Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 We're never as due as we think we are for weather we likey. We haven't had a cooler than average May in 6 years. #notdue #coolmayssuckforlawncare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 We haven't had a cooler than average May in 6 years. #notdue #coolmayssuckforlawncareHaha! I talked about my grass so that last one was quite a zinger! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 00Z GFS looks to be more in line with what the EPS and GFS ensembles have been suggesting. Some flatter ridging next weekend followed by a troughier pattern the following week. Quite a dry run overall... the troughs don't linger over us for long. And next weekend still looks very nice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 00z GFS also does away with a really warm Tuesday. That would be nice but won’t hold my breath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 A natural grass enhancement product arrives Tuesday evening. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 A natural grass enhancement product arrives Tuesday evening. Rainn? Might be getting a smaller package Sunday as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 00z GFS also does away with a really warm Tuesday. That would be nice but won’t hold my breath. Everything seems to come a little faster during the transitions this year. 00Z GFS shows 3 nice weekends (including the one we just started) with a little rain coming in the middle of the next 2 weeks. That is a perfect road map for summer. Lets stick to that script. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 But there is something else: the high pressure north of us has not been as extreme (high) during the past several decades and thus is less likely to cause cold air to push into our region. There are two factors contributing to the weakened high pressure extremes. First, cold air is more dense and tends to cause higher pressure. But there is something else: global climate models suggest that the amplitude of large scale weather features will tend to lessen under global warming. So highs and lows will become weaker in the midlatitudes as the earth warms. I have done some of this analysis myself with past doctoral student Matt Brewer and this finding is quite robust.What Cliff is describing here are low frequency variations in the structure of the northern annular mode. These variations are driven by changes in eddy fluxes and wave activity fluxes modulated by differential heating gradients and quasi-stable resonances in the tropical circulo-convective system, not to mention their non-linear responses to orbital forcing at preferred inertial magnitudes on longer timescales. Just to name a few examples. This crap has been happening since well before we started pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and it will continue long after we’re gone. I don’t understand why we blame ourselves for every d**n climate anomaly that pops up. It’s so dumb and pedantic. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 What Cliff is describing here are low frequency variations in the structure of the northern annular mode. These variations are driven by changes in eddy fluxes and wave activity fluxes modulated by differential heating gradients and quasi-stable resonances in the tropical circulo-convective system, not to mention their non-linear responses to orbital forcing at preferred inertial magnitudes on longer timescales. Just to name a few examples. This crap has been happening since well before we started pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and it will continue long after we’re gone. I don’t understand why we blame ourselves for every d**n climate anomaly that pops up. It’s so dumb and pedantic. Seems like Cliff Mass is often debunking the hype of global warming. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 00z is looking like a pretty significant outlier for next weekend on the ensembles. The majority seem to want to keep us in a troughy pattern throughout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Cliff Mass takes a shot at explaining the lack of arctic outbreaks in the last couple decades... http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/05/decreasing-cold-waves-most-potent-sign.htmlDepressing Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 00z is looking like a pretty significant outlier for next weekend on the ensembles. The majority seem to want to keep us in a troughy pattern throughout. 819354AD-AA48-4148-B104-A0A306C4C851.png I'm really liking the look of that big Tuesday night crash, could bring our most intense rain in awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Seems like Cliff Mass is often debunking the hype of global warming.Okay, but he blamed the +AO/western ridging on CO^2, and claimed that enhanced Arctic warming is somehow unique to radiative forcing from GHGes. Both of those claims are outrageous, especially the second one. These exact climatic boundary conditions have been reproduced by the system many times during the mid/late Holocene, without any anthropogenic help. It’s very clear in the majority of proxy reconstructions. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 I'm really liking the look of that big Tuesday night crash, could bring our most intense rain in awhile.Yes I honestly can’t wait. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 IMHO, we’d probably be better off dropping climate models altogether, in favor of more thorough paleoclimatology..IE: “climate analoging”. It’s amazing how many of these ocean-atmosphere oscillations have remained (largely) stable over hundreds of thousands of years. In some cases, the empirical orthogonal functions are largely the same, even from interglacial to interglacial. It’s baffling, but potentially very convenient for us if we’d just drop the obsession with garbage climate models. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 First morning at the new place! Just lovely, and so quiet other than the birds singing! Sun! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Bit of a model battle ongoing for next weekend. GFS hasn’t backed down yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Looks like it may be a solid wkend Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Looking at a few webcams up near our family cabin at Watch Lake. Looks like the ice is out. Locals say the first week of May is pretty standard but it is a little late from more recent years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Bit of a model battle ongoing for next weekend. GFS hasn’t backed down yet.12Z GFS is totally on board with warmth next weekend. Even the rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday looks unimpressive. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 12Z GFS is totally on board with warmth next weekend. Even the rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday looks unimpressive. Looks absolutely disgusting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Fortunately the 06z ensembles looked great. Hoping the operational GFS is an outlier again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Looks absolutely disgusting.Looks beautiful... lots of outdoor activities for Mother's Day! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 I guess we are also ignoring the EPS completely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 I guess we are also ignoring the EPS completely. The EPS was warm for next weekend. Of course it looks muted. Always does after day 5 or 6. Not cold and wet. That is all I care about. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 The EPS was warm for next weekend. Of course it looks muted. Always does after day 5 or 6. Not cold and wet. That is all I care about.The weekend will probably be dry and sunny , but do we really need to have another ******* heatwave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 The weekend will probably be dry and sunny , but do we really need to have another f***** heatwave. I don't care really about the temperature. As long as the sun is out and it's dry then I am happy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Fortunately the 06z ensembles looked great. Hoping the operational GFS is an outlier again. 161A9051-D7F0-42CC-85DB-CEC001A7B4AA.png12z ensemble looks pretty close to climo. Operational is a warm outlier but there are a few more warm members. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 FWIW, roughly 1/3rd of the 00z EPS members develop western ridging of near record breaking amplitude (at/above the 90th percentile in the normal distribution of 500mb height anomalies). That’s pretty significant. There’s a decent chance that western North America will actually be “ridgiest” region on the planet this month, relative to average. One of the last gasps of our old WPAC/off-equator forcing regime, in that regard. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 FWIW, roughly 1/3rd of the 00z EPS members develop western ridging of near record breaking amplitude (at/above the 90th percentile in the normal distribution of 500mb height anomalies). That’s pretty significant. There’s a decent chance that western North America will actually be “ridgiest” region on the planet this month, relative to average. One last throwback to the old regime in that regard, I guess. It’s going down kicking and screaming.You’ve been saying this stuff for years. Just one more record warm month then western troughing forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 You’ve been spewing this nonsense for years. Just one more record warm month then western troughing forever. It probably feels like years to you. In reality I’ve only been saying it since February. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 It probably feels like years to you. In reality I’ve only been saying if since February.Nah. 2013 was going to be the big year that we turned the corner. Then 2016, then 2017. Now we are in the middle of 2018 and you are still dangling the carrot. I have trouble buying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 We've got a cynic! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Anyone want a Costco dog? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 We've got a cynic!Relish these moments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Relish these moments.Mustard? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Mustard?Are you at the one on 192nd? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Are you at the one on 192nd?Airport Way. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 12z ensembles show the operational as an outlier, but more members seem to be trending that way. At this point it’s probably safe to bet on another heat wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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