April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Where it matters most, I called for 85 in the contest so I actually underestimated the heat. Yesterday morning I started sweating outside so I upped my prediction to mid to upper 80s with an outside chance of 90. Just a gut feeling at this time.

 

12z EURO would look hotter but a weak disturbance breaks through the ridge late in the run. I'm expecting that to be gone in future runs. Otherwise the ridge is going to look fat and healthy.

 

Why?

 

Some sort of weak disturbance brushing a ridge in early May would be pretty normal.

[Geos]

Got a hunch it's not going to make it to the forecasted high of 63 today. 55 at noon.

[MossMan]

12z Euro shows about as prolonged a ridgy pattern as you can get in early May. Takes the edge off the real high end warmth though.

 

Tim: Sounds perfect.

 

Dewey: It will cool down after it warms up after it cools down again.

MossMan: Yay!!!!!!!!

[Jesse]

It will be interesting to see if something interesting happens.

 

If interesting means new material from me, you, Tim or MossMan I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

[Deweydog]

If interesting means new material from me, you, Tim or MossMan I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

Ice burn!

[TT-SEA]

Got a hunch it's not going to make it to the forecasted high of 63 today. 55 at noon.

That was never going to happen. Classic mistake in this situation. Once it roars inland... its not going to be backing off.

[Jesse]

Ice burn!

 

I think that was a FroYoBro original.

[The Swamp]

I can't wait for the wave break on the Eurasian side so Jesse can have clouds and rain in June.   I can't wait for it now, or maybe I can't wait for it later.  We'll see.

 

Yo da man Phil!

[MossMan]

This yuppie just took apart and cleaned his 4yr old vacuum. It has had a hard life with 3-5 dogs and child! Going to get even more of a workout in my new east side yuppie house complete with carpet! Would have rather been out enjoying a lovely sunny and warm day on my day off but this is the next best thing!!

[Front Ranger]

The first week of May will still be super +NAO/+PNA, however.

 

The big flip will start in the high latitudes during the middle of May (after the 10th) manifesting first as an anticyclonic wavebreak on the Eurasian side of the Arctic, eventually propagating into the NAO domain and displacing the TPV from Greenland/Baffin Bay into the Eastern US.

 

While this happens, the west will still be sitting under a ridge, but this process will likely initiate a retrogression of the ridge offshore. How long it takes for that to occur is questionable, but it will probably take until the very end of May for -PNA/western trough to establish again. Could happen faster, or it might take a bit longer. We’ll have to wait and see.

There are few things in life one can count on, but Phil calling for a cool June is one of them.

[ShawniganLake]

Upper 60’s here. Really nice afternoon.

[Phil]

There are few things in life one can count on, but Phil calling for a cool June is one of them.

Are the words “cool” or “June” anywhere in that post?

 

#flatironing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Must be nice to inherit a lot of money or marry a sugar mama.

[Front Ranger]

Are the words “cool” or “June” anywhere in that post?

 

#flatironing

Good point. You probably never actually said those words about previous Junes either, you just provided lots of strong hints.

 

#philintheblanks

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of beautiful rain coming up through the valley!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We should all love each other like Kanye.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At the bank. People are complaining about the rain! Thought I would report that!

[Front Ranger]

We should all love each other like Kanye.

If we all loved each other as much as Kanye loves himself, the world would be such a better place.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see Eugene had a thundershower this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Why?

 

Some sort of weak disturbance brushing a ridge in early May would be pretty normal.

The disturbance is very weak. I have seen this many times where the disturbance is gone in later runs. Plus it's going up against a MAMMOTH block. It's practically the size of the continental USA. This is one of the biggest blocks I have ever seen away from Winter. Even if the weak disturbance breaks through, the ridge is just going to regenerate itself.

 

[Phil]

Good point. You probably never actually said those words about previous Junes either, you just provided lots of strong hints.

 

#philintheblanks

Category 5 Flatironing right here. All disinterested parties ought to evacuate the forum. Failiure to heed this warning may result in migraines, aneurisms, and/or severe hemorrhaging.

[Phil]

If we all loved each other as much as I love myself, the world would be such a better place.

I agree.

[Phil]

The disturbance is very weak. I have seen this many times where the disturbance is gone in later runs. Plus it's going up against a MAMMOTH block. It's practically the size of the continental USA. This is one of the biggest blocks I have ever seen away from Winter. Even if the weak disturbance breaks through, the ridge is just going to regenerate itself.

 

Ridges aren’t closed systems. They don’t create and/or regenerate themselves.

 

They’re produced as a result of something else.

[MossMan]

[Jesse]

The disturbance is very weak. I have seen this many times where the disturbance is gone in later runs. Plus it's going up against a MAMMOTH block. It's practically the size of the continental USA. This is one of the biggest blocks I have ever seen away from Winter. Even if the weak disturbance breaks through, the ridge is just going to regenerate itself.

 

The block is nothing too crazy. I also don't think things work that way.

 

EPS shows lower heights that even the operational for days 6-10.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like the NWS finally updated the chart of record warmest and coldest months/seasons and years for PDX. Through February 2018.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg44.pdf

 

Pretty sobering. Showcases the absolute domination of warm records from 2014-17 now.

 

February 2061 is going to suck

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sure would be! But it’s been just as nice putting the hard work in and earning it yourself, and being responsible with that money so you can live comfortably.

 

Amen!

[Front Ranger]

I agree.

I knew as soon as I posted that, you'd post that. Doesn't make me an awesome forecaster, you're just that predictable.

[Front Ranger]

Category 5 Flatironing right here. All disinterested parties ought to evacuate the forum. Failiure to heed this warning may result in migraines, aneurisms, and/or severe hemorrhaging.

Get out or cop out!

[Jesse]

February 2061 is going to suck

 

I noticed the same typo.

 

Those numbers would probably be well below normal for February at that point (using the 2031-60 averages). Just a horribly winter-like month smack in the middle of springtime.

[Front Ranger]

Ridges aren’t closed systems. They don’t create and/or regenerate themselves.

 

They’re produced as a result of something else.

Careful. You're talking to the guy who called this ridging weeks ago, based on a lethal combination of gut feeling, sweaty armpits, and TWC app.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like perhaps 1-2 hours of quenching glory inbound for the Portland area.

 

Seems that we are already in mid-summer mode with celebrating the tiniest victories.

[BLI snowman]

I noticed the same typo.

 

Those numbers would probably be well below normal for February at that point (using the 2031-60 averages). Just a horribly winter-like month smack in the middle of springtime.

 

The date palms won't even know what hit 'em!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Ridges aren’t closed systems. They don’t create and/or regenerate themselves.

 

They’re produced as a result of something else.

Yes and that something else can regenerate the ridge and that's what we see around day 9/10.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Been a solid band of rain since 12:30 or so. GF says it's been raining in Springfield since she got to work at 8.

[Phil]

Careful. You're talking to the guy who called this ridging weeks ago, based on a lethal combination of gut feeling, sweaty armpits, and TWC app.

Now I’m the one sweating.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The block is nothing too crazy. I also don't think things work that way.

 

EPS shows lower heights that even the operational for days 6-10.

We will see. You have a cold bias so it's understandable you are downplaying it's significance.

[Geos]

Interesting that the edge of the low clouds has been hanging almost in the exact same spot near Lake Samish. Hanging at 58 in Bothell here.

 

[Phil]

I knew as soon as I posted that, you'd post that. Doesn't make me an awesome forecaster, you're just that predictable.

You just know me so well.

[Jesse]

Yes and that something else can regenerate the ridge and that's what we see around day 9/10.

When you are forecasting something, try not let the urge to predict what you want to happen cloud your judgement. Just some friendly advice. We are all guilty of it sometimes.