May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Are you bored today?

 

There has been nothing "technical" about the wetness up here. Its been wet. Whether it rains .45 (dry) or 1.10 (wet) in July is not really meaningful in the big picture.

 

And for the record... July 2016 was not hot and last year everyone said that July could not have been more pleasant.

 

Your anxiety is allowing you to lump it all together.

Blah blah blah blah.

[TT-SEA]

Blah blah blah blah.

 

 

Right back at you... you are really on a roll today!  

[Jesse]

Probably one of the nicest days of the month today.

[El Nina]

Probably one of the nicest days of the month today.

Tomorrow could top it.

[Jesse]

Tomorrow could top it.

*Could* see some light afternoon showers.

[MossMan]

Nice day!

[Front Ranger]

Wet will win though... 2014-2017 was VERY wet.

Wet anomalies will always win out for yearly stats.

 

However, I would argue the sheer number of record or near record dry months and multi-month stretches in 2014-18 has been equally impressive as the wet periods.

[El Nina]

*Could* see some light afternoon showers.

That would be otherworldly.

[TT-SEA]

Wet anomalies will always win out for yearly stats.

 

However, I would argue the sheer number of record or near record dry months and multi-month stretches in 2014-18 has been equally impressive as the wet periods.

 

 

Not always... we do have drier than normal years obviously.  

 

But the last 4 years have been crazy wet overall.

[Front Ranger]

[TT-SEA]

You're missing the point (all things being equal), instead choosing to hammer home your same old one over and over.

 

 

I did not bring it up... Jesse brought up the 2013-2017 period again.    I am not going to change my mind and say it was actually dry but wet on a technicality.   The last 4 years are the wettest 4 years in SEA history.   That is not a technicality.   

 

If people don't want to hear about it then they should stop bringing it up.   

[Deweydog]

I think it's safe to say it's been dry when/where it's been dry and wet when/where it's been wet.

 

I win!

[Front Ranger]

I did not bring it up... Jesse brought up the 2013-2017 period again.    I am not going to change my mind and say it was actually dry but wet on a technicality.   The last 4 years are the wettest 4 years in SEA history.   That is not a technicality.   

 

If people don't want to hear about it then they should stop bringing it up.   

 

It keeps coming up partly because you refuse to acknowledge anything other than 2014-17 was wet. 

 

Completely dismissing the rather impressive dry periods that also have occurred comes across as pretty narrow-minded. There has been nuance to these discussions, but that's not usually your cup of tea. 

 

You just come across as: "2014-17 WAS WET, THAT TRUMPS ANYTHING ANYONE ELSE SAYS."

[TT-SEA]

It keeps coming up partly because you refuse to acknowledge anything other than 2014-17 was wet. 

 

Completely dismissing the rather impressive dry periods that also have occurred comes across as pretty narrow-minded. There has been nuance to these discussions, but that's not usually your cup of tea. 

 

You just come across as: "2014-17 WAS WET, THAT TRUMPS ANYTHING ANYONE ELSE SAYS."

 

You are just keeping this going.   I never said it was non-stop wet.    There were clearly significant dry periods in there as well.   Where did I ever say anything different?

 

None of that changes the fact that it was the wettest 4-year period in SEA history and every year in that period was significantly above normal in terms of rainfall.   

 

There are warm periods in cold years... there are dry periods in wet years... etc.  

[El Nina]

It was 39 this morning.

[El Nina]

I killed the forum.

[Front Ranger]

You are just keeping this going.   I never said it was non-stop wet.    There were clearly significant dry periods in there as well.   Where did I ever say anything different?

 

None of that changes the fact that it was the wettest 4-year period in SEA history and every year in that period was significantly above normal in terms of rainfall.   

 

There are warm periods in cold years... there are dry periods in wet years... etc.  

 

It keeps going because anytime anyone brings up the exceptional warmth and dryness during recent warm seasons, you feel the need to counter with the same argument - BUT IT WAS SUCH A WET 4 YEARS.

 

Yes, we get it. That doesn't mean the warmth/dryness didn't happen when it did, and it doesn't make the wet periods more impressive than the dry periods. The annual stats, believe it or not, are not necessarily the bottom line to the story.

 

Let's just say you have a real gift of repetition. 

[TT-SEA]

Anytime anyone brings up the exceptional warmth and dryness during recent warm seasons, you feel the need to counter with the same argument - BUT IT WAS A WET 4 YEARS.

 

Yes, we get it. That doesn't mean the warmth/dryness didn't happen, and it doesn't make the wet periods more impressive than the dry periods.

 

That is not what happened today.   

[Front Ranger]

That is not what happened today.   

 

Sure it is.

 

Jesse made a joke about you controlling the weather since 2013, obviously alluding to the warmth, and you once again felt the need to counter with all the wet periods since then. Then I made a joke about you making that your signature, and I'll make mine about the dry periods. Jesse pointed out that you're emphasizing the annual stats to downplay the warm/dry warm seasons. And you doubled down on the wet annual stats...again.

 

And here we are.

[TT-SEA]

Sure it is.

 

Jesse made a joke about you controlling the weather since 2013, obviously alluding to the warmth, and you once again felt the need to counter with all the wet periods since then. Then I made a joke about you making that your signature, and I'll make mine about the dry periods. Jesse pointed out that you're emphasizing the annual stats to downplay the warm/dry warm seasons. And you doubled down on the wet annual stats...again.

 

And here we are.

 

Jesse made a joke about me controlling the weather since 2013 and I played along and said that if I was controlling the weather then it would not have been so wet and obviously I am not controlling the weather.    Could have just left it there.  

 

But you seem hell bent on proving to me that there were dry periods in our very wet span over the last 4 years.   I understand there have been dry periods... never said otherwise.    We get it.  

 

So here we are.   

[ShawniganLake]

I saw a billboard today and it said. “Please Mother Nature, send us some rain”

[TT-SEA]

I saw a billboard today and it said. “Please Mother Nature, send us some rain”

 

If June comes in dry like May... then you can bet that August will be wet.

 

We generally get 3 really dry months.    This year it might be MJJ... sort of like 2015 (at least in the Seattle area). 

 

In years like 2011 and 2012, we had to wait until JAS.   

 

2009 was right in the middle with JJA.   

 

Last year was actually mid June - mid September here.

[Jesse]

If June comes in dry like May... then you can bet that August will be wet.

 

We generally get 3 really dry months. This year it might be MJJ... sort of like 2015 (at least in the Seattle area).

 

In years like 2011 and 2012, we had to wait until JAS.

 

2009 was right in the middle with JJA.

 

Last year was actually mid June - mid September here.

When was the last time a regionally wet August occurred? They basically don’t happen anymore.

[Jesse]

I saw a billboard today and it said. “Please Mother Nature, send us some rain”

I would estimate 95% of the population would disagree with this.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows mountain and foothill showers tomorrow afternoon.

 

Then Friday and Saturday are totally dry... maybe close to 80 up here and in the low 80s down in SW WA and Oregon on Saturday.    That was a day that looked cold and wet just a few days ago.  

 

Then it shows a quick warm up Sunday morning followed by a front and band of rain from BLI to EUG by early evening that quickly moves out by later in the evening.   

 

Then a bunch of c-zone fun up here Monday.  

[TT-SEA]

When was the last time a regionally wet August occurred? They basically don’t happen anymore.

 

Not sure.  

 

Looking at the historical data in my area... there is almost always is a 3 month stretch with sparse rain but it moves around from year to year (MMJ, JJA, JAS).   

 

In 1993 it was actually August - October (ASO).    Go figure.   

 

I have a feeling this is a MMJ year.     

[Jesse]

Not sure.

 

Looking at the historical data in my area... there is almost always is a 3 month stretch with sparse rain but it moves around from year to year (MMJ, JJA, JAS).

 

In 1993 it was actually August - October (ASO). Go figure.

 

I have a feeling this is a MMJ year.

Your area is wetter than most of the region.

[TT-SEA]

Your area is wetter than most of the region.

 

 

But we are not disconnected from the region.   

 

When its dry here... its usually dry across the region so it can be useful information for you.   But you just dismiss everything I say about my area.     Being wet here does not mean its wet elsewhere.   I fully understand that.  But dry patterns here usually mean its dry for you as well.  

 

Back in April... I said that the screaming message based on the the Jan - Apr period here was that May was going to be dry in my area.   That likely meant May was going to be dry for you as well.   And for the Seattle area.    I gave you heads up... but you just ignored it.   

[TT-SEA]

Sunday afternoon through Monday morning seems to be the best chance for any meaningful rain for the Portland area and southward per the 00Z ECMWF.

 

After that... all the rain is to the north.   Its actually mostly north of here as well.   Focused on the NW WA coast, Vancouver Island, and SW BC after Monday.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00Z ECMWF shows mountain and foothill showers tomorrow afternoon.

 

Then Friday and Saturday are totally dry... maybe close to 80 up here and in the low 80s down in SW WA and Oregon on Saturday. That was a day that looked cold and wet just a few days ago.

 

Then it shows a quick warm up Sunday morning followed by a front and band of rain from BLI to EUG by early evening that quickly moves out by later in the evening.

 

Then a bunch of c-zone fun up here Monday.

Nice, glad to see at least one day this weekend will be sunny. We need the rain but I was hoping the rain and clouds would hold off until Monday but that's okay.

[Jesse]

Need a barf bag for the 00z Euro.

[ShawniganLake]

I would estimate 95% of the population would disagree with this.

You might be right

[TT-SEA]

This 500mb pattern has resulted in 2 days with a 0 departure at SEA, WFO SEA, BLI, and HQM.     The first days of the month that were not above normal at those stations.    Troughing and below normal 850mb temps only seem to get the Puget Sound area down to normal in the warm season.   

 

 

 

Farther south... OLM, PDX, and SLE all had a respectable negative departure of -4 yesterday.  

[MossMan]

Need a barf bag for the 00z Euro.

Here you go!

[Front Ranger]

Jesse made a joke about me controlling the weather since 2013 and I played along and said that if I was controlling the weather then it would not have been so wet and obviously I am not controlling the weather.    Could have just left it there.  

 

But you seem hell bent on proving to me that there were dry periods in our very wet span over the last 4 years.   I understand there have been dry periods... never said otherwise.    We get it.  

 

So here we are.   

 

But you didn't...you had another lengthy response to Jesse after that. Making the same point, again.

 

Oh, Tim. 

[Front Ranger]

Not sure.  

 

Looking at the historical data in my area... there is almost always is a 3 month stretch with sparse rain but it moves around from year to year (MMJ, JJA, JAS).   

 

In 1993 it was actually August - October (ASO).    Go figure.   

 

I have a feeling this is a MMJ year.     

 

It might take a lot of that for some here to get through the rest of the warm season...

 

[Front Ranger]

When was the last time a regionally wet August occurred? They basically don’t happen anymore.

 

2015 was wetter than normal most places from SLE north. 2013 was also a bit wetter than normal for a good deal of the western lowlands.

 

But if you want the last true soaker of an August for most the region, you'd probably have to go back to 2008.

 

[TT-SEA]

But you didn't...you had another lengthy response to Jesse after that. Making the same point, again.

 

Oh, Tim.

Not true. I made one post in response to Jesse's post just to play along. You intervened then to make sure that I knew there were dry periods in 2014-17. Got it!

[Deweydog]

*****SPRINKLES*****

[Front Ranger]

Not true. I made one post in response to Jesse's post just to play along. You intervened then to make sure that I knew there were dry periods in 2014-17. Got it!

 

This is not correct. Maybe you just don't realize how repetitive you are?

 

 

Nah... we would not have had the wettest April - August ever in 2014 and the wettest rainy season in history in 2015-16 and then beat that record in 2016-17 and had then had the wettest April ever here in 2018 if that were true.   

 

 

Wet will win though... 2014-2017 was VERY wet.  

 

 

Are you bored today?  

 

There has been nothing "technical" about the wetness up here.    Its been wet.   Whether it rains .45 (dry) or 1.10 (wet) in July is not really meaningful in the big picture.

 

And for the record... July 2016 was not hot and last year everyone said that July could not have been more pleasant.

 

Your anxiety is allowing you to lump it all together.    I know there have been many nice periods in the last 4 years.   And its been very wet as well.