April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Fake news. We need Phil’s second cousin to move next door to you so we can verify!

[Jesse]

Afraid that summer could be brutal again. June 2017 started off w/ 110+ in Sacramento valley

We are way overdue for a cool one throughout the west. But I won’t hold my breath.

[Front Ranger]

You can misconstrue facts on a level well above my stratospheric condo.

You can say whatever feels right.

 

Doesn't make it correct. Show me one example of me misconstruing facts.

 

Prediction: you can't, you won't, and you'll use a lame copout as an excuse.

[Phil]

Ok. That was actually sort of clever.

 

I’m curious if you read my post or just skimmed it and assumed I was agreeing with Phil that Tim is lying. Because that wasn’t the case.

You having a stroke or something?

 

For the record, I don’t think Tim lies either. He just doesn’t have a weather station in his backyard and estimates etc etc etc.

This seems reasonable.

[Jesse]

I’m a little surprised that lightning strikes aren’t showing up anywhere in Oregon or Washington this morning. Even the east side.

 

Wonder if the lightning map is working.

[Jesse]

You having a stroke or something?

 

 

Oh Phil, you get so personal so quickly.

 

At first you were implying that Tim was lying (this was probably mostly trolling). Then you went to a more reasonable stance, which I do agree with.

[Front Ranger]

This forum is soaked in bias of all kinds. Trust no one, and no "facts" or "news".

[Phil]

I don't use hyperbole. Except when trolling.

 

Hard to see from your hot air balloon.

I think flatironing has more to do with the excessive relocation of goalposts, as opposed to hyperbole.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

To be fair, Andrew probably reports temps in a wider variety of conditions than you do. Most of us seem to sporadically report conditions, warm or cold..

 

This week!

 

Sunday: 59/32

Monday: 72/33

Tuesday: 78/39

Wednesday: 77/44

Thursday: 71/47

[Deweydog]

You can say whatever feels right.

 

Doesn't make it correct. Show me one example of me misconstruing facts.

 

Prediction: you can't, you won't, and you'll use a lame copout as an excuse.

Are you from Missouri?

[Phil]

Oh Phil, you get so personal so quickly.

 

At first you were implying that Tim was lying (this was probably mostly trolling). Then you went to a more reasonable stance, which I do ageee with.

Sorry man, I meant to put an emoticon there. Wasn’t supposed to be a personal attack.

 

I got confused because you wrote the post hours after I’d clarified that I wasn’t accusing Tim of lying. I didn’t really think beyond that.

[Jesse]

Sorry man, I meant to put an emoticon there. Wasn’t supposed to be a personal attack.

 

I got confused because you wrote the post hours after I’d clarified that I wasn’t accusing Tim of lying. Didn’t really think beyond that.

I think MossMan came in earlier and skimmed through every fifth post before finally Good Lording mine, so it threw things off, timing wise. I blame seasonal lag.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

“Heat”.

 

Lmao

Yes, I consider 80+ degree weather especially in April to be hot weather regardless of humidity. Anytime you have to turn your AC on in the car or at home I would consider a way to battle the "heat".

[Phil]

Lol..record-shattering +NAO on the 12z GFS through the end of week two.

 

“Going out with a bang” is putting it lightly.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

This week!

 

Sunday: 59/32

Monday: 72/33

Tuesday: 78/39

Wednesday: 77/44

Thursday: 71/47

 

 

Sorry to report that it was 8 degrees higher at my house this week than your highest temperature.    That happened and you can't change it no matter how hard you try.  

 

There was also no frost at our house this week.  

 

And it seems pretty silly to be complaining so vehemently about those temperatures this week.  

 

Does that look miserably hot and disgusting to you, Phil?   

[James Jones]

Any thoughts on the FV3-GFS that's been added to Tropical Tidbits Phil? I have no idea what's different about it from the old GFS. 

[Jesse]

Lol..record-shattering +NAO on the 12z GFS through the end of week two.

 

“Going out with a bang” is putting it lightly.

 

Wow. Are bounce backs like this normal when transitioning? I want -NAO back.

[Guest happ]

Lol..record-shattering +NAO on the 12z GFS through the end of week two.

 

“Going out with a bang” is putting it lightly.

 

 

 

Looks coolish for SoCal    could be worse. Like in PacNW 

[Jesse]

Looks like the NWS finally updated the chart of record warmest and coldest months/seasons and years for PDX. Through February 2018.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg44.pdf

 

Pretty sobering. Showcases the absolute domination of warm records from 2014-17 now.

[Phil]

Wow. Are bounce backs like this normal when transitioning? I want -NAO back.

Oh yes, large vascillations between quasi-stable modes are commonplace during interdecadal scale climate changes. Especially when transitioning between seasons.

 

In this case, we’re actually lucky, because we know what’s causing the +NAO/+NAM. Sometimes, it’s a more subtle reason(s), in which case it can mirror the old regime so well on the surface that you’d never know anything was changing in the nether-regions of the system.

[Jesse]

A recap:

 

-Second warmest January on record in 2018.

 

-Record warmest February set in 2015 then broken in 2016.

 

-Record warm March in 2015.

 

-Record warm April in 2016.

 

-Second warmest May on record in 2016.

 

-Warmest June on record (by nearly 3 degrees) in 2015.

 

-Second warmest July on record in 2015. Fifth warmest in 2014.

 

-Warmest August on record in 2017, second warmest in 2014, fourth warmest in 2015.

 

-Warmest September on record in 2014.

 

-2014 and 2015 tying for warmest October on record.

 

-Warmest November on record in 2016.

 

-Fifth warmest December on record in 2014.

[Front Ranger]

I think flatironing has more to do with the excessive relocation of goalposts, as opposed to hyperbole.

It's a catch-all copout.

 

Tim is generally honest, and so am I. I don't seriously hyperbolize and I don't move goal posts. No matter how frustrated someone gets, they have no case if they try to call me dishonest.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the NWS finally updated the chart of record warmest and coldest months/seasons and years for PDX. Through February 2018.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg44.pdf

 

Pretty sobering. Showcases the absolute domination of warm records from 2014-17 now.

I just watched Schindler's List, and now this. Geez.

[Jesse]

Also,

 

Warmest overall year on record in 2015, second warmest in 2016.

 

Warmest winter on record in 2014-15, third warmest in 2015-16.

 

Warmest spring on record in 2016, third warmest in 2015.

 

Warmest summer on record in 2015, second warmest in 2017, fourth warmest in 2014.

 

Warmest “deep summer” (July 6- September 5) on record in 2017, second in 2014, fourth in 2015.

 

Warmest Autumn on record in 2014, second warmest in 2015.

[Front Ranger]

A recap:

 

-Second warmest January on record in 2018.

 

-Record warmest February set in 2015 then broken in 2016.

 

-Record warm March in 2015.

 

-Record warm April in 2016.

 

-Second warmest May on record in 2016.

 

-Warmest June on record (by nearly 3 degrees) in 2015.

 

-Second warmest July on record in 2015. Fifth warmest in 2014.

 

-Warmest August on record in 2017, second warmest in 2014, fourth warmest in 2015.

 

-Warmest September on record in 2014.

 

-2014 and 2015 tying for warmest October on record.

 

-Warmest November on record in 2016.

 

-Fifth warmest December on record in 2014.

It probably won't make you feel better, but about half of those don't apply to OLM. For some odd reason...

[Jesse]

It probably won't make you feel better, but about half of those don't apply to OLM. For some odd reason...

Just reporting the facts for PDX. How I feel about it doesn’t really factor in.

[Front Ranger]

Just reporting the facts for PDX. How I feel about it doesn’t really factor in.

You reported you feel sobered by it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We are way overdue for a cool one throughout the west. But I won’t hold my breath.

 

We've been way overdue for Jan 1950 as well, but we are still waiting.  God D**n mother nature.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A recap:

 

-Second warmest January on record in 2018.

 

-Record warmest February set in 2015 then broken in 2016.

 

-Record warm March in 2015.

 

-Record warm April in 2016.

 

-Second warmest May on record in 2016.

 

-Warmest June on record (by nearly 3 degrees) in 2015.

 

-Second warmest July on record in 2015. Fifth warmest in 2014.

 

-Warmest August on record in 2017, second warmest in 2014, fourth warmest in 2015.

 

-Warmest September on record in 2014.

 

-2014 and 2015 tying for warmest October on record.

 

-Warmest November on record in 2016.

 

-Fifth warmest December on record in 2014.

Yet I would still take this period over the 1997-2003 period.

[Phil]

Wow. Are bounce backs like this normal when transitioning? I want -NAO back.

Big changes are coming, though! We have +AAM propagating poleward now..this peaks (soon) as the anticyclones underneath the westerly river crest poleward and begin breaking. At which point blocking will explode back onto the scene.

 

Probably sometime during the middle/2nd half of May, waves will start breaking all over the place and we’ll have our blocking back.

 

Here a (mildly annotated) U-wind hovmoller I made on the ESRL page. Note the SSW impact on the high latitudes as well as the recoil in the tropics (and subsequent poleward +AAM propagation, which is happening now).

 

[Jesse]

12z Euro shows about as prolonged a ridgy pattern as you can get in early May. Takes the edge off the real high end warmth though.

 

Tim: Sounds perfect.

 

Dewey: It will cool down after it warms up after it cools down again.

[ShawniganLake]

Is the air sinking as it comes over to the east side of the island?

It can be in west or NW wind. We can be sunny and much warmer than areas further south with that. We see the strongest marine air cooling with an ESE wind at the surface, at least in Shawnigan Lake.

[ShawniganLake]

12z Euro shows about as prolonged a ridgy pattern as you can get in early May. Takes the edge off the real high end warmth though.

 

Tim: Sounds perfect.

 

Dewey: It will cool down after it warms up after it cools down again.

So much for that cool MAM I was expecting. Kind of surprised to be honest.

[Jesse]

So much for that cool MAM I was expecting. Kind of surprised to be honest.

Yeah, same.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looking more and more likely we will see another heat wave next week. This time I don't see a strong crash afterwards. This might be a prolonged warm/hot spell through at least the first 2 weeks of May. I wouldn't be shocked to see 90+ temperatures.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really think Tim should unplug for a few months.

[Jesse]

Looking more and more likely we will see another heat wave next week. This time I don't see a strong crash afterwards. This might be a prolonged warm/hot spell through at least the first 2 weeks of May. I wouldn't be shocked to see 90+ temperatures.

 

Like yesterday?

 

The 12Z runs actually toned the potential for heat down, if anything. 

[Phil]

Big changes are coming, though! We have +AAM propagating poleward now..this peaks (soon) as the anticyclones underneath the westerly river crest poleward and begin breaking. At which point blocking will explode back onto the scene.

 

Probably sometime during the middle/2nd half of May, waves will start breaking all over the place and we’ll have our blocking back.

 

Here a (mildly annotated) U-wind hovmoller I made on the ESRL page. Note the SSW impact on the high latitudes as well as the recoil in the tropics (and subsequent poleward +AAM propagation, which is happening now).

 

The first week of May will still be super +NAO/+PNA, however.

 

The big flip will start in the high latitudes during the middle of May (after the 10th) manifesting first as an anticyclonic wavebreak on the Eurasian side of the Arctic, eventually propagating into the NAO domain and displacing the TPV from Greenland/Baffin Bay into the Eastern US.

 

While this happens, the west will still be sitting under a ridge, but this process will likely initiate a retrogression of the ridge offshore. How long it takes for that to occur is questionable, but it will probably take until the very end of May for -PNA/western trough to establish again. Could happen faster, or it might take a bit longer. We’ll have to wait and see.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Like yesterday?

 

The 12Z runs actually toned the potential for heat down, if anything. 

 

Where it matters most, I called for 85 in the contest so I actually underestimated the heat. Yesterday morning I started sweating outside so I upped my prediction to mid to upper 80s with an outside chance of 90. Just a gut feeling at this time.

 

12z EURO would look hotter but a weak disturbance breaks through the ridge late in the run. I'm expecting that to be gone in future runs. Otherwise the ridge is going to look fat and healthy.

[Deweydog]

12z Euro shows about as prolonged a ridgy pattern as you can get in early May. Takes the edge off the real high end warmth though.

 

Tim: Sounds perfect.

 

Dewey: It will cool down after it warms up after it cools down again.

It will be interesting to see if something interesting happens.