readings in 40's-low 50's this morning and more to come!  Then things go downhill fast due to downhill wind.  November average drop in temps unlike any other month [7°+]; great to look forward to.

 

52° [my location is part of a freaky set of hilltops [around 1000' and higher] Mt Washington/ El Sereno down to below Montebello/ Whittier Hill [banana belts].  San Rafael Hills: 48°  

 

11:30AM: 67.7°

[richard mann]

It would certainly be a good idea to setup a webcam page. I have some links to webcams in Socal that I could add, such as the Mt. Wilson Observatory in the San Gabriel Mountains, Palomar Mountain in San Diego County, the Huntington Beach Pier, etc.

 

Yeh hey Dan. 

 

With this looked at along with what I said above, go ahead and gather some different things together, e.g. web-cam site, whatever. And we'll put something together, with my doing the same.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I picked up .33" here in Orange from this storm, which is pretty good for the first storm of the season this far south.

[Alan]

Puddles frozen in the middle of the day - love it!

[Guest happ]

Puddles frozen in the middle of the day - love it!

 

Alan, did you record snowfall over the weekend? 

 

75 / 53

[Alan]

Alan, did you record snowfall over the weekend?

 

75 / 53

Only if a 1/8" layer of grapel / ice pellets count - we had a couple brief very heavy downpours Saturday afternoon that turned everything white.

 

1.60" total.

 

Saturday 37/29 Sunday 41/32 Monday 48/34 it's felt nice! Very gusty winds since last night.

 

Season total 4.15"

[Guest happ]

http://www.latimes.com/travel/california/la-trb-california-ski-resorts-20141103-story.html

 

"Southern California ski resorts are hopeful about the weekend's thin layer of snow that fell in the San Gabriel Mountains. It wasn't significant enough to think about opening, but it was enough for local Mountain High ski resort to crow "It's Snowvember!".

 

Mammoth Mountain ski area farther north got the real deal: 12 to 16 inches of snow fell at the Sierra resort during the weekend, and it has been making snow too.

 

Mammoth Mountain received more than a foot of snow this weekend and is making snow in anticipation of a Nov. 13 opening. (Peter Morning / Mammoth Mountain Ski Area)

 

"We have had the [snow] guns blazing since Friday and will keep them on as long as [temperatures] allow," a spokeswoman said in an email.

 

When will resorts open for the season amid the state's record drought? It's all weather-dependent, not just based on how much snow falls this month but also how cold it gets.

 

Mammoth is aiming for Nov. 13, with the first chair heading up the mountain at 8:30 a.m. (Mammoth does a countdown.) Lift tickets for the day cost just $50 each.

 

In the Lake Tahoe area, Heavenly and Northstar California plan to open Nov. 21, and Squaw Valley is aiming for Nov. 26.

 

Southern California ski resorts enjoyed an early dusting, but hot, dry weather is about to return. Mountain High near Wrightwood has assembled a "first snow" gallery on its Facebook page and is hoping for a mid-November opening. (Average opening date for the past decade is Nov. 16.)

 

Bear Mountain resort in Big Bear Lake closed its seasonal bike park and chair lift Saturday because of the inch or so of snow it received. Its website says the resort will return to summer activities for now, with no prediction of an opening date for skiing."

[Alan]

"Just $50!" What a deal LMAO!

[snow_wizard]

I doubt the ski resorts in Oregon will open up before Mammoth.

 

None of them will be opening soon.

[Guest happ]

I doubt the ski resorts in Oregon will open up before Mammoth.

 

Mammoth is 11,000',  Isn't Mt Hood the same elevation?

 

80 / 60

[snow_wizard]

Mammoth is 11,000',  Isn't Mt Hood the same elevation?

 

80 / 60

 

Up here 11,000 feet is in perpetual winter with glaciers.  None of the ski resorts are nearly that high.

[Guest happ]

Ridging looks to stick around well into next week!     

[richard mann]

-
The general scenario, certainly is an odd one this year "happ". 
 
— Sorta an "on / off" polarity type swing from one extreme to an / the other.
 
General digest is all that I can offer you here.
 
Regarding this polarity idea of mine here above, with what I look at toward generating the main colder air mass, future both movement along with general distribution potential focused projections that I do, I'm noting that, when and where, broader cold is in general regress (or receding daily more northward.), that its over-all force of movement is stronger. And so, with this, what I've pointed to more specifically more latitudinally, longitudinally, is more accentuated. This, while where considering cold's main "expansion" (or movement and spread) more south, this more over-all force of movement of cold being more weakened.
 
.. At this point, with its being in recession mode, more dense cold north, is moving through a short period of more stepped up pace east. This with cold (more general density) still remaining south, working to shear up ridging by degrees, if set to lose ground with no new supply line more south, to it. - http://www.ghcc.msfc...S/globalir.html
 
.. The continued ridging that you've alluded to, my estimate, will be the product more, of a next general slow-down of colder air east where looked at more over-all, and with this idea a steadily more meridional main (and broader.) pattern set up. — Though the 9th with cold's still being in recession north. .But continuing and if with cold's beginning to spread more southward again daily on the 10th. This, with a main period of more stepped up movement and pace of cold more east, not beginning again until the 13th or so. .And, with the over-all force of movement idea that I've suggested pointed to here above, not beginning to strengthen again until the 15th or so. 

 
Exasperating. ? .. Certainly somewhat. .. But the main solace that I can see here, is - and if again, the "polarity" of extremes, or "extents" perhaps better, appearing to be the case this year. 
 
— Cold delivery from the north, more strong and moving on warmer and more tropical air, .. set against, and with cold's general recession more (back) north, a more sketchy over-all circumstance, even more fully, north and south. .. Season, of course being in our favor here more generally, otherwise.

[Guest happ]

.Thanks for the reply, Richard.  As much as I find 90's to be unwanted in November I can live with heat so long as an occasional storm system drops the necessary rainfall/ snowfall to keep California out of drought.

[Dan the Weatherman]

.Thanks for the reply, Richard.  As much as I find 90's to be unwanted in November I can live with heat so long as an occasional storm system drops the necessary rainfall/ snowfall to keep California out of drought.

We usually get a number of warm Santa Ana winds from mid October to mid November and can get quite hot at times during this period as a result, and the pattern seems to have started later than normal this season due to the summer pattern taking longer to wind down.

The first storm of the season that really gets the fall pattern going usually arrives between the 1st and 3rd week of October, and it sometimes brings some rain and other years it just brings cloudiness and a cooler air mass. After that, then the first Santa Ana of the season arrives as the desert has cooled down and there is a trough in the Great Basin in which the surface high follows the departing storm along with upper level high pressure nosing into CA from the Pacific. This year that first storm arrived on Halloween, fortunately bringing us some rain, which led to this Santa Ana setup the last several days as high pressure moved in behind the departing storm and upper level high pressure nosed in from the west. The problem is that we are now in an Omega block setup, which keeps this dry weather going on for a long time, rather than having a more progressive pattern. 

Right now I am giving this pattern a pass, because it is fairly normal for this early in the season and we haven't had a lot of Santa Ana activity this year so far until now. However, this is a pattern that I don't want to see recur again and again from December through February that substantially worsens drought conditions around here. With the PDO being positive, I expect that this year will be better than the last couple of winters, but my confidence is lower because the El Nino hasn't developed to the point where I would like it to be in terms of strength.

[Guest happ]

We usually get a number of warm Santa Ana winds from mid October to mid November and can get quite hot at times during this period as a result, and the pattern seems to have started later than normal this season due to the summer pattern taking longer to wind down.

The first storm of the season that really gets the fall pattern going usually arrives between the 1st and 3rd week of October, and it sometimes brings some rain and other years it just brings cloudiness and a cooler air mass. After that, then the first Santa Ana of the season arrives as the desert has cooled down and there is a trough in the Great Basin in which the surface high follows the departing storm along with upper level high pressure nosing into CA from the Pacific. This year that first storm arrived on Halloween, fortunately bringing us some rain, which led to this Santa Ana setup the last several days as high pressure moved in behind the departing storm and upper level high pressure nosed in from the west. The problem is that we are now in an Omega block setup, which keeps this dry weather going on for a long time, rather than having a more progressive pattern. 

Right now I am giving this pattern a pass, because it is fairly normal for this early in the season and we haven't had a lot of Santa Ana activity this year so far until now. However, this is a pattern that I don't want to see recur again and again from December through February that substantially worsens drought conditions around here. With the PDO being positive, I expect that this year will be better than the last couple of winters, but my confidence is lower because the El Nino hasn't developed to the point where I would like it to be in terms of strength.

 

Agree, Dan, that it is way too early to start getting concerned about the rain year.  But November is often the start of storm systems penetrating this latitude; to lose another month of potential rainfall makes me nervous. 

 

As far as the heat; I couldn't find anything warmer than low 90's from Santa Barbara down to San Diego bay; so it could be worse.  But dry heat is generally tolerable in shade and evenings out on the patio, BBQ and watching TV [i.e. Lakers lose another game] w/ a warm breeze & no mosquitoes is also fine.

 

92 / 67

[Dan the Weatherman]

Agree, Dan, that it is way too early to start getting concerned about the rain year.  But November is often the start of storm systems penetrating this latitude; to lose another month of potential rainfall makes me nervous. 

 

As far as the heat; I couldn't find anything warmer than low 90's from Santa Barbara down to San Diego bay; so it could be worse.  But dry heat is generally tolerable in shade and evenings out on the patio, BBQ and watching TV [i.e. Lakers lose another game] w/ a warm breeze & no mosquitoes is also fine.

 

92 / 67

Dry heat does feel much better than when it is hot and humid, and this time of the year with the shorter days and drier air, it cools off rapidly in the evening.

[Guest happ]

Dry heat does feel much better than when it is hot and humid, and this time of the year with the shorter days and drier air, it cools off rapidly in the evening.

 

It doesn't cool off very fast in the foothills; several stations had minimums in the 70's this morning.

[richard mann]

We usually get a number of warm Santa Ana winds from mid October to mid November and can get quite hot at times during this period as a result, and the pattern seems to have started later than normal this season due to the summer pattern taking longer to wind down.

The first storm of the season that really gets the fall pattern going usually arrives between the 1st and 3rd week of October, and it sometimes brings some rain and other years it just brings cloudiness and a cooler air mass. After that, then the first Santa Ana of the season arrives as the desert has cooled down and there is a trough in the Great Basin in which the surface high follows the departing storm along with upper level high pressure nosing into CA from the Pacific. This year that first storm arrived on Halloween, fortunately bringing us some rain, which led to this Santa Ana setup the last several days as high pressure moved in behind the departing storm and upper level high pressure nosed in from the west. The problem is that we are now in an Omega block setup, which keeps this dry weather going on for a long time, rather than having a more progressive pattern. 

Right now I am giving this pattern a pass, because it is fairly normal for this early in the season and we haven't had a lot of Santa Ana activity this year so far until now. However, this is a pattern that I don't want to see recur again and again from December through February that substantially worsens drought conditions around here. With the PDO being positive, I expect that this year will be better than the last couple of winters, but my confidence is lower because the El Nino hasn't developed to the point where I would like it to be in terms of strength.

.. Appreciate the post Dan.

 

— Certainly informative, generally.

[Dan the Weatherman]

.. Appreciate the post Dan.

 

— Certainly informative, generally.

Thanks!