Jesse Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Where it matters most, I called for 85 in the contest so I actually underestimated the heat. Yesterday morning I started sweating outside so I upped my prediction to mid to upper 80s with an outside chance of 90. Just a gut feeling at this time. 12z EURO would look hotter but a weak disturbance breaks through the ridge late in the run. I'm expecting that to be gone in future runs. Otherwise the ridge is going to look fat and healthy. Why? Some sort of weak disturbance brushing a ridge in early May would be pretty normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Got a hunch it's not going to make it to the forecasted high of 63 today. 55 at noon. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 12z Euro shows about as prolonged a ridgy pattern as you can get in early May. Takes the edge off the real high end warmth though. Tim: Sounds perfect. Dewey: It will cool down after it warms up after it cools down again.MossMan: Yay!!!!!!!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 It will be interesting to see if something interesting happens. If interesting means new material from me, you, Tim or MossMan I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 If interesting means new material from me, you, Tim or MossMan I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Ice burn! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Got a hunch it's not going to make it to the forecasted high of 63 today. 55 at noon.That was never going to happen. Classic mistake in this situation. Once it roars inland... its not going to be backing off. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Ice burn! I think that was a FroYoBro original. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 I can't wait for the wave break on the Eurasian side so Jesse can have clouds and rain in June. I can't wait for it now, or maybe I can't wait for it later. We'll see. Yo da man Phil! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 This yuppie just took apart and cleaned his 4yr old vacuum. It has had a hard life with 3-5 dogs and child! Going to get even more of a workout in my new east side yuppie house complete with carpet! Would have rather been out enjoying a lovely sunny and warm day on my day off but this is the next best thing!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 The first week of May will still be super +NAO/+PNA, however. The big flip will start in the high latitudes during the middle of May (after the 10th) manifesting first as an anticyclonic wavebreak on the Eurasian side of the Arctic, eventually propagating into the NAO domain and displacing the TPV from Greenland/Baffin Bay into the Eastern US. While this happens, the west will still be sitting under a ridge, but this process will likely initiate a retrogression of the ridge offshore. How long it takes for that to occur is questionable, but it will probably take until the very end of May for -PNA/western trough to establish again. Could happen faster, or it might take a bit longer. We’ll have to wait and see.There are few things in life one can count on, but Phil calling for a cool June is one of them. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Upper 60’s here. Really nice afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 There are few things in life one can count on, but Phil calling for a cool June is one of them.Are the words “cool” or “June” anywhere in that post? #flatironing Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Must be nice to inherit a lot of money or marry a sugar mama. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Are the words “cool” or “June” anywhere in that post? #flatironingGood point. You probably never actually said those words about previous Junes either, you just provided lots of strong hints. #philintheblanks Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Lots of beautiful rain coming up through the valley! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 We should all love each other like Kanye. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 At the bank. People are complaining about the rain! Thought I would report that! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 We should all love each other like Kanye.If we all loved each other as much as Kanye loves himself, the world would be such a better place. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 I see Eugene had a thundershower this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Why? Some sort of weak disturbance brushing a ridge in early May would be pretty normal.The disturbance is very weak. I have seen this many times where the disturbance is gone in later runs. Plus it's going up against a MAMMOTH block. It's practically the size of the continental USA. This is one of the biggest blocks I have ever seen away from Winter. Even if the weak disturbance breaks through, the ridge is just going to regenerate itself. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Good point. You probably never actually said those words about previous Junes either, you just provided lots of strong hints. #philintheblanksCategory 5 Flatironing right here. All disinterested parties ought to evacuate the forum. Failiure to heed this warning may result in migraines, aneurisms, and/or severe hemorrhaging. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 If we all loved each other as much as I love myself, the world would be such a better place.I agree. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 The disturbance is very weak. I have seen this many times where the disturbance is gone in later runs. Plus it's going up against a MAMMOTH block. It's practically the size of the continental USA. This is one of the biggest blocks I have ever seen away from Winter. Even if the weak disturbance breaks through, the ridge is just going to regenerate itself. Ridges aren’t closed systems. They don’t create and/or regenerate themselves. They’re produced as a result of something else. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 The disturbance is very weak. I have seen this many times where the disturbance is gone in later runs. Plus it's going up against a MAMMOTH block. It's practically the size of the continental USA. This is one of the biggest blocks I have ever seen away from Winter. Even if the weak disturbance breaks through, the ridge is just going to regenerate itself. The block is nothing too crazy. I also don't think things work that way. EPS shows lower heights that even the operational for days 6-10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Looks like the NWS finally updated the chart of record warmest and coldest months/seasons and years for PDX. Through February 2018. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg44.pdf Pretty sobering. Showcases the absolute domination of warm records from 2014-17 now. February 2061 is going to suck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Sure would be! But it’s been just as nice putting the hard work in and earning it yourself, and being responsible with that money so you can live comfortably. Amen! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 I agree.I knew as soon as I posted that, you'd post that. Doesn't make me an awesome forecaster, you're just that predictable. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Category 5 Flatironing right here. All disinterested parties ought to evacuate the forum. Failiure to heed this warning may result in migraines, aneurisms, and/or severe hemorrhaging.Get out or cop out! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 February 2061 is going to suck I noticed the same typo. Those numbers would probably be well below normal for February at that point (using the 2031-60 averages). Just a horribly winter-like month smack in the middle of springtime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Ridges aren’t closed systems. They don’t create and/or regenerate themselves. They’re produced as a result of something else.Careful. You're talking to the guy who called this ridging weeks ago, based on a lethal combination of gut feeling, sweaty armpits, and TWC app. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Looks like perhaps 1-2 hours of quenching glory inbound for the Portland area. Seems that we are already in mid-summer mode with celebrating the tiniest victories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 I noticed the same typo. Those numbers would probably be well below normal for February at that point (using the 2031-60 averages). Just a horribly winter-like month smack in the middle of springtime. The date palms won't even know what hit 'em! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Ridges aren’t closed systems. They don’t create and/or regenerate themselves. They’re produced as a result of something else.Yes and that something else can regenerate the ridge and that's what we see around day 9/10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Been a solid band of rain since 12:30 or so. GF says it's been raining in Springfield since she got to work at 8. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Careful. You're talking to the guy who called this ridging weeks ago, based on a lethal combination of gut feeling, sweaty armpits, and TWC app.Now I’m the one sweating. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 The block is nothing too crazy. I also don't think things work that way. EPS shows lower heights that even the operational for days 6-10.We will see. You have a cold bias so it's understandable you are downplaying it's significance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Interesting that the edge of the low clouds has been hanging almost in the exact same spot near Lake Samish. Hanging at 58 in Bothell here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 I knew as soon as I posted that, you'd post that. Doesn't make me an awesome forecaster, you're just that predictable. You just know me so well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 27, 2018 Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Yes and that something else can regenerate the ridge and that's what we see around day 9/10.When you are forecasting something, try not let the urge to predict what you want to happen cloud your judgement. Just some friendly advice. We are all guilty of it sometimes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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