May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

We're never as due as we think we are for weather we likey.

 

We haven't had a cooler than average May in 6 years.

 

#notdue

 

#coolmayssuckforlawncare

[Deweydog]

We haven't had a cooler than average May in 6 years.

 

#notdue

 

#coolmayssuckforlawncare

Haha! I talked about my grass so that last one was quite a zinger!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS looks to be more in line with what the EPS and GFS ensembles have been suggesting. Some flatter ridging next weekend followed by a troughier pattern the following week.

 

Quite a dry run overall... the troughs don't linger over us for long.    And next weekend still looks very nice.  

[Jesse]

00z GFS also does away with a really warm Tuesday. That would be nice but won’t hold my breath.

[Deweydog]

A natural grass enhancement product arrives Tuesday evening.

[Jesse]

A natural grass enhancement product arrives Tuesday evening.

 

Rainn?

 

Might be getting a smaller package Sunday as well.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS also does away with a really warm Tuesday. That would be nice but won’t hold my breath.

 

Everything seems to come a little faster during the transitions this year.

 

00Z GFS shows 3 nice weekends (including the one we just started) with a little rain coming in the middle of the next 2 weeks.     That is a perfect road map for summer.    Lets stick to that script.  

[Phil]

But there is something else: the high pressure north of us has not been as extreme (high) during the past several decades and thus is less likely to cause cold air to push into our region. There are two factors contributing to the weakened high pressure extremes. First, cold air is more dense and tends to cause higher pressure.

 

But there is something else: global climate models suggest that the amplitude of large scale weather features will tend to lessen under global warming. So highs and lows will become weaker in the midlatitudes as the earth warms. I have done some of this analysis myself with past doctoral student Matt Brewer and this finding is quite robust.

What Cliff is describing here are low frequency variations in the structure of the northern annular mode. These variations are driven by changes in eddy fluxes and wave activity fluxes modulated by differential heating gradients and quasi-stable resonances in the tropical circulo-convective system, not to mention their non-linear responses to orbital forcing at preferred inertial magnitudes on longer timescales. Just to name a few examples.

 

This crap has been happening since well before we started pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and it will continue long after we’re gone. I don’t understand why we blame ourselves for every d**n climate anomaly that pops up. It’s so dumb and pedantic.

[TT-SEA]

What Cliff is describing here are low frequency variations in the structure of the northern annular mode. These variations are driven by changes in eddy fluxes and wave activity fluxes modulated by differential heating gradients and quasi-stable resonances in the tropical circulo-convective system, not to mention their non-linear responses to orbital forcing at preferred inertial magnitudes on longer timescales. Just to name a few examples.

 

This crap has been happening since well before we started pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and it will continue long after we’re gone. I don’t understand why we blame ourselves for every d**n climate anomaly that pops up. It’s so dumb and pedantic.

 

Seems like Cliff Mass is often debunking the hype of global warming.    

[Jesse]

00z is looking like a pretty significant outlier for next weekend on the ensembles. The majority seem to want to keep us in a troughy pattern throughout.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cliff Mass takes a shot at explaining the lack of arctic outbreaks in the last couple decades...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/05/decreasing-cold-waves-most-potent-sign.html

Depressing

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00z is looking like a pretty significant outlier for next weekend on the ensembles. The majority seem to want to keep us in a troughy pattern throughout.

 

819354AD-AA48-4148-B104-A0A306C4C851.png

 

I'm really liking the look of that big Tuesday night crash, could bring our most intense rain in awhile.

[Phil]

Seems like Cliff Mass is often debunking the hype of global warming.

Okay, but he blamed the +AO/western ridging on CO^2, and claimed that enhanced Arctic warming is somehow unique to radiative forcing from GHGes.

 

Both of those claims are outrageous, especially the second one. These exact climatic boundary conditions have been reproduced by the system many times during the mid/late Holocene, without any anthropogenic help. It’s very clear in the majority of proxy reconstructions.

[Jesse]

I'm really liking the look of that big Tuesday night crash, could bring our most intense rain in awhile.

Yes I honestly can’t wait.

[Phil]

IMHO, we’d probably be better off dropping climate models altogether, in favor of more thorough paleoclimatology..IE: “climate analoging”. It’s amazing how many of these ocean-atmosphere oscillations have remained (largely) stable over hundreds of thousands of years.

 

In some cases, the empirical orthogonal functions are largely the same, even from interglacial to interglacial. It’s baffling, but potentially very convenient for us if we’d just drop the obsession with garbage climate models.

[Phil]

[MossMan]

First morning at the new place! Just lovely, and so quiet other than the birds singing! Sun!

[ShawniganLake]

Bit of a model battle ongoing for next weekend. GFS hasn’t backed down yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like it may be a solid wkend

[ShawniganLake]

Looking at a few webcams up near our family cabin at Watch Lake. Looks like the ice is out. Locals say the first week of May is pretty standard but it is a little late from more recent years

[TT-SEA]

Bit of a model battle ongoing for next weekend. GFS hasn’t backed down yet.

12Z GFS is totally on board with warmth next weekend. Even the rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday looks unimpressive.

[Jesse]

12Z GFS is totally on board with warmth next weekend. Even the rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday looks unimpressive.

 

Looks absolutely disgusting.

[Jesse]

Fortunately the 06z ensembles looked great. Hoping the operational GFS is an outlier again.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks absolutely disgusting.

Looks beautiful... lots of outdoor activities for Mother's Day!

[Jesse]

I guess we are also ignoring the EPS completely.

[TT-SEA]

I guess we are also ignoring the EPS completely.

The EPS was warm for next weekend. Of course it looks muted. Always does after day 5 or 6. Not cold and wet. That is all I care about.

[Jesse]

The EPS was warm for next weekend. Of course it looks muted. Always does after day 5 or 6. Not cold and wet. That is all I care about.

The weekend will probably be dry and sunny , but do we really need to have another ******* heatwave.

[TT-SEA]

The weekend will probably be dry and sunny , but do we really need to have another f***** heatwave.

I don't care really about the temperature.

 

As long as the sun is out and it's dry then I am happy.

[ShawniganLake]

Fortunately the 06z ensembles looked great. Hoping the operational GFS is an outlier again.

 

161A9051-D7F0-42CC-85DB-CEC001A7B4AA.png

12z ensemble looks pretty close to climo. Operational is a warm outlier but there are a few more warm members.

[Phil]

FWIW, roughly 1/3rd of the 00z EPS members develop western ridging of near record breaking amplitude (at/above the 90th percentile in the normal distribution of 500mb height anomalies). That’s pretty significant.

 

There’s a decent chance that western North America will actually be “ridgiest” region on the planet this month, relative to average. One of the last gasps of our old WPAC/off-equator forcing regime, in that regard.

[Jesse]

FWIW, roughly 1/3rd of the 00z EPS members develop western ridging of near record breaking amplitude (at/above the 90th percentile in the normal distribution of 500mb height anomalies). That’s pretty significant.

 

There’s a decent chance that western North America will actually be “ridgiest” region on the planet this month, relative to average. One last throwback to the old regime in that regard, I guess. It’s going down kicking and screaming.

You’ve been saying this stuff for years. Just one more record warm month then western troughing forever.

[Phil]

You’ve been spewing this nonsense for years. Just one more record warm month then western troughing forever.

It probably feels like years to you.

 

In reality I’ve only been saying it since February.

[Jesse]

It probably feels like years to you.

 

In reality I’ve only been saying if since February.

Nah. 2013 was going to be the big year that we turned the corner. Then 2016, then 2017. Now we are in the middle of 2018 and you are still dangling the carrot. I have trouble buying it.

[Deweydog]

We've got a cynic!

[Deweydog]

Anyone want a Costco dog?

[Jesse]

We've got a cynic!

Relish these moments.

[Deweydog]

Relish these moments.

Mustard?

[Jesse]

Mustard?

Are you at the one on 192nd?

[Deweydog]

Are you at the one on 192nd?

Airport Way.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles show the operational as an outlier, but more members seem to be trending that way. At this point it’s probably safe to bet on another heat wave.