PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The meteorological committee of Sharon Springs, KS was one of the largest financial backers for the production of the 96th hour of tonight's 00z GFS.

My older daughters great grandparents live in Sharon Springs. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Weiner Warrior]

Day 11... the hammer is going to drop

[TacomaWx]

Leaving for orcas island tomorrow morning. I think there’s a very high chance they get snow up in the higher elevations while I’m up there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Day 11... the hammer is going to drop

Yep!

[RentonHill]

Kold flow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Kold flow

Arctic hounds. 

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

this run sucks toss it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

this run sucks toss it

Ugh 

[TacomaWx]

Shaping up to be another pretty dry month…but the mountains have gotten some decent snows recently and will in the next few days. Just 0.93” MTD…with the gfs,cmc and euro all showing 1/2” or less over the next 10 days. We really haven’t had any anomalously wet weather since last spring. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ve seen worse.

[snow_wizard]

Now the period around the 18th is trending colder on the 850s.  Just a cold looking period in general coming up.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ve seen worse.

Ya think?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Shaping up to be another pretty dry month…but the mountains have gotten some decent snows recently and will in the next few days. Just 0.93” MTD…with the gfs,cmc and euro all showing 1/2” or less over the next 10 days. We really haven’t had any anomalously wet weather since last spring. 

We were due.  Way overdue in fact.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We were due.  Way overdue in fact.

@Skagit Weather actually pulled up some pretty good data a few days ago on how that’s not necessarily true. 

[snow_wizard]

This run shows a nice snow event for the Seattle area around the 23rd.  Lots of chances coming up.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

@Skagit Weather actually pulled up some pretty good data a few days ago on how that’s not necessarily true. 

I'm just going by perception.  Other than summer it has been really wet it seems like.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like maybe some 11:59pm lows this evening at least in the Willamette Valley. Down to 34 at SLE. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This run shows a nice snow event for the Seattle area around the 23rd.  Lots of chances coming up.

I really want snow early this coming week to make it more believable!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm just going by perception.  Other than summer it has been really wet it seems like.

Well there’s been some gloom at times and light rains…but they haven’t amounted to much. Besides December that came just barely short of average rainfall…every month has been below normal since June. We haven’t had more than 0.39” of rain in a day since 12/24. Only 10 days since October with 1/2” of rain or more as well which is pretty unusual. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I really want snow early this coming week to make it more believable!

It sure looks like there will be something on V Day morning.  Pretty legit cold air mass we are dealing with there.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well there’s been some gloom at times and light rains…but they haven’t amounted to much. Besides December that came just barely short of average rainfall…every month has been below normal since June. We haven’t had more than 0.39” of rain in a day since 12/24. Only 10 days since October with 1/2” of rain or more as well which is pretty unusual. 

I meant the last several years.  I already acknowledged this season has been dry.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like maybe some 11:59pm lows this evening at least in the Willamette Valley. Down to 34 at SLE. 

I pulled off a 30 this morning.  Looks like a ton of cold mins coming up.

[Perturbed Member]

Nice to see the models trending juicer and in favor of accumulating snow down to the lowest elevations down here. Would be pretty great if the Willamette valley could score a decent little event out of this. Still some time left over for the models to trend a bit wetter with that development. 

00z GRAF came in at 2.4 inches for PDX.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day Threeve (4-run trend)

 

[snow_wizard]

I think people misread my post about all seasons being wetter than normal up here except summer in recent years.  When I said we were due on that post, I meant we were due for the dry season we have been seeing this year.  Not that we were due for a run of dry weather this winter.

[Blizzard777]

Mount Hood Friday evening….always love the rocky frozen Craig’s! 

[Gradient Keeper]

16 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

 

Celebrity jeopardy skits were the best! RIP Norm!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Mount Hood Friday evening….always love the rocky frozen Craig’s! 

That's what winter is all about right there!  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

Put another way.  We are having a drier than normal fall / winter in the Seattle area which we were due for.  This is in contrast to the recent wet seasons we have been seeing.  Summers on the other hand have been quite dry lately.

Obviously OR has been a lot drier than it has up here overall.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Put another way.  We are having a drier than normal fall / winter in the Seattle area which we were due for.  This is in contrast to the recent wet seasons we have been seeing.  Summers on the other hand have been quite dry lately.

Obviously OR has been a lot drier than it has up here overall.

Yup.

[Slushy Inch]

Nice GEFS.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS run digs the late month trough more sharply than previous runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but timing is certainly moving ahead with the second much colder arctic trough digging south.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive to see Fraser outflow on an ensemble mean over 10 days out.