TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 It's almost like the dry season has been drier than normal and the wet season has been wetter than normal. Who knew..... This true for 2015-2017. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 We get it... you hate the heat there so much that you would like to be locked in a freezer until you die. The rest of us don't need some crazy extreme the other way. Don’t knock it ‘till you try it. Tens of thousands of people live up there and claim to enjoy it. And it’s very impressive up there right now. Much of Northeast Canada is still snow/ice covered. Last year at this time it had already melted up to 62-63N. This is surprisingly late to see a healthy snowpack up there, and we will be adding to it this week. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Hmm, looks like the "let's freeze our asses off" crowd has a shot at winning this round... Oh well, won't be the last round of ridging this summer.. The only good news that I could find is that 12Z EPS did not trend cooler. Comparing frame by frame between the 00Z EPS and 12Z EPS... the 12Z run was just slightly faster and warmer. So maybe the trend will stop now? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Don’t knock it ‘till you try it. Tems of thousands of people live up there and claim to enjoy it. Baffin Island population is 11,000. Mostly native Inuit... who don't know anything else and have never left. The population of Florida alone is almost 21 million and many of them claim to love it as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Baffin Island population is 11,000. Mostly native Inuit... who don't know anything else and have never left. The population of Florida alone is almost 21 million and many of them claim to love it as well. Yeah, it gets a bad rap because of people like you. In reality it’s one of the most scenic and all-around beautiful places on the planet. Largely undisturbed by humans thanks to the epic polar hurricanes that occur year-round. (I’m mostly trolling, but I’d love to spend a year up there, just to see what it’s like. Haha). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Last OT post, but interesting that (based on ESRL/NCAR reanalyis v-2c) the last six years have been the most consistently cold and snowy across Baffin Island and Greenland since at least 1861. Talk about an anomalous circulation! With so much cold air available up there, it’s no wonder that record cold is still occurring across much of North America during the winter in spite of warmer global temperatures. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Skewed by a couple huge ridges that did not last long. Yes, and 2014-17 rain totals were skewed each year by a few exceptionally wet periods, that did not in fact represent the entire year well. But I would argue if you get a couple of huge ridges in one month, that's not skewing anything. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Warm season rainfall summary (May-Sept of 2013-17 combined): SEA: 33.96 (-.14 departure) PDX: 33.76 (+.06 departure) Yes... its been much warmer than normal. But warm season rainfall over the last 5 years has been almost perfectly normal at SEA and PDX. Very wet rainy seasons and normal precip in the warm seasons has been the overall theme for the last 5 years. How about number of wet days compared to normal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Just barely drier than normal in western WA. The anomalies are just "barely" anything anywhere. It's standardized anomalies over a 4 year period. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 This true for 2015-2017. And 2014-17...the period you keep repeating for your wet stats. Why do you feel the need to include 2013 for warm season stats? Feels like cherry-picking. Why not include 2013 for the annual stats? At least keep the comparison years the same either way. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Looking at the warm season at SEA (May - Sept)... since 2013 there has been 12 out of 26 months above normal for rainfall. Almost half of the warm season months have been wetter than normal. Not quite the picture you are painting of heavy rain all winter and then bone dry warm seasons... at least up here.That's called getting half an inch on one day out of 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 And 2014-17...the period you keep repeating for your wet stats. Why do you feel the need to include 2013 for warm season stats? Feels like cherry-picking. Why not include 2013 for the annual stats? At least keep the comparison years the same either way. Here is precip at SEA by month for the 2014-17 period... blue is wetter than normal and red is drier than normal: Looks like December, January, and September have been the most persistently dry months. Two of those in the heart of the rainy season and one at the end of the warm season. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Here is PDX: The persistently dry months have been January, May, June, and August. With February, March, July, and October being the reliably wet months. March and October have not failed at all. A much different picture than SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Here is precip at SEA by month for the 2014-17 period... blue is wetter than normal and red is drier than normal: Looks like December, January, and September have been the most persistently dry months. Two of those in the heart of the rainy season and one at the end of the warm season. Yep, and mainly because May-Jul 2015 and Jul-Sep 2017 were record-breaking dry, when you add it all up the warm seasons over the past 4 years have been drier than normal. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Ginger helps with nausea. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 12z EPS is even slower with the ULL than the operational. And flatter with the eventual ridge. Great trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 The only good news that I could find is that 12Z EPS did not trend cooler. Comparing frame by frame between the 00Z EPS and 12Z EPS... the 12Z run was just slightly faster and warmer. So maybe the trend will stop now? 12z EPS is even slower with the ULL than the operational. And flatter with the eventual ridge. Great trends. You both like the 12z EPS. This is weird and frankly a little concerning. 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 12z EPS is even slower with the ULL than the operational. And flatter with the eventual ridge. Great trends. Yeah... seems a little slower at the 500mb level when comparing it to the 00Z run. But the 850mb temp mean is slightly warmer on the 12Z run compared to the 00Z run... at least for Saturday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Pleasant afternoon with mid to upper 60s. Noticed the freeze warnings up for NE Washington tonight. Brrrr Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 This could have significant implications for the tropical forcing, during the second half of summer in particular. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 This could have significant implications for the tropical forcing, during the second half of summer in particular. Hott August/September back on the table? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Outlines of Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish clearly showing up on the visible satellite image... clouds over land but not over the cooler water surface. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Outlines of Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish clearly showing up on the visible satellite image... clouds over land but not over the cooler water surface. That’s pretty cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 It would be interesting if it actually works out like the 18Z is showing over the weekend. I mentioned earlier that the 12Z ECMWF shows the same thing... with Moses Lake at 68 with showers on Sunday and Seattle in the mid 80s with sunshine. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 It would be interesting if it actually works out like the 18Z is showing over the weekend. I mentioned earlier that the 12Z ECMWF shows the same thing... with Moses Lake at 68 with showers on Sunday and Seattle in the mid 80s with sunshine. Wow, yeah, I wonder when the last time that happened, with western being almost 20 degrees warmer than eastern WA and sunny west, while raining east... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 So it looks like on the 18z gfs, the ull finally scoots on outta here, and is replaced with this. With so many recent models showing warmth building over our area, it's hard to imagine any further ebbing away of the warmth. Low 90's is nice, mid 90's would be even better,.. 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 It would be interesting if it actually works out like the 18Z is showing over the weekend. I mentioned earlier that the 12Z ECMWF shows the same thing... with Moses Lake at 68 with showers on Sunday and Seattle in the mid 80s with sunshine. Hope you didn’t make any reservations for over there this weekend! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Hope you didn’t make any reservations for over there this weekend! We did not. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 That time of the year when the wild foxglove are blooming all over this area... pretty much anywhere there is a clearing. Behind our garden for example... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 That time of the year when the wild foxglove are blooming all over this area... pretty much anywhere there is a clearing. Behind our garden for example... If you wait for a bumblebee to go in one then pinch it shut, it'll think it's nighttime and go to sleep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 If you wait for a bumblebee to go in one then pinch it shut, it'll think it's nighttime and go to sleep. You should wash your hands afterward, foxglove is quite toxic. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 You should wash your hands afterward, foxglove is quite toxic. Yeah... we never touch them. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 Yeah... we never touch them.They aren’t that bad. Just don’t eat them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 Leaves of three let them be! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 Even with a troughalicious first 10 days of the month, Tim's area is still running WELL below normal for rain! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 Even with a troughalicious first 10 days of the month, Tim's area is still running WELL below normal for rain! MonthPNormWRCC-NW.pngIndeed... barely keeping pace with SEA in total rain. The road side grass which quickly turns brown every summer here is still lush green... so it's not dry in my area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 Set in stone: https://on.kgw.com/2HGN37X Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 Set in stone:https://on.kgw.com/2HGN37XCautiously optimistic... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 Cautiously optimistic...Rod Hill is kinda nutty. This pattern is pretty shaky for major heat. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 Rod Hill is kinda nutty. This pattern is pretty shaky for major heat. I would be surprised to see a "streak" of triple digit heat. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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